Olerud363

Congratulations to the Baltimore Orioles In 2016 the Jays and Orioles both won 89 games, then both went on a run of losing seasons. The Blue Jays rebounded quicker as the Orioles went in to a 5 year tailspin as opposed to the Jays 3 year tailspin. The Cavaet is the last two years of the Orioles tailspin were during Pandemic seasons with limited fans. Now the Orioles have reached first place. Playoff games won - Bo/Vlad Jays and Elias Orioles tied with 0 Days in first (second half) - Bo/Vlad Jays 0, Elias Orioles 1 Congratulations again to the Orioles for reaching first place (after May 1st) something the Bo/Vlad Jays have never done.

On one hand you think watching Soto for a series would get that message through to Vlad. On the other hand maybe watching Bo everyday, doing what he does and hitting .320 give the opposite message. Makes me miss the Donaldson, Bautista, EE, middle of the order. Pure professionals.

I have a lot of Boston Red Sox friends and despite the fact they are still behind us by a couple games, they are having a way, way, more fun and enjoyable season then we are. They love Yoshida, Duran, Verdugo, Devers, Connor Wong, Bello. It brings them so much happiness to see players exceeding expectations. So much Joy watching a hitter like Yoshida. Compared to watching Varsho, Vlad, Kirk,

Article we will see next year. Vladimir Guerrero Jr and Yoshida on historic run Boston Red Sox fans are having one of the most joyful years in baseball history as Vladimir Guerrero JR and Yoshida battle for hitting supremecy. Both hardly ever strike-out and are leading Boston's historic offense to a 110 win season. Guerrero released by Toronto had something to prove. Toronto's number crunchers thought Guerrero was a replacement player after a .255 18 95 season, with -1.1 WAR. However Boston's hitting coach's and team mate Yoshida fixed his swing and the young Guerrero is back on a hall of fame track. Boston recently signed Guerrero to a 12 year 200 million dollar extension, cheap for a triple crown contender, but Guerrero was happy to make a long term commitment. They showed faith in me and now in Boston we have a team that can win multiple world series. The fans are the best in the world and the Joy here is like no other place.

He's headed for a negative WAR year, and release Bellinger got released after a 1.5 WAR year, Vladdy has a great chance of being negative WAR this year. Admittedly Bellinger did have a negative WAR year 2 years before his release. Special press release announcement. Vladimir Guerrero has failed. We have had to give him his release has he was due 25 million a the arbitration which is to much for -0.5 WAR player. Special announcement: Boston Red Sox sign Vladimir Guerrero JR. 2 years 28 million. Vladdy hits .344 52 154 for Sox for 14 million (numbers which make sense given his age 18,19 and 22 seasons. The release is going to be a hard decision. Risk 25 million for 0 WAR guy? Or risk rival signing a super star cheap. Bellinger release didn't really work out but not complete emparassment (no triple crown or anything).

The first 5 years I followed baseball the Jays routinely called up guys like Schneider, I remember Kelly Gruber, Mark Whiten, Glen-Allen Hill, Junior Felix, Jeff Kent, Ed Sprague, probably others I'm forgetting. Willie Canate? (just saw him hitting a homerun in 93 in some throwback twitter account). Like Sprague was 24 years old and less impressive than Scheider, and found himself hitting one of the top 3 homeruns in Blue Jays history. No need to trade for some 'vetran' prescence. Even in 2015 Goins, Pillar, Devon Travis, Pompey, were all given shots with Goings and Pillar becoming starters.... I mean good teams should be giving a guy like Schneider a shot to help.

Not sure there is anything in the data except that on average players hit 40 points of batting average worse when they get to the majors... like Ryan Noda got worse, and Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio got worse, and Tellez got worse, and Vlad got worse all with the same pattern (lost on average 40 points of batting average). That's the pattern. Like not sure I believe there is 5 dimensional chess 'getting rid of players just in time' except players lose 40 points in batting average, so a .265 minor league hitter has to be treated as a .225 major league hitter. They all get worse the same except for Lane Thomas. He stayed the same. A few hit .190 for a few weeks (as anyhone can do) and don't get a chance to regress to their true talent .230. Ryan Noda - .264 .407 .486, | .230 .370 .420 Lane Thomas - .254 .330 .430 | .250 .330 .437 Jonathan Davis .250 .360 .400 | .199 .290 .300 Rowdy .273 .343 .450 | .230 .300 .450 Biggio .252 .373 .418 | .225 .338 .390 Vlad .330 .414 .531 | .280 .350 .490 Bo .321 .380 .515 | .301 .342 .492

Not really comparable. Smith was terrible as a minor leaguer for long stretches and had a historically bad year in New Hampshire. Schneider just didn't play much for some reason until last year. Schneider walks way more than Smith did. More comparable to Biggio than Smith, so question is whether he can grab a job with that skill set. Like Biggio he probably can't afford to get injured or slump much... With some luck could be Biggio 2019 for a few years, could also be Biggio 2021-23 (in which case he probably doesn't get a few years).

