Olerud363

Biggio is a victim of the times. Would have been better off playing for the 1999 As, or 2003 Red Sox, before they had fancy hard hit rates, and guys like Keith Law on social media and they just looked at on base percentage. Actually between 98 and 2015 or so no team would have ever played Tapia over Biggio with the exception of the 2009ish Blue Jays.

Red Sox are way ahead in ERA, which is interesting as they are much closer in fWAR. Sox ERA is 3.54, Jays 4.14 but the xfip is about the same. Perhaps Jays are unlucky, Red Sox lucky and Jays will be better in the second half, or Sox are doing something repeatable and beating xfip.

You need help. Sox are 3rd in ERA this year, Jays 13th this year. Sox are a better pitching team then Jays... if you just mean yesterday, well... 1. Sox minor league starting depth seems better then Jays. Crawford seems OK as a 7th starter or whatever, great k/bb last year in the minors. 2. Sox were clever enough to use an opener in front of their aaa pitcher Seems like Sox executed well. It's not just luck, they won yesterday because of better depth and better execution. They are a better organization than the Jays.

You can do it too on Berrios/Kikuchi/Stripling or Ryu replacement starting pitching implosions. If it's 6-1 in the 3rd because of a poor outing by our 70 million dollar rotation please rant.

It's been awful because it's just the same story since 1993. Many generations of teams that I thought should be best in division for a year or two just disappeared into nothing while Yankees and Red Sox brought Joy to their fan bases. 98, 2003, 2006, 2013, generation of teams all were promising in different ways but never able to compete at the top level. There's really been 2 awesome months in the last 30 years (August/September 2015). While the Yankees and Red Sox have supplied their fans 100 or so awesome months. 2016 wasn't awesome, until first week of October it was as annoying as this season and Jays were out of playoff second last day of season, but pulled off a pretty incredible 6 game win streak (last 2 games in Fenway, Wild-card, ALDS) to make that season seem fun, but in-season it was just like this most of the way.

They were playing better especially near the end of the season but I think the projected wins would be about the same. One big difference is Ryu is gone. So no SP depth. If everybody plays at their career norms things will be fine. Like if you tell me Berrios and Richards will be at career norms, Garcia and the Rotation will be healthy and the position players will be relatively healthy and play at career norms then second half will be fine, they will likely end up at same wins as last year, but playoffs because of the extra spot. The worrisome things for me are a) something is wrong with Berrios and he won't perform at career norms Could have another starting pitcher go down, and the depth is garbage. c) Bullpen arms like Richards and Garcia will be injured and/or implode and no depth there. So there is a disaster scenario where 6.00 ERA starters and relievers tank the season and the position players aren't good enough to score enough runs to consistently win 9-5 games on the nights (like last) where pitching is bad but not a complete implosion.

Just to clarify Seabold is the Red Sox 14th best prospect not 14th overall in MLB or anything. Doesn't really change tonights game, in fact probably makes it a bit worse. Jays would lose7-2 if it was a top 14 22 year old fire baller debuting... Will lose 7-1 with this crafty 26 year old debuting. Only good news is Seabold may get rocked next start and probably isn't a super star... though you never know.

lol. Just today Wilner told everyone he'd block them if they called Berrios (or any other human being) garbage. I actually have no problem with the Guardians thing, especially after hearing long time broadcaster Jerry Howarth's passionate views on the subject. I find Wilner's interactions with fans pretty humorous to be honest. The relentless smug lecturing of the negative fans and left wing politics is a fun combination. Negative Fan: No chance at a playoff spot with this garbage rotation. Wilner: When Alex Manoah makes the all-star team in a month this rotation will have 5 all stars. Which is actually technically true with the cavaet that one is TJ'd and the other two have imploded, but if Manoah makes it the 5 man rotation will each have made the all star game.

July 2nd Mike Wilner Tweet 'I see a lot of people claiming the Guardians have a playoff spot locked up. They don't. They are only 3 games ahead of a better Jays team. And if anyone calls them by their former name that's an auto-block"

The good news is Mike Wilner will be extremely positive until they are 7 or 8 games behind a playoff spot. After losing 14-4 on Canada Day with another Berrios disaster, to fall 8 back of the Red Sox and 6 back of the Rays, Wilner will tweet 'still only 2 games back of the Playoffs, and the Jays are a better team then the Indians.".

They don't have the pitching to do anything this year, and it was obvious they'd collapse during this tough stretch. They have 3 great organizations in their divisions that will take 3 playoff spots, and it's unlikely they can beat out a central team as the central teams don't play the east and are probably better anyway. Really just making fun of Wilner's positivity. Wilner kept going on with the '3rd in the AL' positive point for a while... now that's gone (congrats Boston) he'll be 'still in a playoff spot' as they get clobbered by Boston and Tampa next week. Wilner will be 'still in a playoff spot' until that's gone later this week.

Or maybe he'd throw at 75% all day and never need Tommy John.

Bogaerts had a 5.9 in 2019. Actually had a almost identical season to Devers that year. Bogaerts is kind of Derek Jeterish, I think he's 3 to 5 WAR behind Jeter through age 29 with 90 games to go this year, and 100 games missing in 2020. Bogaerts has 2 rings. Though one of them you almost forget since he was a late season add-in in 2013... though seems he played a lot in the post-season.

