Olerud363

My wife is annoyed with me and is trying to get me medication and is pretty mad I get so upset about these games. I think that is part of the reason she made the appointment to get me boosted tomorrow during the ill-fated Gausman start (100% true story), thinks the myocarditis will get me knock me down for a few days, or maybe she is trying to kill me. Whatever the case at least I don't have to watch tomorrow. Instead I will be getting boosted to help my wonderful community. So excited.

There was only 1 wild card spot in the J.P. Ricciardi era. Those seasons would have looked a lot like these with the team in it to the last weekend if there were 3 spots. This year would have been over in July if there was only 1 spot. It's a miserable 4 years because they absolutely can't win any big series late in the year and if they complete this choke job will have blown two 98.5% win scenarios (WCG2 2022, Monday Sep 25 playoff probs).

It's basically a 85% chance or something now depending on how you model the game probabilities, down from 98.6 supposedly. It's actually 0. Compare Bo and Vlad to J.P. Crawford and Julio Rodriquez. Bo and Vlad are destined to win 0 playoff games. Crawford and Rodriquez a lot. Sometimes fate and fate. 2022 - Toronto blows a 98.5% chance of winning an 8-1 game they were leading in the 6th. Julio Rodriquez and J.P. Crawford celebrate. 2023 - Toronto blow a 98.5 % chance of making the playoffs as of Monday... Julio Rodriquez and J.P. Crawford celebrate. It's done. It's over. You are at the Jarret Center not believing what has happened. Tomorrow the rural counties from Pennsylvania come in. Congratulations to the Baltimore Orioles for winning the division and 100 games. And congratulations to the Texas Rangers, Houston Astros and especially the Seattle Mariners for making the playoffs. Seattle. A tough, gritty, clutch team built the right way. Don't hit for the highest average but 2 years in a row beat the Blue Jays out. It's over, it's done. Bo and Vlad did not win a playoff game.

Good news is the jays will draw 3 million. Will the 3 millionth fan be allowed to fire Shapiro? I think if the Seattle is leading by 6-1 or something they should invite the fans to stay and announce the 3 millionth fan will fire Shapiro after Jays get eliminated. Then Paul Beeston will be named interim president and give a speech called "Where to from here?". Beeston's speech should be similar to Wilner's press release after Seattle clinch. Talk about 1987, 1990, how we've been here before, the best is yet to come. Don't lose faith. See you in March. It won't happen but it would be fantastic to see the 3 millionth fan fire Shapiro. Or maybe homeplate lady can fire him, then Beeston will give her back her seats. Then in Beeston's speech he can mention what Pat Gilick and AA did and promise a bright future based on those men's principles.

Well. I am getting my yearly booster tomorrow and was insulted. It made me feel bad because I am helping my community by getting boosted and now everyone on Blue Jays Message board is implying that you are not a real man if you get boosted. I am a real man. The other day I went to parliament to cheer on Justin as he honored 100 year old Ukrainian war heroes. I will be the first to sign up when Justin start WWIII against India. You will see as we fight together against Modi that even the boosted have courage. And just a reminder that there is no politics allowed on this message baord, and I am only bringing up getting boosted and then fighting under my flag, against Modi, for Justin, to show everyone that even the boosted have courage and are real men. If the wrong message get's spread on this illustrious message board, many on the board will not get boosted and we risk a severe late fall Covid outbreak that will be very frightening.

lol rare case where the righties are passively aggressively bringing up some politics. I'm actually scheduled for my yearly booster right in the middle of tomorrow's ill fated Gausman start. Where is Jim Canuck? Where are the mods? Don't get me wrong, I hate Trudeau with the best of you, and I think that Vaccine is bad as hell for you, mRNA is not a good thing. Problem is the Covid19 also works the same way, so if you get full blown days on end Covid it messes with you. Probably messed up a few on the board. Mods and JimCanuck please make sure we have accurate info here because if I skip my booster appointment tomorrow, have to watch the terrible Gausman start, than get the Covid and get serious long Covid damage I will be suing the board because it let posters spread vaccine disinfo like they were RFK.

That gives Mariners 89, Houston 89, Texas 89. In that scenario Toronto needs to win 2. As otherwise it is the dreaded 4 way tie that is destined to happen anyway. I heard they already drafted Mike Wilner a statement to make after the four way tie. "Jays seasons ends for the second time in 3 years watching an out of town game on the jumbotron. J.P. Crawford ties it with the Mariners down to their last strike and Julio Rodriguez walks it off in dramatic fashion. Seattle is going wild and congratulations to the Mariners. And to all you negative Nancies I now concede the season is indeed over. But you know what? It wasn't over in May. It wasn't over in June. It wasn't over after getting swept by Texas. For the fourth year in a row every single inning the Jays played was meaningful. Get real people. They tied for the last playoff spot and they had to go to the second round of tie breakers. You literally cannot get closer than that. I'm old enough to remember 1987 and 1990 and what happened next. The Jays have averaged 90 wins the last three years. That's a damn good team. The sad thing is about contending, is just that, it's contending, no guarantee of anything. There will be some changes for next year, but not as many as some expect. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 25 next year. Bo Bichette 26, they are headed into their best years. Kirk and Varsho are damn good players, and both way better hitters than they showed this year. Alec Manoah has some things to work through but is 26 and will get every chance to sort himself out. There is zero doubt in my mind they are a 90 win team again next year and with just a bit better luck will be playing deep into October. It was a great year, a fun year, and I'm already looking forward to another. See you in March" MW

