Olerud363

Their management wasn't trained in Baltimore, they were trained in Houston. Is it fair to evaluate Mike Elias by what different people did for 30 years? Pat Gillick for a while, then a bad decade, than 2012-2016 they had a better record and more playoff appearances than the Jays, then a partly on purpose Tank at the beginning of the Elias era... So what evidence is there that Baltimore has repeatedly screwed up their competitive windows? You'd have to back 15-20 years, which isn't relative now, they succeeded well enough their last winning cycle. And their farm system isn't just 'excellent'. It's bizarrely abnormally good, like almost every hitter in their top 20 putting up video game numbers. And their payroll is in absolutely pristine shape. This isn't Oakland or TBR. They'll be a 2.5 million to 3 million attendance team in their winning run, and probably be able to run a 200 million dollar payroll... at least in the past they've run a top 10 payroll. Perhaps Angelos is in financial trouble, Jesus, he is like 93 or something. Is he even still functional? Alive still I think. I think I heard his kids are arguing over the team. So maybe they are morons, or maybe somehow the team gets sold and new owner raises payroll. Whatever it's probably not going to be an Angelos making any calls about what the money is spent on, it will be Elias.

We'll see what happens. They've been playing Henderson at short a few games in a row now. They have 3 guys Cowser, Westberg and Kjerstad raking at aaa, however with Mountcastle down have decided to look at a couple of journeyman instead of calling one of them up. If they are really the greatest organization in baseball history I see them having another seemingly 'sell' trade deadline that will shock people. Two or three of Mountcastle, Urias, Hays, Satlander and perhaps a hot reliever will be traded for some mlb ready arms. Cowser, Westberg and Kierstad will be called up. Then they will trade 3 of their second level prospects (8th or below) for the an arm with control. Rodriquez and Hall will be back in a few weeks with some fixers implemented for whatever ailed them... perhaps as relievers. We will see. All the above is assuming they are the best organization in baseball history, led by Yale/Astros alumni and certified genius Mike Elias... or maybe Elias is a phony... we will see. Can't predict the future.

The Yankees should be at the top level. They've finished ahead of the Blue Jays like the last 6 years and so far this one. Averaging like 97 wins a year since 2017. Their bad stretch 2014 to 2016 included taking the Blue Jays to game 152 in the division race in 2015. Sox should be ahead of Blue Jays until Blue Jays win a playoff game. The Sox won the World Series in 2018, and their current 2020-2023 version that is the worst team in baseball history is beating the Jays 2020-2023 teams in playoff wins 6-0. Shut out so far. (FYI just checked Sox prospects including their super prospect Marcello Mayer, he is like going early 2023 Orelvis in aa... what is it with these prospects that are having trouble hitting .320 .420 .580? Orioles top 20 prospects all do that no problem)

But if you really have left wing beliefs wouldn't you love the Baltimore Orioles because they are everything leftism represents?? For example the Orioles are led by Yale graduate Mike Elias. In leftism the wise ones trained at ivy league schools are expected to lead our society to a better place. Obama, the Clintons, Bill Gates, Zuckerberg, wise ones who know how to centrally plan a society. Mike Elias, is clearly demonstrating that ivy league logic, compassion, wisdom and science work. Shouldn't all the lefties be really happy about this? Shouldn't the Justin Trudeau lovers, be confident that Elias' will have great teams, because if you 'trust the science' good things will happen? Why would a lefty have any faith that the corrupt blue jays, trying to buy solutions to their problems with a 220 million dollar payroll will have any chance against the 50 million dollar a year Orioles who trust the science? (developing baseball players is a science).

Do you think the lefties are more positive? Wilner is very left and very positive, same with Stoeten. Kind of the "take the vax, be an allie, Jays still on pace for 95 wins, I mean 92, I mean 88, I mean 85.... kind of guys".

I think he's fine putting together a 'winner', both in 2016 and 2021-23 he was fine at getting extra pieces from outside organization, in fact great at it. but this organization has been sub-par at the type of development you need to round out an elite roster. The 21-23 teams would look incredible if Atkins could have developed a bullpen like the Rays or Orioles do. If he could have developed simply 1 starting pitcher, a couple of bullpen arms, and kept Vlad/Kirk* fit and performing to the higher end of expectations no one would have anything to complain about. So it's development including developing young major league stars into consistent players, developing a bullpen, developing starting pitching depth that has been terrible. I totally realize Vlad/Kirk could turn it around tomorrow, but is anyone on the Orioles obese at all? I wonder how many dieticians are assigned to each player??

Again, maybe I'm totally mis-understanding the debate, but hypothetically in 80 road games in neutral parks there are 4 runs a game scored on average and some guy contributes like 100 runs offensively Then in Coors games there are 6 runs a game scored, and the same guy only contributes 50 runs, those 50 runs are still down graded to 34 or something, so the road numbers are the same, and the home numbers are downgraded no matter how good or bad because each run is less of a percentage-wise contribution.