Rockies do a horrible job in other aspects and have many losing seasons. And the 'develop stars (borderline hall of famers) was only 1 of 4 points 1. Develop stars. 50 WAR players who could get into the hall of fame if they have a strong 30s 2. Consistent record of success. Never more than 2 years without contending. Obviously they are doing a good job in other aspects of team building (which the Rockies are not). 3. Always on top of the latest analytics. They were the first big-market team to copy Oakland with some improvements when the on base beer leaguers didn't quite make the world series, like improving the defense in 2004. Whether they were 'cheating' or not, in 2018 they were seemingly right with Houston in terms of hitting and pitching 'game-plan' analytics. 4. Great job renovating an old ball park and keeping revenue high.

They consistently develop hall of fame caliber players. Devers, Bogaerts, Betts, in the last decade. Not sure those guys will be hall of famers, but hall of fame caliber meaning they are on track for 50+ WAR and could do it with a strong mid to late 30s. Boston isn't a crazy-huge market. In fact I think it is just a bit bigger than Tampa. However they have a large payroll because of a 35 year run of interesting teams, and no sustained stretches of losing. Done a good job modernizing the ball park. Good job generating revenue. Good job with analytics and signing the right free agents.

Well the cheating thing, and the fact that 6 consecutive losing season, between 2009 and 2014 set up this run, including 3 - 50 something win seasons. Though they do seem to be sustaining it now without a down-cycle. Red Sox have had repeated winning cycles without much losing. Yankees and Dodgers have done it with no losing... but Red Sox don't have quite the resources of the other two.

Wilner (up to about 5:00 pm today) - Jays are still third in AL WIlner (up to about 5:00 pm tomorrow) - Jays are still in a playoff spot Wilner (up to about Sunday) - Jays only 2 games back of playoffs 85 games to go. Wilner (up through next Wednesday night) - Jays only 4 games back of playoffs at half way point. Wilner (Canada Day) - Wasn't the Canada we hoped for but all teams go through this. Wilner (after Rays double header sweep) - still only 7 games back with half a season to go.

Aren't Gurriel and Hernandez free agents after 2023? So they aren't part of 24/25 anyway. I think Tampa Bay and Boston are still ahead for this year. Need to retool a bit for the next 3 years. More lefty bats, better relievers. I would retool if they are 4 games back. That puts them basically needing another 2015 to 2021 run over the last 2 months... and despite a great run 2021 didn't work. I think a bad showing over the Canada Day weekend and fans will be screaming for a re-tool anyway. Gurriel/Hernandez/Stripling/Jansen and maybe some prospects for relievers and lefty bats that can help for 2023-25.

What is the chance of getting the bunt down? That needs to be factored in too. So it's even a bit more favorable to not bunting. Still not a franchise altering move. I think as Dagagad has pointed all these little moves are inconsequential compared to pitching and player development.

How long do you think the Window should be? Seems like if they are going to go to the end with Bo and Guerrero it's 3 more years after this one. Is it worth it to make short term trades at this point? Or do you make trades that benefit for 3 years? What if you could trade Stripling, Hernandez, Gurriel, Jansen to contenders for an assortment of players with more control, or prospects in the high minors that could help for 3 years. Is there a scenario you do that? What if on July 3, they are 4 games back of the playoff spot. Do you try to make the team stronger for the next 3 runs?

Well what do they do about it? Short term and long term? The next 10 days might be the most important of the season. You mentioned that they don't need to do much at the deadline if a playoff spot was secure. However you also mentioned they were a rough 10 days from being in a dog fight. They are now in that dog fight and a rough 10 days from being 5 games back of a playoff spot. Where will they be in 10 days? In a month? What do they do at the deadline? How do they get guys who can help now? How do they develop guys who can help long term.

His Velocity was fine Sunday. Seems like he needed more than 1 day of rest to recover from that stressful outing.

Wilner literally tweeted 'Jays Still in 3rd in AL'. Likely last night for that. Not trying to troll. Just social commentary on Wilner's insane annoying positivity through any collapse. I hope the collapse is stopped somehow but if it continues on the current pace those on Twitter will have to follow Wilner saying 'this is fine, everything is OK', the entire time. 1,2 Gone 3. Today may be the last day Wilner can claim Jays still in third. He will move to 'Jays still in playoff spot' after today. Hilariously that can go real quick. Like by tomorrow theoretically. So he may only have a day or 2 to use that.

I guess it depends on your time frame. My time frame is pretty long, basically since 1988 - They won the first pennant race I followed (88), beat out a very good Jays team in 1990. Beat out an exciting young Jays team for the wild card in 1998. 2013 was suppose to be the Jays year, but it was the sox year. Beat out the Jays for division in 2016 and wild card in 2021. 4 world series since 2004. Top three are Dodgers, Yankees, and Red Sox. I guess a big part of that is the market for Dodgers and Yankees, but Red Sox don't have a insanely huge market. Some of it is semantics, for example I don't consider Tampa Bay or Oakland great organizations because they are unable to get a stadium built and get fans to the ballpark consistently... may not be totally their fault, and they are great at team building and player development, but to me a 'great' organization also build revenue.

This time next week they could be finishing a 3 game sweep of the Jays and could be 4 games ahead of them. Red Sox are a top-3 organization in baseball and your disrespect for them is crazy. I do not like them, but I respect them, and have a feeling they will be making Toronto fans sad next week. I certainly hope if the Sox do move ahead of the Jays with a sweep next week you apologize to the board, the Red Sox organization and major league baseball for your lack of respect to a great organization.