Olerud363

Trade them back Kevin Gaussman for top 4 Orioles non-Jackson Holliday prospects.

I remember back in 2020 looking at Video of Vlad in 2020 hitting a 360 foot homer compared to his Montreal homer in 2018 when he was in better shape, and it just seemed obvious his swing was way less explosive. Then obviously in 2021 he was in better shape and back to the explosive swing with iconic 115 mph homers... Kirk right now seems like he's just got a slow out of shape swing, different than mid last year where he looked in better shape with a nice quick swing and 110 mph homers occasionally... maybe nothing to it and just a slump not a difference in fitness between 2022 and 2023... not sure.

Maybe the .220 average makes him look fatter but Kirk looks more out of shape than ussual, and I remember discussions during 2020 (Vlad) about real out of shape guys have a higher ground ball rate because they are out of shape and bat speed is a bit slower, and because the gut itself can effect swing mechanics. Anyone remember this? Anything to that.

Right now the trade is only a failure if Varsho is really a .220 and Moreno is a .320 hitter, and maybe there is some worry there with 175 PAs of Varsho data to add to his first 3 seasons, and Moreno now being a .320 hitter through almost 200 PAs. Logic dictates that Varsho's .250 bapip and Moreno's .398 and Kirk's .250 and Gurriels .330 will all move closer together and all 4 players will look different. Will be interesting to follow...l

So far the big difference is mostly from Kirk/Varsho hitting .220 and Moreno/Gurriel hitting .320. I think that difference will still even out, and both groups of players may end up at .280, in which case Kirk Varsho will likely be worth more and the trade will look fine. I can see why the trade 'feels' bad emotionally. I thought Varsho was not really a .230 hitter based on his minor league numbers, so would get even better, thought for sure Kirk would continue to take another step up offensively (was elite first half last year and I thought he got tired) so thought those 2 players would be just as valuable as Bo/Guerrero (as they were last year). Now of all a sudden it looks like Varsho can't even hit .230 and Kirk is a fat-boy who looks like a Yankee coach not a ball-player and is a .220 hitting ground ball machine who is probably mentally damaged now seeing his manager fat-shaming, mean while Gurriel is the hitter described as being better than his brother (not that his brother was consistently great) and Moreno is a gold glove batting title contending super star... it really feels bad optically right now but hopefully that is just an illusion.

Chicken or the egg? Only year Vlad was better than Judge was when his walk rate was higher (2021). Vlad was hitting hot so they pitched around him? Or patient so was hitting well? Everyone complains that Judge got a slider down the middle, but he gets that because he didn't swing at and get out on the good ones out of the zone Being captain obvious here, but McGriff, Delgado, Bautista, Donaldson, they all had to take a lot of walks after they got established. Vlad needs to be taking 100 walks just like them.

Thus far TBR also has had a 5 year down cycle after their real good 2008-2012 run, now up and again though this upcycle might last decades (along with Baltimore) given they still have a great young core. However these down cycles happen for the good small market teams. Can't really blame Beane for team leaving, more like now that they are leaving they want to win 40 games a year for 23, 24 and 25 and then move immediately to 105 a year moment they hit Las Vegas.

Plus no one has any idea how exactly the latest set of moves by the As will work out. They are literally on month 8 of the down cycle. Their previous downcycles I think were 2007 to 2011, then 2015-2017 so down cycles are 3 to 5 years. So can't really evaluate until 2027. If by then they still don't have anything going conclude Beane and co. have lost it

Really scary similar. Romero had a similar year to Manoah's 2022 in 2011 and then that was all she wrote.... I don't think he went on the injured list the next 2 years. Up all of 2012 and horrible. Did not pitch in 2013 hardly at all, but did pitch 100+ innings in Buffalo. Jays had such horrible luck at times. 2012 team looked like it could be a fun young team and started off well, then they lost Romero (imposion), Hutchison (TJ), Drabek (TJ), Morrow (injury to hip or something), Lawrie (headcase), Bautista (wrist) within about a 1 month period. Just a bunch of assets crashed to nothing. Like I remember on a June Day in 2012 seeing Lawrie at age 22 was beating Mike Trout in WAR since he'd been up, Bautista was the best hitter in baseball, Romero, Hutchison, Drabek and Morrow were a great young rotation. Then 4 weeks later none of those players were playing and their careers were off all off track to various degrees. I can't remember if it was the same series, I don't think it was, but at Yankee stadium Bautista hurt his wrist real bad and was done for the year, and Lawrie crashed into a camera bay hard and was never the same. I think it was 2 different series one in July, one in August, but 2012 showed how quickly a promising young team can become nothing. Oh.. trade deadline 2012 brought the official end of Travis Snider, and Eric Thames, 2 promising left handed hitters officially 'not going to happen', although that had been a work in progress for Snider for a while. Travis Snider, David Cooper, Brett Lawrie, Eric Thames, Colby Rasum, J.P. Arencibia, Hutchison, Drabek, Morrow, Romero... so sad. So many young players and they all went from promising to nothing in such a short time.