Sorry if I am reading your comment wrong, but if a guy hit's .370 with 30 homers and 100 RBIS in road games and .200 with 10 homers in Coors Field home games his numbers are still adjusted down even if he hit better on the road. So it is assumed he hit bad at Coors for reasons unknown (randomness, nervousness, too much home cooking) and hitting .200 with 10 homers at Coors is like hitting .170 with 7 homers under the same circumstances in a normal home park.

The good news is that when you have to replace him you won't need to worry about replacing him in the 'aggregate' or anything, just a Scott Hattenberg by himself would replace Vlad's WAR.

People are acting like they are not already 17 games over .500. They are on pace to win over 100 and they just have to play 1 game over .500 the rest of the way to win 90. There are several things little and big that indicating a great organization. 1. The bullpen - this is the quickest part of a team to build, it may take years to know how their young players will turn out for sure, but we know they can build a bullpen. 2. Everybody in the minor leagues has a .420 on base percentage (not everybody, but you could literally find 8 or 9 .400 plus on base guys in their top 20 prospects), indicating a good old fashioned 'money ball' 2000 Oakland As style minor league development system, get on base!. 3. The park - it's ridiculous, but they designed a freak park that is going to give them a not insignificant advantage over the next decade, stifling opponents right handed bats, while their left handed .420 on base guys get to shoot at the short porch in right. 4. Hitting Covid right - everybody is like '5 losing years in a row'. Maybe they just held back and tanked a couple of more years knowing there were no fans anyway. They are collecting little advantages all over the place and appear to do a lot of things well. They haven't developed an ace starting pitcher yet, and early returns on their 2 really good pitching prospects are disappointing, but otherwise they've got a serviceable starting rotation out of scraps. What happens if they start putting a little money into it?

Would be interesting to hear a tell-all someday... No doubt in my mind KC was cheating at critical times. Not sure Jays were innocent. I remember the man in white stories, where supposedly some guy was giving Bautista signs from the outfield stands. Sounded like a ridiculous joke to me at the time, but looking back where there is smoke there is fire.

In their 8th to 16th ranked prospects they have 4 guys carrying .400 + on base percentages this year, and an 18 year old catcher holding his own in full season ball (Basallo). I don't know a tonne about any of them, but I bet they can get a good pitcher by just telling teams take your favourite 3 guys from our 8th and lower prospects. 16 Cesar Prieto .363 .409 .483 15 ks 15 Judd Fabian .297 .401 .517 13 Hudson Haskin .320 .425 .500 10 Samuel Basallo .288 .336 .44 8 Cobo Mayer .280 .404 .513

In the last couple of days Fangraphs is now projecting the Orioles finish ahead of the Jays. Jays are projected to outplay them the rest of the year but not make up the 5 game lead. And this doesn't take into account that the Orioles are playing Gunnar Henderson at short now, which will lead to them replacing their worst hitter Mateo with Jordan Westburg, one of the minor league homerun leaders. And they'll likely replace their other worst hitter, who is a terrible fit for the park with Cowser, by either putting him at first, or the outfield. Then probably trade Mountcastle for a prospect. Unless you think minor league numbers are meaningless the Orioles are only getting better from here. And they have to prospects to get a good starter with their 8-15 prospects and not touch their A prospects.

Buck Martinez was pretty convinced he was tipping. I wonder if within a few years we will have the Jose Canseco of sign stealing write a tell-all like Juiced. Maybe I am getting fooled by randomness, but the last 10 years don't quite make sense. 1. The 2014/15 Kansas City Royals getting clusters of hits at just the right time (WC 2014, Game 4 ALDS 2015, Game 2 ALCS 2015, and World Series). 2. The 2023 Rays. 3. The 2021 Giants. 4. 2019 Twins and Yankees (300 homers with Stanton and Judge only hitting 30 combined). Remember Brett Gardner getting kicked out of a game in 2019 at Rogers Center banging a bat against the dug-out ceiling. Baseball is really random, so who knows, seems as if electronic sign stealing was a thing for a few years, they tried to stop it with pitch com, but now teams are going nuts with legal pitch prediction via real time analytics.

I guess it happens. Adrian Beltre, Cody Bellinger, George Bell if you want to back to the Jays 80s (went from 47 to 18 homers in 3 years). As a hitter Vlad's statline is looking like a better Adrian Beltre. One monster season surrounded by OKish ones... Beltre had much better defense, Vlad better average and walk rate in the OKish seasons.

