Olerud363

This s*** is so stupid. This has nothing to do with being a saber nerd. What f***ing reason is there for teams not to pitch Vlad as tough as possible? Vlad's on base percentage was .400 last year. It is around .350 this year. If the idea is to keep him off base for Teo... then they will pitch him the same way they are now, because it's effective. Your the one who is acting like you've never played. On every team, at every level, they don't give into guys who swing at border line pitches. Right now they don't give a f*** if Teo is behind Vlad or not. They're pitching him tough and will continue that, until he takes those pitches (and gets favourable calls) and gets himself into hitters counts consistently. No way they change until Vlad forces them to change by being a bit more patient. It has nothing to do with Hernandez behind him.

Well, we assume Bo knows he's bad but it is also up to the coaching staff to give him the right psychological and physical help to fix it. Maybe Charlie's playing the bongo's at night and laughing at 'Bo being Bo' while Aarone Boone would be in the video room with the hitting coach working out drills for Bo to work on the next day, developing plans for each plate appearance and having Bo see the team sports psychologist. I don't think that's the case, just saying that if you had a manager and coaching staff who weren't giving players resources for optimal performance, then that would be a scenario you'd consider replacing the coaches.

Two themes lately - RBIsss are very important. Protection is very important. Why not 2 birds with one stone? Get an RBI guy protector. I would trade for Jose Abreu -- he is worth about 3 WAR using the so-called advanced stats, but when you factor in the importance of RBIs and protection he would be 10 WAR. Here is how it works. Vladdy is returning to 2020 Vladdy, a 3 WAR .270 hitter... however as people have pointed out Vladdy doesn't have protection. Thus they don't pitch to him and he hits .270 .340 .500. However if he had protection they would pitch to him... thus he would hit .320 .420 .600. Now, think of it. With Abreu behind him, Vladdy's War probably doubles (he is being pitched to), they are so scared of Abreu, they will pitch to Vladdy, increasing his on base percentage so he's on base for Abreu, and Abreau would get 140 rbis. Valddy - goes form 3 WAR to 6 WAR with Abreu because they pitch to him and increase his on base Abreu - has Vladdy on base and gets 140 rbis RBIs are very important and add 3 more extra wins.

It reminds me of 2019 where pretty much everyone, Brandon Drury, Young Vlad, Grichuk, Teoscar, Bill Mickinney was under performing with bad on base percentages and yes... they all looked like Kevin Pillar... or worse. Don't get me wrong, the 2019 team was terrible, but still underperformed... Drury was suppose to be a .300 opb guy not .250... Vlad was suppose to hit right away... Teoscar was lost at times. Not sure the manager can do anything about that. I think it's an interesting debate. At the time I was really frustrated with Montoya because I thought that the manager sets the tone and is the boss of the hitting instructor, and should expect professional at bats and each hitter to do the best with their abilities. Of course there is randomness, unknowns, inexplicable slumps and others argued the manager and hitting coach can't change things much.. however to me that's the one reason to fire the manager (and the staff)... team wide underperformance compared to expectations/past performance.

I think the Kirk and Bo slumps and mediocre offense, combined with deadball which it makes it look even worse is just playing with people's minds. Kind of.. What if these guys aren't as good as we thought? Yeah, come back at end of May and worry if the trends are longer.

Kind of... but that is a really concerning stats line. Bo's K/bb was like 2-1 throughout the minors. Maybe Orelvis's approach is too aggressive. I assume Vlad and Bo could have hit more homers in the minors if they just went all out, swung as hard as they could at everything. In 630 or so PAs Orelvis has 41 homers In 1200 ish PAs Vlad had 44 homers In 1400 ish PAs Bo had 39 homers Every guy is different, but I assume all three have elite exit V. So question is 1. What would Orelvis's numbers look like if he held back a bit, was more patient and made more contact? 2. What would Bo/Vlad's numbers in the minors look like if they swung as hard as they could at everything? So question is, at some point does Orelvis have to realize that he may have to dial it back a bit? Especially with the new ball. That being said, Orelvis's k/bb was OK I guess until Vancouver... maybe he is being rushed.

