Olerud363

I think that point is valid pre-draft, if there are hundred of 5'11 pitchers and hundreds of 6'4 pitchers, with the same high school or college stats and pitch metrics, and you can show that the tall group always makes it further. Or alternative maybe there are 200 good pitchers in the tall group, and only 50 in the short group, and of course more tall ones make it because there was more to start with. It breaks down for Stroman or Kirk, when they make the majors against the odds and there isn't a lot of data on what comes next. Like who is Kirk's comparison group? Guys who are almost like Joe Mauer statistically except fat short Mexicans physically? Did Stroman in the end under-perform because he was short? Like if you only knew his stats, velocity, and spin rates in 2014 would you have predicted a better or worse career?

You are completely missing the point. 80 speed would give him more value on the basepaths. So if he had 80 speed he'd be more valuable. Height gives him no more value. However height may be a predictor of future performance, it may be a source of prejudice, it may be both. So asking the question 'what would his value be if he was tall' is useful as to trade negotiations. If his trade "value" would be higher if he was tall, but his real value isn't, it may not be a good idea to trade him as he is under-valued.

So what's your point? The equivalent question in that case would be, say your Aunt was getting paid 85k a year, and she was wondering if she was under-paid. What would she get paid if she had balls? If the answer is 125,000 then maybe she is underpaid. If Kirk's trade value would be higher if he was tall and had a complete 2020 season in the high minors and got high up on the lists... then he's under-rated. That's all.

His minor league stats were great, his contact rate is great. He is a lifetime .287 .365 .465 hitter. He's under-valued because he is 5'2" 300 pounds and because of the missing 2020. His max exit velocity/distance seems to be around 110 mph, 420 so he has power. His fangraphs batted ball data is similar to Michael Brantley's. What if he had the same rate stats but was 6'3" 215 and there was no pandemic so he had a chance to put up good numbers in the high minors and get on the prospect lists? What would his value be then?

He got a bad call, but also swung at a couple of bad pitches. Didn't get a pitch in the strike zone that at bat.

I definitely disagreed that they needed to pull dat ball more, though I think Carlos wanted them to pull dat ball less. I thought they didn't need to pull it more or less, just maybe be more patient and wait for their pitch and hit it harder. Never really was impressed with the 'pull dat ball' teams of 96, 97, 09, and 10. Seemed like a good way to score 720 runs off of 250 homers, while the Yankess and Red Sox scored 870 runs off of 230 homers.

Unless you are referring to an influx of new posters, who have no education it is literally impossible for the education level of the board to drop. People can get more education but not less. What could be happening is perhaps Covid or the vaccine, or monkey pox or just age is causing cognitive decline in the board members. Though I doubt that, but if the board is indeed getting stupider, it is either new members lowering the average intelligence, or cognitive decline. Education can't drop. Like if you made to grade 11, you will always have made to grade 11.

Didn't see much of the game. Heard a bit of the post game and scanned some of the comments on this board and yes it may be time to fire Chuckles 2 dropped pop-ups because Vlad and Teo were not wearing sun glasses? Gaussman tipping pitches? Seems like things are getting out of control.

Alvarez is way better than Hernandez he's been better than Vlad per game as a hitter, both on average and peak (his 2019 was better than Vlad's 2022 per rate stats, only played 85 games though). 1. Just because Alvarez has been better than Vlad doesn't mean he will be going ahead 2. Alvarez has bad knees and hasn't played as many games as Vlad which makes him less valuable overall But Alvarez has been a better hitter than Vlad so far... the guy is good.

Hitting seems to be coming around. Job of the manager is to hire the right hitting and pitching coach and make sure the players listen to them. Also don't give terrible players 700 plate appearances. Tapia - probably won't get 700 PAs. Hitting - close to top 5 except for the runners in scoring position thing. Tapia - maybe he deserves 700 at bats? He's like a 110 EV guy, started to get some launch. Some of those doubles might end up in the seats soon and needs the opportunity to work this all out and deliver on his 110 mph EV. So probably Tapia doesn't yet deserve 700 PAs but also should get some to try and learn to launch at 25 degrees and 110 mph... he's close. Kirk? He's the next Edgar Martinez hitting wise and the next Russel Martin on defense... over 150 games he's 11 WAR for sure... so why only on pace for 120 games and 450 PAs?? As Terminator mentioned he's 5'4" 300 pounds... needs a break now in then. Don't you read the threads? Charlie is doing a great job when all the different complicated factors are considered.

Stripling was on 2 days rest and Phelps is about as good a reliever... no one would or should pitch Stripling much farther in that situation. The other game he put Borucki in in the 3rd inning... he had 6 innings to cover and had to do it somehow, Stripling pitched the night before (albeit only 3 pitches) and probably still wasn't going to go much more than 2 innings.

Agreed when you are scouting high schoolers and stuff. However the context of Vlad getting an 80 hit tool was after his age 18 season when he hit .320 between two levels of a ball with line drive power. Then he hit .400 for a couple of months in aa which ramped up expectations even more. I didn't hear about him having an '80 hit tool' when he was signed... it came about as a combination of scouting and performance. I'm not a scout. Just an avid fan who watches a lot of games and checks the box scores (well these days the fangraphs pages). So when I heard 80 hit tool it put some expectations in my head, which were perhaps unfair. Frank Thomas 90s. Edgar Martinez 90s. Manny Ramirez. Pujols. Delgado 2000/2003 but every year... He may be another Delgado, a level down from the guys who can do it every year.