How has Vlad gone from light tower power routinely hitting 450 foot shots to a .280 .350 .450 guy who needs to get back on track to 19 homers.... No homers at home? 2 years ago on this date I went to game at Fenway Park, first game after Covid. Great game all of the legacy guys homered. Here is what Vlad did in that 4 game series. Game 1 - Pounded 1 majestic 450 foot shot over green monster, lined some singles and doubles off the monster. Game 2 - I was there. First inning 450 foot shot over monster. Game 3 - This was a blow out 18-2 or something. Hit a 400 foot no doubter shot to right field, like he was left handed. Game 4 - Sox leading 1-0 I think 9th, 450 foot shot over monster to tie it (though Jays blew it in bottom of 9th). Man. Just thinking about 2021. Do you remember last two games of the season? 450 foot shot to left for 47th, then next day 2nd deck to right. Another one of those oppo shots where he hit like a lefty. How does this even make sense? 22 year old. Sets record for homers at that age, routinely hitting 450 foot shots, now on pace for 19 homers and goes weeks without hitting one, months without hitting one at home?

FYI. Even Buck Martinez had some interesting comments as the Twins hammered Gausman. a) This wasn't normal. They were taking too many splitters, and having too many aggressive swings. In this day and age the good organizations have entire teams dedicated to both searching for tells on their own pitchers, and searching for tells on opponents. c) These teams are crunching all the time, between games, and during games. Buck was talking like he has inside info on how the Yankees system works, and it sounds like the team is crunching video in game and relaying what they find to the dugout. I think this explains a lot. Tampa Bay is obviously 200% ahead of everyone in this, and their hitting performance is explained by in game and out of game advanced pitch type and location anticipation system. All the other teams are doing the same thing, just not as good at it as TBR.

Gunnar Henderson warming up and has been looking great. Baltimore is not a "great" organization because the "got" 5 top 5 picks in a row, they are great because they (so far) have nailed every pick along with some lower ones. Colton Cowser .480 on base percentage, Jackson Holliday .450 on base percentage, Jordan Westburg .978 OPS and 17 homers. Blue Jays Message Board - Orelvis Martinez is something else, legend power, 16 homers, average now at .220, what a guy. You f***ing idiots. Westburg has more homers than Orelvis and is hitting .300. Take all your f***ing stupid little Blue Jays prospects that are hitting for power like Orelvis and Scheider, take your stupid powerless *******s that are hitting .300 with a .420 on base but only 2 homers like Roden and Horwitzs, now make them all hit for both power, on base and average and you have a Baltimore Orioles prospect. Henderson, Rutschman, Holliday, Cowser, Westburg, Kjerstad, and Joey Ortiz, all in the same lineup for 700k a year for the next 3. Or maybe they make some trades, they have no long term commitments. And as it stands, with only 2 of 7 great prospects up they are 5 games ahead of the Jays. What exactly are people not understanding about the Orioles being a great organization? "but, but, they lost 5 years in a row, not great" They lost 3 years in a row, and rode Covid like aces, adding 2 additional meaningless losing seasons because there were no and limited fans.

If you say that the relievers should have held on to 2 run leads in every game and every time a guy got to 3rd with none he should have scored I believe the Jays win 2/3 if all those things happen. Should have math Jays always win 100% of the games that they blew and still win 100% of the games they miraculously won a.k.a. the other team blew.

Nice to see Cavan get a big hit going into the freak park. If Belt and Kiermair are healthy could be a good opportunity to give Vlad a day off and get 4 lefties in to try for 350 foot homers.... as opposed to the 425 foot homers needed for left field. Joke would be on Orioles who moved the fences back to stop Judge and Guerrero, little did they know in 2023, Varsho and Biggio would have a higher homer per PA rate than Vlad.

His numbers are exactly the same as his minor league numbers. He was like a .250 .410 .480 minor league hitter. Some of it was at low levels, but still he was good in aa and aaa. It's a good outcome, but not an unusual one for a hitter to perform in the majors at the same rate they did in the minors.

Wow. They have so many Anthony Bass threads and this board has none, though when I came back from lunch this thread was like 5 new pages of Anthony Bass in 20 minutes and I was like what happened? Did they get jealous of all the Anthony Bass threads on Reddit and felt the need to keep up? Then I realized he got DFA'd over lunch.

They have 2 Anthony bass theads in the first 10 threads. lol.

Blue Jays Message Board - If Arraez hypothetically hit's .420 with 7 homers and 7.6 WAR and Acuna hits .310 with 61 stolen bases and 7.8 WAR who should be MVP? Acuna no question! Blue Jays Message Board - If Kirk after 1/3 of a season has 0.7 WAR and Moreno 0.4 WAR who is doing better? Moreno no question! Board is biased towards 'Athletes'. To make board happy Jays should search for modern version of Deon Sanders or Bo Jackson, someone athletic enough to play football too.

According to fangraphs they are very similar this year with Kirk rated as a slightly better baserunner... both power less. Kirk with way better k/bb. Kirk slightly better over all because he gets on base more. What was it with Kirks slide last night? Feet first right into the catcher? Does he not have any fancy slides in his repertoire? Was he even wearing a glove? If he is going in feet first would some oversized shoes help?