Terminator

https://www.tsn.ca/mlb/scott-mitchell-top-50-blue-jays-prospects-of-2024-1.2064424 Scott Mitchell has apparently been doing a Top 50 Jays prospects list since 2019. This year's version is out now.

You laugh but the Mariners are preparing an offer after reading the Heyman tweet

I don't follow other sports as closely as MLB but it seems like MLB reporters are the biggest group of useful idiots out of any league. Is that correct? This tweet has Duvall's agent all over it, clearly leaking this to Heyman to see if he can get another team involved in the bidding.

I'm not opposed to taking him. We could play him at 2B and move Schneider to a UT role or even DH. But he is a negative asset at this point since he is signed through his age 36 season so the Padres would have to add something. Or maybe we take Manoah off the table and just give them a bunch of slop for Kim and Cronenworth. Horwitz, Espinal, Garcia, etc.

I thought the fastball was rated really really bad. I haven't seen an exact number on it but Eno was alluding to it like it was graded anywhere from 65-75.

-Manoah, Yimi Garcia and Ernie Clement or Espinal for Kim and try like hell to extend him -Sign Ryu to a one year deal -Sign a cheap DH in February when the music stops The playoffs will be easy to make.

Yeah that makes sense. You've basically got to throw all of your pitches from the same delivery/slot/release point too so sometimes there is only so much you can do to change the shape of your pitches before you start tipping them.

Yeah that makes sense. Francisco Liriano was a good starting pitcher for about a decade by adopting a sinker as his main heater to go with his elite slider. He also had a change up to go along with a 4 seamer. Seems like Yariel's fastball may have some ride/cut potential so maybe he can throw it high to get some outs occasionally to go along with a sinker/slider.

Hmm...it's kind of a difficult exercise bc we are talking about on paper heading into the year. So using that I kind of see it as the following. Better Depth in 2024 -This year we've got one questionable guy penciled into the rotation (Manoah) and last year we had two (Berrios and Kooch). -Added Yariel Rodriguez. Atkins just bet 32 mil bucks that this guy will be good SP depth and given his record with FA pitchers I'm inclined to believe him. -Francis had a good year and is easily counted on as solid depth this year over last year. His 2022 was almost a complete bust outside of a good winter ball performance which is tough to count on. -Tiedemann was too far away last year. He didn't have a great year by any means, but he did progress closer to the bigs. He's better depth this year than last. -Chad Dallas had a good year. He's probably better depth this year than what Francis was entering '23. -Offseason isn't done yet so there could be further improvements. Same: -Is White seen as better depth entering 2023 or entering 2024? I'd say he's about the same. -Hutchison wasn't seen as anything. We'll sign some turds like him in February. -Are Macko and Van Eyk better AA depth guys than what we had last year? I don't really recall so I'll leave them in this category but it seems like they could be better. 2023 was better: -Thompson was seen as a possible decent #7-8 SP or so but never showed he could do that. I'll give you that one. -Zulueta was seen as a possible midseason guy and now is a reliever. I'll give you that one too. -I was banging on the Ryu midseason drum but few agreed with me. We can count him but he wasn't expected to do much. Seems like the depth heading into this year is far better, right? Now of course, we are going to see some negative regression with the staff IMO. BUT, I do think our depth is a better to help deal with that.

Yeah I've been reading this as well and also see the comparisons to Steele. If he can't get his fastball fixed, could he still be an elite reliever? Either a late inning guy or multi-inning guy? By just throwing his flat fastball harder (97+ mpg) to go with what looks like a very good slider? I think the good thing is that in the WBC (where his stat cast data is coming from) he probably wasn't working with MLB caliber pitching labs. So hopefully we can make some tweaks and see some improvement with the fastball.

I think you are both right to a degree. Last year the starting pitcher depth was so freaking bad. This year it's still not good, but it's miles better. If we get wrecked in ST we will be in some trouble. But let's say Manoah sucks again AND anyone other than Gausman gets hurt in June or later (when Yariel and Tiedemann are both potentially ready) and I think we should be okay. That's really about as good of depth as any team can hope for outside of the top few. A lot of teams, and even some playoff contenders, don't even have competent 4s and 5s. The bad teams sometimes don't even have 1 or 2 capable starters.

