Well, that's one way to characterize Fangraphs projections. Not sure I read them the same way.
Yanks - 91 Wins
Jays- 88
Rays- 88
Red Sox- 83
Orioles- 78
I don't think Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin are going to keep them as competitive as you think. The 78 wins is basically the exact same team they were last year, they just got lucky on their Pythagorean record. Since they didn't make any adds of any significance it makes sense that they are the same team again this year.