Olerud363

Voters may be smarter now, but they voted for Ichiro in 2001 because of the Story. Giambi beat him 9.3 to 6.0, Brett Boone 7.8 to 6.0, and a few other guys on contenders beat Ichiro, but Ichiro got the MVP. So you may say, well Ichiro was a good base-runner and defensive player so that's OK. However we are talking about what 'story' will make the voters go for a 6 WAR guy over the WAR leaders.... Is the .400 and leading the Marlins to the playoffs a better story than a Japanese legend hitting .350 with good D and baserunning and leading Seattle to 116 wins?

If that happened it probably depends whether Miami makes the playoffs. However while I think Araez could hit .350 and only have 4 WAR, I still think IF he hit .400 he'd have to be so locked in that other things going right, like more homers and doubles, more walks if pitchers start nibbling, more runs, even better baserunning. Who knows. hmmmm... lol. Tony Gwynn had mediocre War (for a .370 hitter) between 94 and 97... lol. So bad defensively he was at about Arraez's level in terms of WAR. Even worse a couple of those years. Like .350 with 2 WAR and .372 .409 .547 (17 homers) but only 4 WAR. I guess Arraez can hit .400 with 5.8 WAR.

Really Injuries killed him. 2015 Blue Jays started out with a bunch or rookies. Sanchez, Norris, Osuna, Castro, Pompey and Travis. Only Sanchez and Osuna survived to the end. Basically injuries to Donaldson, Sanchez, Pompey, Tulo, and Travis destroyed the great 2017-18 Blue Jays teams. AA left Shatkins all that and their high (a.k.a. low) performance team could not keep that group healthy.

Hypothetically if he hits .400, his next 100 games of .400 will probably be worth more WAR, than the previous 60 because we have to assume he'll hit for a bit more power and go back to a 0 baserunner. Like .400 for 1/3 of season with 1 homer and -5 base running, was 2 WAR, so if he did another .400 for the next 3rd of a season with 3 homers and neutral baserunning it's probably closer to 3... and he does that for another third of the season he'll be close to 8 WAR . Conditional that he hit's .400 in 150 games he's probably getting out-WARED 9-7.x or something by the WAR leader and it's a pretty typical difference between WAR leader, and MVP with a better story.

That would have been justified though, to win the triple Crown in 2021 Vlad would have had to hit .320 50 125 and finish strong, and the extra runs would almost certainly mean the Jays win a couple of extra games and make the playoffs. There have been debates about this before but it's the MVP award, not the fangraphs WAR award. So there a cases where a guy with less WAR does something impressive and leads his team to the playoffs then perhaps he deserves the MVP. MVP is not an exact science, like in 2015 Josh Donaldson had less WAR than Trout, but led the league in several important categories and ended the Blue Jays 20 year playoff drought. Back to Ohtani 9 WAR vs a hypothetical Vlad Triple Crown, with 7 WAR leading Jays to playoffs, probably still Ohtani because the 2-way story was insane too. However if it was Vlad triple crown + playoffs with 7 WAR vs Trout with 9 WAR, Vlad would probably have won, as we saw back with Miggy.

An alternative explanation is that his low runs scored are just a fluke because of weird batted ball events behind him, like an abnormal number of hits he can't advance on, then the baserunning numbers are low because he isn't advancing as much as he should, but that is because of fluky events behind him, not him. Like if a guy hits a 109 mph single when he's on second, right to a right fielder with a good arm and he can't score, the baserunning system probably pings him, but it's not his fault.

He's the worst baserunner in the league according to fangraphs. Haven't watched him play so not sure why, or if that number is really meaningful, but he's apparently down -5 runs baserunning and if that is true that would account for a good portion of the expected runs scored.

When has this happened? Obviously you are referring to the people including myself who called Baltimore a great organization, but what other organization have people done this with? People were impressed by Mike Elias because he said all the right things and he came from Houston. They were impressed at how Baltimore built a bullpen. Impressed how they've build a team without (so far) contributions from their high round draft picks save Rutcshman. Impressed with the discipline at the trade deadline last year, impressed with the discipline with the payroll. Impressed with how they played Covid perfect (if intentional), holding off on competiveness when no and limited fans were in the seats, and starting to win right as fans came back. Super impressed with how patient all their prospects seem to be. Not always the case and we'll see how it transitions to the majors. Impressed with how they've mostly hit all their top 5 picks, which isn't always the case. Baltimore used to run a pretty competitive payroll and if they start adding they are in great shape. We'll see what happens... Since 2016: Number of non-covid years Baltimore has had a winning team = 1 (2022) Number of non-covid years Toronto has had a winning team = 1 (2022) What will this look like in 5 years? Bugs me how Baltimore is loved by some, but gets no credit by others, for playing Covid right, hitting their picks, building a bullpen out of nothing, developing good position players from second tier prospects, etc, etc.