Vladimir Guerrero JR (Sunday against Arizona) AB 1 109 mph ground ball to short (double play) AB 2 98 mph fly ball to center fielder (389 feet) out - sac fly AB 3 104 mph ground ball up the middle (out to 2b standing on second) AB 4 110 mph 22 degrees 410 feet (.02 inches from homer) double essentially 1/4 some other day - like basically the same except 110 mph 19 degree liner to right center (single) (against Atlanta) I'm probably exagerating a bit, like he may not have hit into a double play Sunday, but not embellishing by much at all Cito Gaston - pull dat ball John Olerud - I won a batting title Vladimir Guerrero - I won a homerun title Cito Gaston - Did you do it twice? Pull dat ball.

Your still forgetting there was another guy in the trade. 21 year old middle infielder with Teoscar Hernandez/Jose Bautista level milb "performance". What I mean is some guys who are where Alex De Jesus is, become very good major league players, just as some guys who are where Fasso is become good players. What are the chances that Fasso or De Jesus become good? I don't know, but not 0 for either. Tango brought up a very good point, in that most arguments have two people answering different questions, you are asking the question was Fasso for Mitch White a good trade? The real question is was Fasso for Mitch White and Alex De Jesus a good trade?

Protection won't help Vladdy... maybe you could make that argument if he was walking a tonne that with someone to protect him they'd walk him less, however they have a pitching pattern that works for him and they'll keep it no matter what. He hardly walks... and they aren't scared of him anyway. They know how to get him out and they will keep doing that no matter what. Chapman is better than Vladdy right now anyway. Fine as your second big bat. If they thought 'protection' was important they could hit him 2nd then Bo, Belt, Chapman.

The biggest problem with Vlad's D measurement this year isn't the positional adjustment, if he keeps going at this rate he is going to end up 10 runs below the adjustment. Spanky pointed out the adjustment is -12.5. So a really good first basemen, 10 above average will end up still negative by a bit... problem is Vlad is going to end up -22 or something... Fangraphs is rating him way below average for firstbase independent of the adjustment. Why I wonder...

First add up all the offensive stuff that is easy to calculate and come up with a 'runs' contributed value. Then if you wanted to do a quick and dirty comparison just use some kind of adjustment for each position. Like maybe give dh -20, 1b -15, lf/rf -5, 3b/2b +5, and cf/ss/c +15. This will give you a pretty good approximation of value. Of course it won't tell you who is the best 1b, cf, etc. but it won't be too bad an estimate because a first basemen is there because he can't make the same contributions on defense a centerfielder or short stop can.

If you want to compare him to Marcus Semien or someone sure, but to evaluate his trends you only need to compare him to other first basemen including himself. He went from 6 WAR to 1 WAR pace using the exact same evaluation system. He has fallen below Ryan Noda and other medicore first basemen who are ranked using the same defensive adjustment. So even without comparing him to other positions you can easily see he's having a bad season with respect to other first basemen.

Just looked at Whitt Merrifield's milb stats. They are pretty mediocre. Worse than Horwitz. He had only one stretch where he looked like a line drive hitting doubles machine... He was a .270 minor league hitter, but has been a .280 major league hitter. Whitt Merrifield is the rare bird though that hit better in the majors (it happens). Howritz and Roden could still become a Whitt Merrifield level hitter even if they hit a bit worse in the majors. Merrifield level is probably not good enough for Horwitz as a first basemen who apparently can't play left field. Roden is a bit better than Horwitz at Vancouver (just a bit), and could still improve more than Horwitz going forward (mostly by hitting 15 homeruns some year and keeping the average and walks). Also Roden may be able to carry Merrifield level hitting if he is decent in the outfield. No idea if he is.

That's why I mentioned average and k/bb are also important in projecting power. Roden may not have much physical development left, but he may change his approach a bit as he gets older. Matt Carpenter is a good example. He actually started a year later than even Roden and had similar numbers his age 23 and 24 seasons. 3 times as many doubles as homers, good k/bb. This trend continued through his first 3 seasons in the majors, and he was fourth in MVP voting with 53 doubles and 11 homers in 2013. Then he changed a bit, his k-rate went way up and he peaked at 36 homers. Part of his increase in k-rate and homers were due to changing trends overall in MLB between 2013 and 2019. However since Roden is at a very low k-rate he has room to increase his power by swinging harder, taking more pitches, and letting his k-rate go up. The example I gave, of a guy with .140 isolated power and even homers and doubles, with a high k-rate doesn't have room to increase power by changing approach in a 'swing harder, more ks' way.