This is the dumbest thread ever. Firing Charlie will do nothing to help the problem, the terrible hitting. Who cares that Charlie didn't manage a perfect game last night. The problem was far more the terrible, terrible hitting. So figure out why the Jays suck at hitting and fix that. If Firing Charlie will fix that fire him. Otherwise don't. It will hopefully turn around just with the passing of time, but if not where in for a long season of frustration and under-performance. Watching the Yankees win 110 legendary games, watching the Mariners squeak into the playoffs while the Jays win 83. Charlie has nothing to do with it. Hitting does.

The defensive plays and Romano and the great pitching all factor in, however over 162 games all that would just keep the Jays at .500 with normal luck. Yesterday... Springers catch was big. However 3 runs on 3 hits, 2 of them on a 345 foot homerun was luck. Jays aren't going to win 100 with an even run differential even if the great plays continue. However the hitting will probably improve and they will continue to have a great record (because run differential will improve).

Going forward what will not be repeatable 1. Bo hitting deadballs 344 feet down the right field line at the key moment. Going forward what will improve 1. Bo hitting balls 400 feet with good exit-v more regularly and having better overall numbers.

That's not really how it works. Luck has been the difference this year. I think they'll play better going forward but despite the fact Gaussman and Manoah have been awesome, the 15-8 is mostly just luck. Got lucky that they scored runs at the right time on Opening night. Got lucky That Springer and Bo hit homeruns at just the right time. Unless you think Bo is good at hitting the deadball 350 feet down the right field line at just the right time, with just enough exit v and launch angle to get the dead ball just over the right field wall.

Yeah, but his career k/bb is like 2.5 and right now it's 1... all he has to do is get his k/bb to career levels

What is amazing is the offense has actually been in the top half, pitching in the bottom half. Jays are just above average in runs scored, just below in runs against. League batting average is .229 with power down.

It's funny how the narrative is that the hitting is horrible and the pitching is awesome. Before today the hitting was like 5th, pitching 9th. That will change a bit after another pitcher's duel. However just crazy when is happening to offense. Last I checked the AL was hitting .229 .300 .365 or so ... insane.

I am sure now that they discovered they can make Guerrero a little less effective by throwing pitches off the plate, they will throw it down the middle and make him better when Teo comes back. It's not helping that Guerrero is perhaps having calls go against him, but they are pitching him tough and just off the plate outside. I am sure they will continue the exact same strategy when Teo comes back, and it will be up to Guerrero to be a bit more patient if he's not getting anything to hit (and again Umps haven't helped).

Bo - hitting .220 .240 .300 ore so with a top 5 hitter behind him. Are they pitching to him because they are afraid of Vlad? No. they throw whatever crap up there that he'll swing at, get bo and 2 and then get out on. Same with Vlad. If it turns out he is hitting worse than usual without Teo, they will keep the same pattern when Teo comes back to keep him hitting worse than usual.

The only exception to this is guys like Barry Bonds, or Soto who have the ability or willingness to take 150 walks. So in that case there might be a pattern that makes them like, .300 .480 .500 hitters, instead of .300 .400 .600 hitters and if there is a good hitter behind them, they will change the pattern to reduce on base percentage. However no one on the Jays, including Vladdy is that prototype. Maybe Vladdy will be someday. However right now they'll just use the pattern that gets him out the most, based on their scouting.

This is so stupid. Why would Vladdy care? Sure Vladdy is struggling a bit in the last week. So you think he's not getting pitches to hit? And that makes him a weaker version of Vladdy maybe .280 .340 .450 instead of the monster .300 .400 .600 Vladdy? Let's say that is true Pitching pattern 1 (Teo is there) - they "pitch" to Vladdy - Vladdy hits .300 .400 .600 Pitching pattern 2 (no Teo) - they "don't pitch" to Vladdy - Vladdy hits .280 .340 .450 Teo comes back. YAAAY! They'll pitch to Vladdy again. Or will they? Why would they ever pitch to Vladdy if 'not pitching' to him makes him worse? This hole idea of protection is the stupidest thing in baseball. They use the pattern that gets the guy out the most. Doesn't matter who is behind or in front of you.

