Olerud363

This team is on pace to score 200 runs less than the 2016 Blue Jays. 2016 Blue Jays were first in walks. Had really good seasons from Edwin and Donaldson. Were 5th in runs. There were moments of frustration, but if this team could score at 2016 Blue Jays levels they'd win 100 games. This is something completely different. Total collapse by every single player (well compared to expectations). I guess the good news is the 'problem' of signing Teoscar, Bo, Vlad long term is no longer a problem... I mean none of those guys look to be irreplaceable any more. Not saying they are going to be this bad forever, but problably have established them selves as Vernon Wells, Adam Lind, Aaron Hill types, rather then perennial super stars.

There is now 2 stadiums in the AL East where 'pull dat ball' for right handed hitters isn't the best idea, With 18 games in Camden and Yankee Stadium teams that hit to all fields have an advantage in the AL East.

Hit by pitch. Not sure if that was why he was taken out. Hopefully not, but probably is. Doubt they are pinchrunning for prospects in minor league games.

His slugging is lower than 2020. His OPS+ is only OK (but dropping fast) because of the lower offense level. His numbers, including ground ball rate, are the same as 2019 and 2020.

Red Sox are back in it. Only 4 games out of the playoffs with seriously great stuff going on with Martinez, Bogaerts, Devers and now Story.

Bo won 2 games with opposite field homeruns though... like half his homeruns are opposite field. He led the league in opposite field hits last year, and I believe is among the leaders this year. His opposite field outcomes are good, I think. I bet the same is true of Vlad and Springer, and Kirk. Perhaps problem is pull outcomes, not pull percentages. It's not that their hitting oppo too much, it's that when they pull the ball they are not having great outcomes. Also... they do not want to be pulling fly balls when they get to Camden yards. That place is rigged against Jays/Sox/Yanks. Meant to destroy Vlad, Judge, Stanton, Bo, Springer, Martinez, Bogaertz and make Orioles win 2-1 Hasn't been working because Judged popped some to center and right. They also pulled some 400 singles. Vlad will get some long singles at the Camden probably.

Who knows. Teoscar was 22 his first year at aa and hit .220. Long way to go for Orelvis and anything could happen. He could be hitting .300 in 4 weeks.

I'd rather have the latter. The first one is kind of a freakshow and the other one an MVP. It's kind of like would you rather have Buster Posey 2012? Or Salvadore Perez 2021? Of course the former, even though the latter set a homerun record for his position. Orelvis. Such a unique guy. Like he just tied Bo Bichette's age 20 New hampshire home run total of 11... took Bo 131 games, but Orelvis only 29. And Bo swings hard and wild with good exit-V sometimes.. what the hell will Orelvis be like when he gets here?

Not saying at all he should change, can't wait to see the 60 homerun approach... just saying if by some chance it doesn't quite work there is room to trade off a bit of power for contact.

Feels like there is lots of room for adjustment here... if his 60 homerun a year approach doesn't work because he would strike out 250 times against good pitching he might be able to tone it down a bit and be a successful 30 homerun a year guy.

lol. Springer was all like that after hitting a bloop single in the third.

From a stats-scouting perspective it isn't really a match. Franco didn't have strike-out issues but outside of his age 20 season didn't have great minor league stats either. Franco was a .277 .327 .450 minor league hitter and a .247 .299 .420 MLB hitter, those two lines match up pretty well. Would be interesting to compare him to similar minor league power hitters. Hard to find them though... not a lot of guys have had this kind of homerun rate age 18-20. Even Guerrero had like only half of Martinez's homerun rate.

I have stuff to do now and then so have never watched every single game. However this is the first year in a while, when I didn't watch a game when I had a free night. Have actually gone back to Hockey after decades instead of watching this team. Started watching in 88, got some lessons right away in disappointment. I mean I watched the 85 and 87 collapses but wasn't attached, then Spring of 88 just decided I was going to follow the team religously. Not sure why. They told me George Bell was going to hit 60 homeruns. Barfiled, Moseby and Bell were together the best outfield ever... Fernandez would win a batting title. It didn't exactly happen that way but after reconfiguration there was a pay off in 92/93. Then in 97 they told me they'd be back in the playoffs let by Sprague Carter, Santiago and Orlando Merced and Young Green and Delgado... I was smart enough to know Merced, Sprague and Carter weren't all that, but they'd all be OK, and with the pitching and Delgado would score enough... boy did I underestimate the ability of baseball players to collapse to nothing. 2013.. same thing. Big expectations. Hitters collapsed (well some pitchers too) Old man ranting... I know. But this has a 88/97/2013 vibe to it.

Assuming the Umpire is mostly responsible for putting balls in play could a savvy team still get dead balls in play at key times? Say Tampa has a collection of dead balls. Vlad, Teo and Bo coming up. Could they switch some dead balls in, warming up, and at least until a batter fouls one out of play, use the dead ball?

