Olerud363

Is the world prejudiced against on base guys? Was Cito's hate of Johny O not personal but symptomatic of a repressive system that is rigged against the .280 .380 .400 hitter? Sure if you win a batting title or your name if Frank Thomas or Juan Soto they'll take the 130 walks... but if you are just a regular joe on base guy do you face obstacles that a Joe Carter type doesn't? Is the system rigged such that poor Spencer Horwitz will never be given a shot. exhibit 1 Kirk vs Salvador Perez They tracked each other pretty closely age 21-23, with both having an almost 4 WAR age 23 season. Kirk walked more, but Salvadore hit for a better average at this young age. What happened next? Salvadore began his dark years with a run of 5 consecutive sub .300 on base seasons and was basically a 1 WAR player during this time. However his playing time did not decrease at all. Poor Kirk goes into one little sort of slump, maintaining a good walk rate and a 2 WAR pace, but already was losing playing time before the Jansen injury hmmmm....

With Biggio it seems this may have led to a bad feedback cycle. When he hit slumps no one gives him enough time for his natural skills to normalize, so maybe he his chasing more power. His swing rate has deteriorated and with it his walk rate. There is a narrative that it's the Pitchers that have changed, and they are now throwing Biggio more fastballs in the zone, thus he doesn't walk. I don't think that's the explanation because it is Biggio's swing rates that have changed since 2019/20, his swing rates used to be like Juan Soto's. Kirk is a counter example to the 'Pitchers won't walk powerless weaklings'. Kirks power has deteriorated, and he is a ground ball machine, so Pitchers would hate to walk him especially with guys on base where he is the worlds best candidate for a double play... but Kirk still walks. So these guys with low swing rates maybe are pressured to change as they lose playing time quicker in slumps, unless they are Juan Soto.

Juan Soto true talent level - .290 .440 .550 Caven Biggio true talent level - .250 .370 .400 We've seen Juan Soto can hit .190 .350 .350 for 6 weeks but rebound, Biggio isn't as good so his slump is .140 .290 .330, so even if like Juan he would rebound to true talent level given consistent playing time, his slump results in termination of most playing time and he doesn't ever get the at bats to recover.

Juan Soto is now perfectly fine hitting .268 .430 .500 after a slow start and on pace for 7 WAR or so. Could end up with a monster season if he keeps hot and the slow start gets washed away. He is at a 159 wRC+ which is above his career average. Seems like after all these years players with Soto's skill set are still under-rated. Same could be said about Kirk, Howritz and even Biggio. Look at how many were having the 'Is Soto a top 5 hitter even anymore?" 3 weeks ago. I think there is prejudice against on base guys still, it went away for a while, but for some reason came back and people like a .190 hitter with a .224 on base and a few 110 mphers over on base guys. Like Juan Soto got fixed because he's Juan Soto and he just plays every day, no ones going to bench him on account of a .280 .430 .530 lifetime triple slash... so if he hit's .190 for 6 weeks no worries. But Biggio, Kirk can't do that. All of a sudden people hate on them. How do we know if they just played Biggio all the time he wouldn't regress to his 2020 level, given consistent playing like Soto and encouraged to live his life as a patient .370 on base guy...

It would be totally funny if Spencer winds up with the pirates or something and beats Vlad in WAR hitting .280 with 9 homers. Like Spencer is .280 .370 .390 -3 defense 3.1 WAR and Vlad is .280 .335 .451 -17 defense 2.4 WAR. And Vlad would win a gold glove but Spencer wouldn't not being famous enough.,

EDIT - I realize Yandy was 3rd base last couple of years... just demonstrating how the fWAR could work out for a lower power, high on base -5 Defense player. Yandy Diaz was 1.8 WAR and 3.8 WAR with negative defense in 2021 and 2022, that was before his development into Prime Albert Pujols. Diaz hit .256 .353 .387 in 2021 with -4.9 defense and that was worth 1.8 WAR IN 2022 .296 .401 .423 -5ish D and 3.8 WAR. So the math works out if he could be a good first basemen. It's like Hatteberg... different path but he was part the aggregrate that replaced Giambi and had not too much power., I mean Spencer right now is projected to hit .240 .340 .350, but from what I can tell that was generated before the season, so based on his good aaa year, he may actually be projected to be an OK first basemen if he can play a little first base D.