If hit tool doesn't include ground ball rate and plate discipline why doesn't Tapia have a great hit tool? All that's preventing him from being a great hitter is the 55% lifetime ground ball rate and 40% O-swing rate. 80 hitter (ie Albert Pujols 2001-2011) = 20% line drive rate, 40% ground ball rate, 40% fly ball rate, 20% out-of-zone swing rate. Who is an 80 hitter without that profile? Interestingly the one thing that decayed in Pujols profile as he decayed was out-of-zone swing rate... went from under 20 to 35.

Lineup (not real just my prediction) Bench Kirk (needs rest to prepare for catching tomorrow). 6th hitter Tapia defensive outfield specialist hitting 9th - Zimmer Utility hitting 8th - Biggio Rest day - Vlad

So you can have a 60% ground ball rate, and horrible plate discipline but still have a great hit tool? Hit tool has to be related to line drive rate and barrel rate which is related to ground ball rate... When they said Vlad had an 80 hit tool I pictured a guy hitting line drives and taking close pitches.

If you look at the at bats in question and consider all the border line pitches strikes, Vlad still swung at 40% of the balls, and 100% of the strikes. There were 9 pitches and he swung 6 times, for a swing rate of 66.7%. In the long term that kind of swing rate would be disastrous.

A bit of semantics but is plate discipline included in 'hit tool'? Is ground ball rate? To me those are the two reasons I am not as impressed with his 'hit tool'. Strike-outs have never been a problem. It's not like he's striking out 200 times like some of the other power hitters, Stanton/Judge do. So is this decision to have more game power resulting in more ground balls and swinging at more bad pitches? It could be. Maybe he swings harder, starts his swing earlier so this results in more out of zone swings and he 'just misses' more pitches, but for him a 'just miss' is a ground ball, instead of swing and miss.

What strike did I call a ball - Swing 1 - not a strike Swing 2 - borderline - plenty of times this pitch is called a ball, plenty of times a strike Swing 3 - Pitch was a strike but low (I meant it was low in the strike zone) Swing 4 - This was a strike, never said it wasn't Swing 5 - 4 inches outside Swing 6 - again borderline - sometimes called a strike sometimes not. Also if he doesn't swing at the ball 4 inches inside or outside, then he doesn't have to swing at the border line pitches. Laika mentioned a while ago that he thought Pillar could be really good if he made the same swing decisions as Alex Bregman. How good would Vlad be if he made the same swing decisions as Juan Soto? Better than Soto for sure as he more raw power.

WAR combines all the other numbers... In what way is Vlad better? 2019 - Vlad was worse using every conventional number 2020 - Vlad was way worse than Soto using every conventional number 2021 - Vlad was better in power, Soto better in patience, they were equivalent 2022 - They are both bad (with respect to expectations) but Soto's elite discipline makes him better overall.

Cherry picking one inside pitch, that was OK to swing at, out of several bad swing decisions is what is lazy. You my friend are the troll. In those 3 at bats. Swing 1 2-0 count - Pitch was a few inches inside Swing 2 2-1 count - Pitch was right on the upper inside corner, probably a ball Swing 3 2-2 count - Pitch was a strike but low, had to swing but could of taken it if he hadn't swung at the first 2 Swing 4 1-0 count - This was the one 'good' pitch, inner part of the plate Swing 5 0-0 count - 4 inches outside Swing 6 0-1 count - borderline inside edge So of the six swing decisions, maybe 1 was good, 2 were terrible, and 3 were borderline. No one is going to make perfect swing decisions, but Vlad's could have been a lot better in those 3 at bats.

I already mentioned that a few posts ago. Yes I know that Soto is hitting .230. Soto is also on Track for 4 WAR hitting .230 while Vlad only 2 WAR. If both hit .240ish, Soto will have twice as much WAR because of his elite patience. If like last year, Vlad hits 20 more homers, Soto will still be about as good because of his elite patience. Vlad is not equivalent to Soto.

Not saying it is, just replying to the guy who says they are equivalent.

I was replying to LetTheBallFly who said they were equivalent. One thing about Vlad is that he was the only guy ever to get an 80 hit tool from Baseball America... however there is no way he has an 80 hit tool... or if he does he needs some serious mental adjustments to get back to that level. Looking at his stats cast page he is like 99th percentile in all the raw power things like max exit velocity, but like 70th in 'hit tool' things (like barrel rate, expected batting average).

I am aware that Soto is struggling this year too... but let's say hypothetically Vlad and Soto continue at their current paces. Does that make them equivalent? No. Soto's mediocre year will feature 120 walks and a .380 on base so he'll be a couple WAR ahead of Vlad at their current paces. That's why Soto is better.

Literally one pitch was middle in in those last three at bats. Everything else was either a ball or borderline. Soto and Vlad are the same age. Soto has 19.9 career WAR, Vlad 6.8. Literally Soto has three times as much career WAR they aren't equivalent. Just because Vlad had almost the same WAR in 2021 (Soto still had more fWAR) doesn't make them the same. Soto is better because a) he doesn't swing at the balls and borderline pitches that Vlad does he's good every year, not just 1 year.