The issues with Olerud are well documented, but I think in addition to the AL East thing, there were just major issues with management being behind the curve after Gillick left. They had Otis Nixon, Carlos Garcia, Joe Carter, Benito Santiago, Ed Sprague as key players on a team that was expected to contend in 1997. Using like 1996 excel spread sheet, league averages and aging curve you could figure out these guys were not expected to provide any offense... but Jays did not realize that.... And in fact when they had predictable problems they got Ruben Sierra (lol).

Good comparison. Rob Deer had a little more time in the low minors so his overall batting average in the minors isn't as low as Orelvis's. However high minors numbers are comparable. Deer had some .220ish seasons with big time power in the minors and basically did the same in the majors. A related question is whether there has ever been a hitter who hit .200 in the minors for an extended time but fixed the problem and was a good hitter in the majors? It is pretty typical for guys to have bad years in the minors and rebound, Teoscar hit .219 for a full year in aa, but rebounded and hit as high as .290 in the majors. However I guess what is worrying people is Orelvis' is not rebounding (well until the last week). Still young as everyone mentions and a Rob Deer type hitter who could play a good third and backup ss would be an asset.

Looks like Orelvis hit a single and a double tonight so far. A lot of players lose some average going to the majors and gain power. What will Orelvis do? Like if he loses a little average and gains power where would that put him? Like will he he hit .100, 60 for 600, 50 homers 8 double a triple and a single? lol. So maybe he'll just .220 .300 .500 and be an OK player if he can play a decent 3rd. Got to think he is an absolute wild card and maybe still a prospect just because he has an odd profile, like you can't do the usual take away some average with him. Has there ever been a .220 hitter with great power in the minors who got an extended look in the majors?

Toronto is east of Cleveland, but Cleveland is east of Detroit. Originally before Tampa Bay came into existence the East was 5 great, great franchises in order of greatness (with greatness score) NY Yankees 98.7 Boston Red Sox 95.6 Toronto Blue Jays 89.2 Detroit Tigers 89.2 Baltimore Orioles 89.2 I can't really see why Toronto would have even considered the Central. At the time they would not have known the Yankees were about to embark on a 30 year run, Boston would be good 25/30 years or so, and they could not have foreseen the existence of TBR. Paul Beeston also didn't realize he was a phony moron, and Cito Gaston was a moron to. If it wasn't for the fact that Pat Gillick left and Paul Beeston and Cito Gaston were massive morons everything would have been OK, even in the East. In the mid 90s there was a lot of low hanging fruit in analytics, Toronto had a great farm system, and all they had to do to be good in the late 90s was to read the 1988 Bill James baseball abstract like Billy Beane did. If they read the abstract and realized that on base percentage was still under-appreciated, with their financial might they could have kept Alomar and Olerud and thrown Cito and Joe Carter into the sea, and started picking up under-rated on base guys and would have been fine.

Kirk/Varsho have a lot more upside than Reynolds/Moreno though right now Reynolds and Moreno are playing better. Kirk has elite contact skills and an elite eye and a huge hitting ceiling, Varsho is a great defensive player and hit .300 .372 .510 in the minors. His ceiling is hitting like Reynolds but with better baserunning and defense. It's impossible to predict what any player is going to do, but Kirk and Varsho are hitting .235 together vs Moreno and Reynolds hitting .300 together. Yet Kirk and Varsho aren't too far behind in WAR because of their other skills. If they all 'regressed' to hitting .280 then Kirk/Varsho would be much better players with their other skills. EDIT - I know Varsho is a .230 lifetime hitter, the idea of 'regressing' to .280 is based on his minor league stats and fact he is entering his prime years. 'Regressing' may not be the right word, but based on minor league stats .230 may not be Varsho's 'true' talent level + he is entering his prime (26-28) 3 year period.