It's not flawed so much that 'the flaw' if there is one, is the major reason that 1b/DH WAR is changing year to year. 2023 Vlad compared to himself in 2021 or to Freddie Freeman has much lower WAR mostly because his hitting is much closer to replacement, all 1b, Vlad 2021, Vlad 2023, Freeman are getting the same adjustment, so Vlad obviously hasn't lost 85% of his WAR because of the adjustment, he has lost most of the WAR because of bad hitting (relative to his minor league self, his 2021 self, and the elite first basemen), and some WAR because of his defense falling apart (not the adjustment, but the other things are coming in low for some reason).

You think David Ortiz was a good defensive player or baserunner? His WAR makes perfect sense. He got 51 WAR career, all positive WAR from offense, and got dinged for defense and baserunning. His 2007-2009 numbers are actually kind of close to what is happening to Vlad now. In 2007 he was one of the best hitters in the league and had 6 WAR, then he got fell apart the next year, then he fell apart even more and was almost replacement, because his hitting fell apart for a year. How do David Ortiz' WAR numbers not make sense? (again I do agree that Vlad's ridiculously bad defensive numbers this year are probably not accurate... but that's not the big problem, big problem, like Ortiz 2007-2009 is the offense has cratered, and WAR has followed as it should).

I agree with you that the defense part is flaky sometimes... it's showing Vlad as very poor, especially this year, so poor it does seem wrong. That being said almost all first basemen, even good ones, should have negative defensive value (just as not as negative as Vlad this year). However the defense isn't the only reason he's near replacement nor the reason most people are disappointed. Hi Offense has fallen a bunch to, to the point he is near 'average' for a first basemen.

And that's why 99% of fans are so mystified and disapointed that a guy with Vlad's historic minor league numbers, historic 2021 numbers, and raw power show at the homerun contest can somehow put up a .270 .340 .440 line that is only a bit better than replacement. Massively disappointing line considering his raw gifts. Hopefully better numbers in the second half.

Not sure you understand how WAR works. Wins over replacement. When Vlad hit .310 .400 .600 he was much better than replacement so he added about 6 wins to the team as compared to a random guy from triple a. Random first basemen from triple a might hit .250 .310 .420 or something. Like Ryan Noda, but Ryan Noda is doing a bit better than that. If Vlad hits .275 .340 .440 he is much closer to a random guy from triple a thus doesn't accumulate much WAR. .275 .340 .440 is close to .250 .310 .420... .310 .400 .600 is way better than .250 .310 .420. WAR makes perfect sense with some wiggle room for im-perfect defensive metrics.

Baseball fans. Players like Matt Carpenter, Mark Grace, Brandon Nimmo are different than players like Jesus Sanchez. Line drive power. Used to be a thing to describe a guy who could hit .300 with 45 doubles and 14 homers. Kieth Hernandez, John Olerud obviously. Some guys really have no power. Like Kasevich, at one point he was hitting .300 with a .350 slugging, and it is hard to see that working long term. Mike Trout, Vlad, only had like .150 isolated slugging at a ball, but hit .320 with good k/bb. Guys who are hititng .300 with a .450 slugging and lots of doubles, indicates they are hitting hard line drives, and more likely to develop further. Guy hitting .240 with bad k/bb and even number of homers and doubles with same isolated slugging probably won't have as much development ahead. Line drives.

Imagine another guy that like Roden has 256 at bats, but he has 9 doubles, 0 triples, 9 homers, 20 walks, 70 ks He hits .240 He also has a .140 isolated slugging. Is it the same kind of 'line drive' power as .320 with 22 doubles, 1 triple, 4 homers and a 41 to 31 bb/k ?? What does batting average or k/bb have to do with line drive power ? Some of the hard line drives are singles, a guy with 40 to 30 bb to k may not even be trying to swing for the fences, just happy to hit some line drives.

Also people on the board have trouble expressing minor league players level of 'power' because they like to use two power categories, 'power' and 'no power', which puts Roden (.450 slugging) and Kasevich (.333 slugging) in the same category power - Orelvis Martinez No power - Jon Kasevich, Alan Roden If you move to a three power system, power, line drive power, and no power, it is probably like this power - Orelvis Martinez line drive power - Alan Roden no power - Jon Kasevich

Got to think Alan Roden gets moved up soon. .440 on base percentage at A+ with some line drive power (22 doubles 4 homers in 66 games). Lots of walks with a low k rate. I know people will complain about the power, but Nimmo didn't have much power in the minors either. Numbers compare favorably to Brandon Nimmos in high A, though he is 2 years older. Should move him up and find out what they have