Yeah. That would be a fiasco. My understanding is that the home team controls how the balls are stored including whether stored in a humidor, then hands them off to the umpires at game time, and the umpires put them in play. So hometeam should not be able to control which balls are used half inning to half inning. If I'm wrong on that, then there is an obvious route for Tom Brady style cheating here.... I am thinking what a team like Tampa may do, is fiddle with how the balls are stored, game to game and which balls are used. Could do this game to game, week to week, depending who they were playing and what kind of team they have. Could even use the advantage of what balls were being used for game strategy. For example could have some balls stored in the humidor at some high setting, let their team know those balls are being used that day, and have them switch strategies. Hit to the opposite field, or maybe configure their lineup different. Maybe use different balls when a power hitting team comes to town. Tin foil hat land? Maybe. Who knows.

We are actually completely average in terms of American League hitting. Mid pack in everything. Scores were a tad higher one day. Overall AL average hitter is .230 .300 .368 or so... overall NL hitter is .237 .313 .383, which is a little better.

Things are so weird. Is it possible the ball is not only dead but wildly inconsistent? Vlad hit 3 line drives yesterday, all with EVs of around 95. On TV all looked squared up. Maybe he's just missing them and it's hard to tell on TV? Manoah said something about balls being inconsistent and some feeling squishy. Or maybe in some stadiums balls are humidored too much? Like maybe the Rays are doing this on purpose and they know it. An exit velocity approach is a fools errand against highly humidor treated balls. lol. Not that I know much about this. What happens if you put a ball in a humidor and crank up the settings? Could a clever team use this to their advantage? Let the other team hit drives that will go no where, while they know it's a fools errand so just try to slap singles the other way?

That's maybe unfair considering some of the alternative moves, Semien, Baez, Story and even Correa and Kris Bryant (a little underperforance + injury) would all have been the just as bad. Ramirez would have been better obviously, but there is just some weirdness going on with the dead ball, pitch-com, changes in how the ball is moving maybe. Some guys are collapsing into shadows of their former selves, and not just on the Jays.

This is the second time this week he's made a critical error against a division rival that arguably led to a loss. Against the Yankees he made an error before Stanton's home run.

It sucked because it was at a critical time but it wasn't a horrible throw but was to Espinal's bare hand, not his glove side. It was close enough that Espinal probably could have bare handed if he wanted to take that risk... though maybe it was too hard and there wasn't time to react.

Zulueta is a 24 year old from Cuba. He was pitching in Cuba for many years, presumably, and may actually have more experience than the others. It's not like he's Tiedemann a 19 year old with a lot of potential development who you don't want to rush. I mean, if you put Zulueta in the high minors for 3 weeks he will have as much experience as Manaoh when he was called up successfully. And he will be older too.

Aaron Sanchez, Osuna and Castro was also viewed as top starters but Jays called them up as relievers anyway in 2015. Mixed results. Osuna stayed a reliever because he was good at it right away. Sanchez was a good reliever for a playoff team, then won an ERA title for a playoff team, then his career fell apart. Would their outcomes have been better if they stayed as starters? Would the franchise have been better off if they had stayed in the minors as starters? Not sure about the first, but convinced the franchise was better off having them contribute to 2 playoff runs. Kind of feel the same way this year. If some guy can help as a reliever, he should be doing it this year, especially if 23 or older. They can be a bit creative, multi inning outings and stuff, to continue development as a starter.

Isn't he a 24 year old cuban, and shouldn't he be in the Jays bullpen like in 2 weeks? I'd put him in aa and if he does good put him in Jays bullpen. People forget this was the formula that worked to solve 2015 bullpen issues. Osuna and Castro were called up with about the same amount of experience as Zulueata has now, but were only 20. Aaron Sanchez had more experience but was younger at 22. 24 year old Cuban seems like a guy who should be up as soon as he has 2 weeks of success at double a, which was also the formula they used for Gurriel.

87 to 88 was a huge change. Similar to this with guys collapsing out of no where. Bell, Moseby and Barfield showed up at 28 years old and weren't the same guys any more. Bell was top 5 in MVP in 89, but with an crafty 18 homer 'clutch' hitting season... that's a lot of different than the 47 homer monster who won an RBI Juan Gonzales type MVP in 1987. Then 93 to 94 was a huge change the other way, but maybe that was gradual from 92-94 with steroids becoming popular. Though 94 was weird with several guys becoming Babe Ruth/Ted Williams when no one had every seen that in 50 years.

Yeah.. so context for people who weren't following the changes with the baseball... they claimed they were doing it for 2021, but offense didn't totally collapse until 2022. Could be they still used old balls for 2021... could be short spring training. Could be pitchers were lost a bit without sticky stuff but have adjusted, could be short spring training, could be humidor, could be Camden Yards is now a homerun wasteland to left, could be all of it. (obviously a change in one ball park isn't going to change much overall, but Camden and maybe the new Arlington park may both be pitchers parks now, and changed the math a bit, will be fun to watch Vlad hit a 118 mph 400 foot single in the new Camden.... or Chapman have the one ball he gets a hold of a week be a fly out.)