They've already had 3 years of the window. 2020 was weird but by the end of it they had Ryu, Ray, Shoemaker, Walker, Stripling, Biggio/Teoscar/Gurriel at their peak value... don't know what moves would have available without Covid and the weird half season, but in September of that year they actually had a nice team. So it may end up being a 6 year window. It is already the first time they had back to back 90 win seasons since early 90s. Bo/Vlad still haven't won a playoff game and they've done 4 years of their 6.5. It goes fast. Teoscar/Gurriel/Rowdy and Biggio (collapse) already done. It's dissapointing that the 'sustainable' winner thing looks like it might nor happen, though minor league systems are hard to predict. Since 2002 and Riccardi they've all promised this magical prospect machine which will provide a young player or two every year, and then all of a sudden they are signing Frank Thomas/Tulo/Springer along with a bunch of others... lol. Happened with every regime at about year 4.

This years Rays yes. In past years Rays have had somewhat meddling rotations. In fact the 100 win 2021 Rays had 2 horrible starting pitchers leading the team in innings. Yarbaraugh and Wacha had 5+ ERAs. However somehow the Rays made it work because everyone else was good and bullpen was good. In 2021 the Rays won 100 games with bulk starters that weren't that great. Seattle last year is another example. Smart organizations with a couple of bulk starters that aren't the best, but a bunch of good bullpen arms and up and comers will do fine. Bradish does project not to great, but not horrible and struck out 288 in 220 minor league innings. Kind of guy a smart organization will find a way to get 120 good innings from.

Aren't their 3b, ss, centerfielder all good defensively? Not Gunmnar Henderson but I recall Urias, Mateo, Mullins all being good d, they'll sort of move Henderson around if he's not good at third and could easily run out a good defensive team. Though they have to also balance that with getting all left handed hitters to take advantage of their freak park. The Orioles are run by x-Houston guys. Everyone on the board always says the Jays aren't 'as smart' as some organizations, and want the x-Houston guys... So aren't these smart X-Houston guys gonna figure out the analytics to get good matchups every game and get the most possible out of this team? I think they'll get the D-guys in when they need them. Make sure the WARless starters with 6 ks per 9 have a good D behind them, get the left handed hitters in other times to take advantage of the freak park. The Orioles are going to be good, especially if you assume Houston guys are smart.

They have Rodriquez and Bradish with not many innings and high k-rates and minor league numbers this board would love, and then they have most of their innings pitched by starters with low k-rates who WAR will hate. So it is a bit deceptive. If the crafty veterans hold it together with their low k-rates and Rodriquez and Bradish perform the rotation will be fine at run prevention but under-rated by WAR.

Spent the morning looking over minor league stats, not just Jays but Mayer's and Matt Holiday's son's.stats.. Given Francos' 14 year 88 million dollar contract or whatever the f*** those *******s signed him to, opening day 2024 Red Sox/Rays/Orioles may have trinity-2 -- potentially better then Nomar/A-Rod/Jeter trinity. and Jays are a couple of days from last place with the most miserable farm system I can remember.... hmmmm... The only hope might be the dark years. Not my idea, saw another poster come up with it last night. 2026-2030 looking very dark. Idea would be to use the Dark years to create an Orioles like team for 2031 Jays "Dark Years" key players Orelvis Martinez - if playing everyday could challenge Jose Canseco's record for lowest WAR with 45+ homers. Jordan Romano - Nice Canadian boy to market with, if he get's a little worse he could be a 2-7 4.24 ERA closer, 27 for 38 in saves and avoiding fluking to the 11th pick with 1 run wins Santiago Espinal - Apparently John Schneider's nieces favourite player or something. Could hit .220 with 6 homers. Alan Roden - Could be a solid .240 .340 .380 line drive first basemen. Addison Barger - Apparently sucks at defense according to Jonn? I think. Could be a 20-30 guy (20 homers with 30+ errors, as long as he keeps the on base percentage down a good dark years player). Tiederman/Barriera - showing enough injury potential and maybe lack of control that they could be reliable 100 innings 5.33 ERA guys, but with enough promise Jays don't sign starting depth. George Springer - only signed for first year of the dark years, but on pace to rival Joe Carter's 1997 by then. For Maximum pain Jays win 80, 82, and 81 next 3 years, Bo/Vlad go to Red Sox/Orioles