The Doc story is more nuanced than the version people like to tell, that he was sent down to a+ to rebuild his delivery. In 2000 Doc was having a season like Manoah except worse (10.x ERA), lot's of walks, screwed the Jays in what was a weak AL East, lost them Michael Young when they had to trade him for help, then he was sent down to Syracuse and was bad there too 5.x ERA. Then it was spring of 2001 he was sent down to A+ in Spring Training. In that context it wasn't as controversial, just keep him in Dunedin and have him work on things in the nice weather to some extent. Though they did move him up 1 level at a time. However with Manoah now does it make sense to have him in Buffalo? travelling on buses and eating at the Denny's in Columbus Ohio? Kind of would make sense at this point to go to Dunedin and work in a nice environment closer to his home... I guess on the other hand Dunedin is now a level lower, so may not be enough of a challenge even to Manoah... A+ is Vancouver now.

Wade Boggs routinely put up 8 WAR with single digit homerun numbers. I think he did 8 WAR with 3 homers in '89 Ironically it's Arraez's baserunning that is knocking down his WAR significantly. He is at like -5 already. I think with good baserunning he'd be on track for 7-8 WAR. He is the worst baserunner in baseball... He also has only scored 21 runs while getting on base the most in baseball. Weird.

Before his thumb injury Moreno hit 44 doubles, 8 triples, and 24 homeruns in 159 games over his age 18, 19 and 21 seasons. Since the thumb injury he has been not hitting for so much power. I wonder if important tendons in the thumb were just f***ed up beyond repair. Is that a thing?

Hitting wise after his age 22 152 wRC+ season his wRC+ are 101, 142, 94, 133, 140 and 87 in 50 games this year. A lot of injuries in there and some really long stretches of being below average. Overall above average as a hitter though so 'mediocre' is probably unfair. Some semantics there but meant more like 'mediocre' given where he was as a minor leauger and at age 22.

I like the graph but I am having a hard time choosing who he is most similar too. I think it's because comparing him to other 21st century first basemen isn't quite the right comparison group to figure out what the possibilities are from here. I think the comparison group should be hitting stats (forget D) for teenage minor league phenoms called up at 19 or 20. Trout, Harper, Juan Gonzales (going back a ways), Jayson Heyward actually... who else in the last 30 years. Is there even enough to form a good comparison group. Carlos Correa too maybe? a) Minor league teenage hotshot with holy f***ing s*** numbers, and BA America gave the best prospect in baseball stamp or close to it. called up at 19 or 20 and played regularly. Overall WAR won't quite be the right number, because some guys will have good D value, but we know Vlad will be a negative D guy, we really just want figure out what the possibilities are as a hitter. Correa is like the bad case (as a hitter), dynamite minor league numbers, best prospect in baseball, crazy good hitter at age 22 (missing 50 games though), then mediocre years after that never regaining age 22 form. Jayson Heyward is extreme negative case. Good hitter at 20-22 (but no dynamite year) then disaster. His D numbers though cover up the medicore hitting a bit.

It will be true about Vlad though. The problem with Vlad is he's only on pace for 20-25 WAR in his 20s. He's half as valuable as Harper. As a hitter they are actually weirdly similar with their combination of best hitter in the game stretches and then a couple of years looking ordinarily above average. Harper walks way more though and while not great defensively isn't nearly as bad as Vlad, Vlad has as much negative D in 5 years as Harper in 12. With the walks and better defence it works out to Harper being twice as good (just as Bo is twice as good) at least according to the fangraphs.

Also Brett Wallace, an obese guy who's minor league numbers didn't really translate. Travis Snider 20 f***ing years old and given to Cito to develop and the first thing he and Gene Tennace did is tell him he a was a s***-ball. Then Wallace was traded for Gose, who looked real interesting but Grant hated. Was Grant right or wrong since he loved Wallace but hated Gose and they both failed? There was a moment in late 2011 early 2012, when they had about 20 interesting young players and then by 2013 they were winning 75 games with all the young players gone and Melky and Reyes and some Bonifacio guy in.

Based career stats, including minor league stats, and batted ball stats the computer probably still says Varsho is a better hitter than Biggio and Keirmaier. I will check the fangraphs computer hold on it says Varsho .240 .309 .470 or so, Keirmaier .252 .309 .410, Biggio .219 .320 .350 or so So they want a lefty and the computer still says Varsho is the best. So like the question is are you better off hitting the hot hitters high up? Or just going by career averages and computer predictions? What is the correlation last 4 weeks to next? Shouldn't the computer predictions know that?

Not really directing this at you, but serious question. What are the great small-ball games people remember? Who is the greatest small ball team ever? Who is the greatest small ball team of recent memory? I was thinking 2014/2015 KC might be... but I honestly think they were sign stealing, just looking back at the multiple clusters of hits at just the right time. They probably had a system which they only used when needed.