Kind of hard to remember it all but last year entering the season: -The rotation was a big concern. We didn't know that Manoah had eaten his way to Buffalo yet but even so there were major concerns about Berrios and especially Kikuchi. -There were also concerns about the starting pitching depth which was razor thin. -The bullpen was also a concern. Fresh off the heels of the Game 2 collapse, the Atkins haters were slamming him almost daily because he "can't build a bullpen." -The offense wasn't a concern. It was only when the offense was in that bizarre RISP drought that the haters switched from the bullpen (which had established itself as possible the best in baseball by that point) to throwing tantrums over the offense. A year later: -We are a pitching and defense team. -Elite bullpen. -Pitching depth is miles better (though still not great). -Now there are concerns about the offense which IMO are overestimated. We likely lose Matt Chapman so my guess is that on paper the team is slightly worse on paper entering this year. Last year's team had the chance to be pretty damn special if Vlad, Kirk, Varsho and Manoah all didn't s*** the bed to the degree they did because the rest of the offseason moves worked out well. But my guess is that we get positive regression (which will outweigh any possible negative regression from some) and end up with a similar or better record than last year's team anyway.

Yeah if we need him to start early in the year then he could do it. His WBC performance showed he could be that 3-5 inning guy. BUT -He will have an innings limit (100-120?) after pitching 55 innings in 2022 and not at all last year really -He's a young asset on a 4 year deal who we will want to protect, easier to do that if he opens in the minors -Him starting will be a bit of an experiment, also might be easier to break him in in Buffalo. Though ST will tell us how ready he is as well. -If he's good I'd rather have his innings later in the year rather than the beginning as I think Manoah, Francis or White can probably hold the fort down early on in the year.

The Orioles just spent all of their FA money on a closer.

It does have a certain level of FA sticker shock where we are paying for an extra year that I'd rather not BUT -Clemens had him as the #33 FA getting 3/30 -Hicks (seems like a decent comp actually) just got 4 years 44 mil -He's entering his age 27 season -Elite slider which should help him at least be a good reliever -He actually has a deep repertoire which could make him a viable backend SP. Going to have to hope that fastball is Justin Steele-esque and that his splitter develops to get lefties out.

4/32 isn't bad. Clemens had him getting 3/30.

Ok if Rosenthal says it's official then we can take it to the bank that Yariel is a Jay.

As of now this is probably how I see the depth chart but things could change in a hurry. #5- Manoah LR- White AAA- Francis AAA and ready by midseason- Yariel and Tiedemann 40/45s who could debut this year- Chad Dallas, Macko, Van Eyk

One would think that Yariel is going to have a big innings restriction this year. He was a reliever in 2022 and didn't pitch in 2023. If this is a 4 year deal the team is investing a lot into him and they need to manage the asset accordingly. Sounds like the plan is for him to start so I would start him off in Buffalo and let him build up from there. Perhaps 3 inning starts until he can eventually throw 5 or 6 innings. Target the 2nd half of the season for his MLB debut.

Currently talking myself into Yariel Rodriguez as a backend starter with a 60-80 pitch limit. https://www.mlb.com/video/yariel-rodriguez-s-six-strikeouts

I've seen everything from backend starter to high leverage reliever with Yariel so he might be the kind of starting depth we need while also being versatile enough to contribute in the pen until called upon.

Lantigua is an org guy like Vinny Capra. Puts up some good OBP numbers in the minors and might be able to contribute while he has some options but overall they are flawed players that probably won’t contribute more than that.

In his career Springer has a 105 wRC+ in 50 ABs as a DH or something. It's not that bad.

I'm down for the Chapman side of the equation. Would probably go with Horwitz as the DH or something like that. Or maybe you just wait until February and a DH bat for 5 mil comes along.