Same could have been said about Yandy Diaz. Overbay looks like he had power in the minors but was playing in extreme hitters leagues. So yeah, given he doesn't have a lot of power what are the chances he becomes a .280 .380 .440 guy and puts up 2.5 WAR a year. And is a needed piece on a team with the 8th highest payroll but needs all the payroll space they can get to sign some guys long term and avoid 50 wins a year from 2026-30 (as another poster mentioned). (though if we want a Baltimore like team the 2026-2030 dark years will be part of that recipe). Spencer - hitting .280 .390 .460 with good defense replacing Vlad for the 2026 Blue Jays, they are working hard to get a surprising 77 wins and the 14th overall pick. In that case Spencer is not helping the 2032 super-team come to existance.

Spencer Horwitz is like the only guy who isn't a big disappointment. What do people think his chances are of putting up some ok years, something like Lyle Overbay or Yandy Diaz? Professional hitter type with a late start.

BA seems to be considering Yoshida a "prospect" and have him up considerably, Marcello Mayer is hitting for a bit more power this year and Nick Yorcke is having a nice year. So you have 3 prospects who have improved and 2 who aren't performing. So the only way you get to be "right" is by cherry picking and gas lighting us. Ignore the improvements and only consider the failures. Classic Grant. I admit it is debatable whether Yoshida should be a prospect or not, at 29, but if we are looking at players who will help the next 5 years, Red Sox are way ahead of the Jays. The only thing standing in the way of the Red Sox having the number one prospect in baseball in a month (when graduations kick in) is Jackson Holliday. Anyway you can gaslight all you want, but I have many Red Sox friends, friendly but confident, joy in their hearts knowing Marcello is their next great star, confident in their management. Knowing they will never have a barren farm system, never have to panic, never have to think about a "window", just successful years pretty much 3/4, with the occasional down year used to get the next Red Sox legend (not converting a 5 pick and Stroman Trade and 100 million into Berrios) (of course if you cherry pick you will find Red Sox mistakes too I guess, and you are good at cherry picking).

One thing this front office seems to do is replace a free agent with a similar player in terms of age and cost. Everyone was freaking at the end of 2021 that the Jays were "losing" 12 WAR. However they replaced Semien and Ray, with Chapman and Gausman, and kept the projections going forward exactly the same. Also replaced Matz with Kikuchi, Stripling with Bassitt. So the question is more if they have 700 million for 2 mega-contracts will they find a good way to spend it? Whether it is on Bo and Guerrero, 2 other players, or a different use of that money?

Hasn't been a good 7 months for Grant, with Toronto getting beat by the worst playoff team ever in October, then the same team comes back Sunday to start this losing streak, with the four game sweep by the worst organizaton in baseball. We'll see what happens, but all of a sudden the worst organization in baseball history has rebuilt a top 3 offense with a bunch of savy moves. Connor Wong, Emanuel Valdez, Yoshida, Verdugo, Durran, Kind of got a bunch of unheralded guys, acquired different ways, but in their prime 24-29 years. They have a bunch of 19 year olds in their 'worse ever over-rated' farm system, with Mayer potentially a star, and the rest could be something, or could put up some hot numbers and be part of trade packages. I would not be surprised if they get Ohtani and go on a similar run to their 2016-2018 run. Blue Jays Vlad/Bo years Year 1 of contention - Random Red Sox team steals the playoff spot by 1 game Year 2 of contention - Mariners embarass them in wild card Year 3 of contention - Red Sox team rebuilds in 6 months with savy pickups to take the wild card lead from Jays at around 1/4 mark of season. Lots of season to go, but tip your hat to one of the best organizations in baseball for a possible quick trip back to the playoffs if their pitching comes around at all.

In 2022 Raimel Tapia had 6 starts at lead off, 32 at bats and did a very excellent job, posting an above average .344 on base percentage the real mans way (no walks) Batting 1st 8 6 32 32 7 11 2 0 1 7 1 0 0 7 .344 .344 .500 .844 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 .417 149 135