Their starters since last Tuesday have gone, Evaldi, Pivetta, Houck, Wacha, Whitlock, Hill, Evaldi, Pivetta, Whacha (tonight), Whitlock (tomorrow). Whitlock already started a game, and did long relief in another. Seems he's been pitching every 4 days. I'm not sure the issue with Houck really changed things. Whitlock pitched 4 innings Saturday so would not have pitched until Wednesday. They seem to want to transition Whitlock to a longer role every few days.

I always bring it back to John Olerud, so will again. Martin is similar to Olerud. Both 55ish WAR players with disjointed careers, and lots of seemingly unimpressive 17 homers 60 rbish seasons, sprinkled in with great ones. Both went through a phase where they were insanely under-appreciated in their 20s, and didn't have great traditional stats, but were still hitting good for their respective positions. Both retired at 36 so didn't tack on counting stats at the end, and were part time players at the end. Gives a disjointed feel to their careers as compared to guys that string together their good seasons.

Long Covid, from what I hear is pretty serious (this is baseball related as long Covid can effect attention span and reflexes, and I think could cause performance issues for a baseball player). Interestingly, in some posts I expressed disagreement with the Canadian border rules, some took this to mean I did not think the vax works, or I'm one these Covid deniers. Not the case at all. I simply think the risk of an unvaccinated but tested daily, and isolated (other than games) individual is actually smaller than the risk of a vaccinated but untested and un-isolated visitor. Just to say that the border restriction could have been done another way, that would be just as safe.

lol. Vlad was f***ing above them all except for the fatness and ground balls. I mean, I'm not even joking here in terms of hard contact he was elite even when bad. I saw him 2019 in an August Yankees series. He was by far hitting the ball harder than anyone on either team and was not over-matched at all. Of course that amounted to a 120 mph single off the wall, a ground ball triple, and a ground ball double play off Chapman after 18 pitches or something. The fear for Vlad was that he would have the best hard contact numbers is the league and it would amount to .275 with 19 homers and 40 gidp... looks like he has overcome the launch angle thing happily.

The 1994-1997 story of the Blue Jays is as criminal as 83-93 was good. Hard to believe that WAMCO became C by 97. No WAM. No O. Just C.

Well he already hit 30 the one year he got 600 plate appearances. He would be probably hit 30 homers with a .285 on base anywhere if he got 600+ plate appearances. He might hit 40 in Colorado. Well not really. If Colorado increases homeruns by 20% that only gives him 3 more at home, if assuming a 30 homer pace. Maybe if he gets lucky and has a real good year by his own standards he can hit 40 in Colorado then Reddit and Twitter will proclaim it the worst trade ever. He was drafted ahead of Mike Trout you know.

Biggio has 4 ish WAR in 240 games, Tapia like 0 in 400, Collins is like some guy who you don't expect to help (not my words). So what I am saying is Biggio was good for 160 straight and injured last year. Not yet time to replace him with horrible players. Algorithm should be Biggio gets at bats in April see if he rebounds then give the horrible players extra playing time if Biggio looks horrible after 100 at bats. Even 100 at bats isn't enough, but if he looks horrible, and statscast is horrible, then I guess you give Keith the win. However 100 at bats first.

Harsh. Biggio should have more at bats than Tapia, at least through April. We'll see what happens. Will suck if Biggio ends up somewhere else and horrible players get 500 plate appearances here. That is where the manager (or lineup director upstairs) is worth a couple WAR or more. It's not just Biggio vs Espinal, but Biggio vs crap behind Biggio.