He really hit well in those parks, and his minor league numbers were insane. Contrary to some people thinking minor league parks are smaller, or easier to hit in, that is not true (minor league pitchers are easier to hit yes...) So why so much success in the minor league parks both at the minor and major league levels? Like if you converted his new hampshire and Buffalo 2019/20 numbers to mlb equivalencies you get the same as hit 2021.... So like is there some huge psychological block going on or something? lol Tampa should find a way to get him, between their crazy batting strategy psycho-hypnosis 9th level alertness system (whatever the f*** it turns out to be), and the 9000 a night crowds (making Vlad think it's the minor leagues), he'll hit .420 .520 .800 for them... no really, if you applied the same boost Harold Ramirez is getting from their system, he would.

According to fangraphs Bo is about +3.5 career as a base runner and +2 on defense so +5.5 on those two, Vlad is -16 and -61.7 so -78. It works out to be about 25 runs per 162

laughing at the Tercet quote... according to him Gurrbabip and Teoscar (the mirage) were suppose to suck to. Like why is this even a question. 2 roughly .845 OPS guys but one can play passable infield defence, Bo is beating Vlad about 15-10 in fWAR career while playing 100 less games. fWar per 162 it's like 5.5 to 2.8 Bo twice is good according to fangraphs, crazy, because even with Vlad's under-performance it doesn't seem like it should be that way. I guess it works out that way because they are actually the same as a hitter and baserunning and defence Bo is like +5 a year, and Vlad -20.

If we assume Rays have a system that allows them to recognize pitches earlier and/or anticipate what pitch is coming it will continue until other teams make adjustments. If they are identifying tells on pitchers, then teams will have to identify the same tells on their own pitchers and clean them up, that will happen eventually. If they are using advanced pitching machines, video and other drills to recognize pitches early then other teams will eventually pick up on the same drills (and offense will increase overall for every team). If they are using analytics and AI to get an edge on predicting pitch sequencing somehow, other teams will have to adjust by randomizing pitch sequencing and eliminating any patterns that could be picked up by other teams. If they are using red-bull laced with nicotine and expresso and timing the intake of this (legal) potion exactly right, and also doing advanced nutrition/sleep/ minimizing alcohol to maximize alertness, then other teams will eventually pick up on the same strategies.

If he's physically OK then days off aren't going to help and they just have to get mentally right. If it's wrist or knee or related DL him and get him healthy.

Vladdy, 2018, hitting .400 as a 19 year old with an 80 hit tool 5 years later Blue Jays 2018 farmhands ranked using fancy fangraphs wRC+ stat... congratulations to the Blue Jays System for producing so many great hitters... Sure the .400 hitting 80 tool guy isn't what we expected, but great job laying the early groundwork for other teams to develop some of the 35 hit tool guys like Noda and Tellez, and the 35 power guy Ramirez into decent players. Bo 154 Gurriel 145 Harold Ramirez 142 Ryan Noda 136 Tellez 130 Vladdy 130

If sign stealing works though, wouldn't a legal system that accomplished the same thing work too? A combination of using pitch machines and mental techniques to get batters recognize pitches super early. Like put them in front of the pitch machine simulating different pitches regularly and do drills to simulate swing decisions, video, video, video, major human and and AI analysis to figure out when guys are tipping, modeling pitch sequences, and regularly updating it and adding predictive analytics, not just looking at what pitchers did last month, but predicting the adjustments. And then presenting the information to players the right way. Like too much information might just have them confused. Perhaps instead of having them conciously look for 'fastball' on pitch 3, it might be more just drills, upon drills, upon drills in front of pitch machines to get them subconciously recognizing pitches early and anticipating.

If I understand this correctly it sounds like they are committing to pitches at the heart of the plate and trying to hammer that pitch and not bothering to try and adjust if the pitch is on the edge of the zone, and willing to take strikes. Instead of adjusting on a nasty pitch they'll take it, or swing as if it's down the middle, instead of adjusting and hitting a weak ground ball. Maybe optimizing swing mechanics for the pitch down the middle, and not worrying if it results in swing and miss at nasty stuff. Probably using advances in pitching machines to train guys to swing down the middle, and take what they can't hit (even if in the zone).