Order of importance for offense Homeruns On base Sign stealing Amphetamines Weight lifting and strength building bunts and small ball

The people bitching now aren't the same ones that think you need to manufacture runs. I don't remember any historic bunts in Blue Jays history, I remember the Sprague, Alomar and Carter homeruns. I vaguely remember losing to Detroit 1-0 in 87 because some guy hit a homerun... I remember Carlos f***ing Santana first got our old manager Charlie fired because he hit game winning homeruns on back to back days, then he started the big comeback against our new manager, John, by hitting a 3 run homerun. I remember watching the Astros win the World series on a 3 run homerun by Alvarez. I remember f***ing Judge winning multiple games with homeruns (happens all the time, but most recent was like 2 weeks ago). Still trying to remember historic bunts. I am sure there are some, but ... hmmm ... I remember f***ing Jose Bautista got f***ing punched and almost knocked out because he hit such a big homerun and bat-flipped in the playoffs the year before. Still not remembering any historic small ball... I do remember KC in 2014 and 2015 getting a bunch of clustered hits at 'just the right time' (game 4 2015 ALDS, game 2 2015 ALCS, a couple of 2015 world series games, 2014 wild card game, a lot of hits at "just the right time", in retrospect was like sign stealing).

I know it's funny when even I am talkin' pull dat ball. What I mean is pull some of the fly balls. Like it would be interesting to see some Jays players pull/center/oppo percentages on fly balls and ground balls. Like pull dat ball and kill the 3rd base coach, or pull dat ball into a double play isn't good... or swing at everything trying to pull dat ball and have a .280 on base percentage isn't good. What is good is like the 1993, or 2003, or 2015 Jays and just get 850-900 runs, like probably need some walks, some oppo and some pull dat ball in even ratios. I think a lot of guys on this board would be a good owner. Like they wouldn't quite know enough to be hitting coach, but they could help interview the GM and make sure he will hire a hitting coach who can 'pull dat ball' just the right amount, like not so little you get beat by Toros 347 foot homer, while having a few 390 foot flyouts, but not so much everyone hits .238.

No idea. Jays apparently lost without striking out. Thought there was an interesting discussion about that so weird to see the thread closed. Guess people couldn't resist giving their two cents when Tony Bass got booed. Will any Jays pull dat ball today? Or just some 390 foot fly outs to center (or maybe a double if it's slightly off center like Biggio's last night, Vladdy's was dead center so just a fly out). Will Jays strike out today? Will they walk? Will they hit a homerun? Aaron Judge will probably have 2 of each in a hypothetical long game where he gets 6 at bats. Will they lose because some weaking like Toro pulls a 348 foot ball down the line?

Joe Mauer vs. John Olerud is an interesting one. Olerud is beating him 58-53 in WAR, Mauer beats Olerud WAR per game. Olerud has 2 World Series rings for those who think that should give players a boost. Interesting because they are really similar as hitters, with the same combination of a couple of spectacular batting title best hitter in the game type seasons, with a bunch of seasons that don't look amazing on the back of the baseball card but are solid. Jorge Posada and Brian McCann are interesting. In 2010 McCann was like 70 runs better than Posada on defense. Weird. Posada has a -30 defense year on fangraphs, while Molina, Martin, McCann all have a aproximately 50 season. That's like an 80 run difference from worst to best fangraphs catcher defense... probably why some people don't quite trust the fWar for catchers.

Sort of stupid, because Martin also made the playoffs almost every year, with different teams, and helped Pittsburgh and Toronto end long playoff droughts. On the other hand Martin didn't hit very well in the playoffs (.190), while Molina wasn't spectacular, but around his career averages.

Greg Zaun vs. Salvadore Perez is an interesting one. They are very close. Zaun better per game but Perez 1 more career WAR. Most people remember Greg Zaun as a Don Cherry wannabe that got canned just like Don Cherry eventually did. I think people would be surprised to hear he has the same fWAR as Salvadore. Another guy who bounced around and was seemingly under-rated because he was an on base guy. In 2008, when he got re-hired, Cito immediately made sure Rod Barajas got 75% of the playing time and sent Zaun where he belonged on the bench, but Zaun was a nice piece for the 2005-2008 Jays. Real interesting thing is Zaun's defensive numbers explode his last 3 years. Was this because they changed the defensive metrics around 2008? Zaun also has the higher peak fWAR then Perez, 3.6 in 90 games in 2009... for some reason the d-numbers exploded around then. Another case though of some poor .350 on base guy with (mayby?) really good defense having to sit for the aggressive .280 on base percentage of Rod Barajas.

Totally. Another interesting exhibit is Yadier Molina vs Russell Martin Same career WAR but Martin did it in 500 less games. Both have built their WAR largely on ridiculous defensive numbers, so if you think Martin is a bit over-rated because he wasn't really a +50 defensive player one year, because no one is, same applies to Molina. Martin has an edge because he has twice as many walks, so better offensive player despite an average 30 points lower. Both 55 WAR guys. 55 WAR with less walks and more games = HALL OF FAME! Actually if you asked some fans to rate the 3, it would probably go Molina, Perez, Martin