Hasn't seemed the same since the wrist injury... then the knee followed that.

They still made a bunch of baserunning mistakes and their pitchers walked too many guys... jesus way too many guys. They literally won because Bo hit a 425 foot homerun at the right time, and the Swanson ball 4 was called strike 3 instead and changed the game. All the talk about the little things when it is the missing 3 run homeruns as compared to 2015, 2016, 2021 and 2022 that is making just as much a difference. (CD will complain that when we lose 6-5 we should have won, forgetting that 8-6 wins are a thing). Oh well, thank god for the meeting, hopefully it's a start of 15 game winning streak.

Judge walks 120 in his good years. Delgado walked 120 in his good year. Olerud walked 115 in his good year. Bautista walked 132 in his best year. Vladdy is not his Dad and has to be a 100 walk guy in his good years.

What happened? I turned it on to hear something about Vladdy somehow grounding into a double play, with Springer on 2nd and a 3-1 count. How exactly does that work? And now I hear the Twins getting hits... I guess they have the Gauss tell and know if it's a splitter or fastball.... seem to recall they had it last year too. At least the first game in Rogers Center against him.

Could see a literal base clogging tonight. Varsho doubles Kirk Walks Kiemair hit by pitch Springer what should be a double and 3 runs turns into a single and 1 run with Kirk clogging the bases.

PEDs or sign stealing? If latter how with pitch com?

I remember there was a flaw in WAR back then and at one point in 2012 Lawrie was like leading the majors in WAR by a ridiculous amount because it didn't correct for the shift properly. Even without the flaw in WAR Lawrie looked really good through his first 100 games. Great 2011, solid first half of 2012. Then he crashed to nothing in like a week, maybe partly on account of crashing into the camera bay at Yankee Stadium (though he came out of the camera bay seemingly OK in the moment).

Other than Manoah they've developed no player signed or drafted after Dec 31st 2016.

Not discounting that they are cheating but if so how. Do you mean with performance enhancers or sign stealing? If sign stealing how with teams using pitch com? I look at it this way. Cheating works. Get loaded up on roids and amphetamines, and steal signs so you know what pitch is coming, it helps a lot. Is this type of cheating still possible? Cycle right, take the blue pill at the right time (not like Ben Johnson who took the blue pill too close to the Olympics)... can it be done? Hack the pitch com. Or alternatively lets say a smart organization wants to get the benefits of cheating without technically cheating. Superb strength, reflexes like you were on amphetimines, hit pitches like you know what's coming. 1. For strength, optimize all workouts, diet, and legal supplements, as to be as strong as possible without technically cheating. 2. Instead of amphetamines use all legal alertness aids (coffee, red bull, nicotine, whatever else is legal), optimize sleep patterns to optimize alertness, minimize alcohol. 3. In lieu of sign stealing, use advanced pattern recognition (AI you don't even need a complicated one), to analyze sequences in almost real time so guys at the plate have an optimized plan. Perhaps even signal from the dugout what pitch to look for (probably not cheating if not stealing a sign, but just using a data predictor with the input the past pitch sequence). 4. Use AI and a video analysis team to figure out when pitchers are tipping. 4. Use video and pitch machines for 'early as possible' pitch recognition. 5. Massive analysis of pitch and swing mechanics with day to day adjustments.

The front office and the high (a.k.a. low) performance team fell behind somehow. Tampa Bays numbers are unexplainable. Did Tampa bay get even one new position player? I just went through their team stats and every player was also on the 650 run .377 slugging team last year. They've improved their slugging percentage 120 points with 0 new players. Honestly what the hell is going on? Every single player has improved dramatically since last year, out performing projections. Gone from 139 homeruns to on pace for 300 with the same team. Like f***ing honestly. Give us some answers here. Meanwhile our guys, with historically better pedigree and track records, at least for power, are all losing a bit of power.

An injury caused by over-use can result in loss of control before loss in velocity. Or at least that's what Buck says. So maybe not technically 'dead arm' but if there is an injury perhaps a result of the huge innings increase from 2019 to 2022, though it is unclear what he (or any minor league Pitchers) did in 2020 to simulate a workload.