Unfortunately every thing is going the anti-Blue Jay in the Mariners games. The last 4 nights have been worst case on the Out of Town Scoreboard. If Seattle won another game Jays magic number would 1, if Houston or Texas won another game Jays magic number would be one. After last nights thrilling victory with Brandon Belt rocking it like a left handed Jose Bautista even the unhinged and cynical Olerud363 was happy and stayed up way past his bed time watching Seattle and the Rangers. Even seeing a happy-healthy Julio Rodriquez hit a homerun and make some nice catches didn't break old Olerud363's spirits. It was like being a Hilary voter in the Jarret Center that night in early November 2016 and seeing a dump of votes come in from Madison. Have you ever been to Madison? They love Hillary there. Get the phone out, check the Huff Post needle. Awesome it's back to 95% for Hillary. It 8:52 on a November Tuesday Night. This party is going to rock. Break the glass ceiling. Then J.P. Crawford did his thing. Had a little deja vue to the ALWC. Sometimes it's fate. Julio Rodriquez is happy and healthy. J.P. Crawford is clutch. Seattle is in a good place. All four teams will 89 games. You guys have already looked up the tie breakers. You know deep down what's happening, just like the Hillary voters did.

The Great teams of the AL East are well represented on Baseball America's minor league all star team. This illustrious all star team is not just for one level, but for all levels and players on this list are deemed by baseball America to have such potential that they will likely give their fan bases joy and happiness for a generation to come. AL East fans rejoice. So many great young players to enjoy. The Baltimore Orioles, already a 100 win team, put Samuel Basillo, perhaps the greatest 18 year old hitter ever, Jackson Holliday, and Heston Kjerstad on the list. The Tampa Bay Rays, already a 98 win team, put two, Junior Caminero and Jonathan Aranda on the list. And the Boston Red Sox, once judged to have the worst farm system in baseball history, put Roman Anthony on the list. So much joy to come for the great AL East teams. NY Yankees did not put a player on the list, but now have gone 31 years since their last losing season and likely will clinch their 32nd straight winning season tonight. The Yankees never give up and play hard as hell, even if eliminated from the playoffs, it takes this kind of work to get 32 years straight of winning ball. The AL East. Best division in baseball with four of the best organizations in baseball. Congratulations AL East fans. So much happiness to enjoy.

This team is seriously f***ed up from the highest levels down. The crazy thing is that Schneider has more at bats in September than August. He got like 50 PAs in his hot August. So of course this created a cycle of pressure. Being Barry Bonds wasn't good enough, so every game it was like he needed 3/4 with 2 homers to play the next day, so of course predictably this led to a slump. If a guy is this hot, with great minor league stats, play him every f***ing day. Schneider should have been in their every god-damn day since August 4th. Shapiro needs to go. Needs to resign Sunday at 6:00 pm, or be fired as the Mariner game ends badly for us, on the big screen (2/3 years season ends watching out of town scoreboard), a representative from Rogers needs to come on after Seattle clinches, and announce Shapiro is fired, and apologize to Davis Schneider and AA for the fiasco this franchise has become.

This was one case where JS, Shapiro, the scoreboard operator, the Mayor of Toronto, and Justin Trudeau should have united to go ballistic.l Multiple coaches should have been thrown out until Springer was forced to manage. The scoreboard operator should have replayed the pitch over and over constantly the rest of the game, someone should have made an announcement for the fans to boo the umpire. Rogers communications should have released a press statement telling the commissioner to resign because he can't control the umpires. Rogers should have gladly taken fines of several hundred thousand dollars or even a couple of million and clearly said, if umpires pull this s***, we are fighting back. Maybe not that far, but they should have such a fuss that in game it would be dramatic, cause a delay, and maybe get the bats fired up a bit, and post game bring tremendous attention to the poor umpiring and a potentially season and franchise changing call. However the culture of this franchise is so messed up they don't know when to kick up a fuss... like if not then when? Depending what happens over the next 4 days could be one of the worst and most significant calls in franchise history. And JS and the rest are just chill. GET KICKED OUT OF THE f***ING GAME... f***ING BOONE KNOWS HOW IT'S DONE. GETS KICKED OUT REGULARLY AND IS +20 in UMPIRE GIFT RUNS. This was one case where JS, Shapiro, the scoreboard operator, the Mayor of Toronto, and Justin Trudeau should have united to go ballistic.l

How is saying "something is off" any different then any of the stuff I've been saying, except more concise with less ranting? By definition if "something is off" each game probability is going to be off depending what that something is. If it is an inability to perform against tough pitching under pressure (if such a thing exists) the individual probabilities for each game will be off a bit, and the combined probability will be off. Add to that correlation between games and the so-called 98% chance of making the playoffs may have been only 90%. And now with a worst case scenario the last 3 days the "official" probability is down to around 90%, but less than that if "something is off". This is like election night 2016. We are at 7:30 and the results from Florida have come in. The Huff post ticker has gone from 98% Hillary to 90%. The Hillary fans are now realizing "something was off". Hillary will still win but let's acknowledge her campaign was flawed. Tonight at 9:45 the results from the midwest start to come in. Then we will start to see some people around here acknowledging reality. Some will go to bed still confident. Others (like the Hillary voters) will stay up to 2:00 in the morning waiting for the results from Michigan (Seattle) to be final. 2016 election all over again, except over multiple nights.

f*** Belt. It's not the fans, it is that this team has been terrible in big series at home. This is the third year in a row they played the Yankees the mid-week second last home series. Lost all 3 series. And don't blame King and Cole. The 2021 Yankees, not a super-great team hammered the Cy Young award winner, Robbie Ray. What is the most significant game this iteration of the team has won at Roger Center? What big moment did they provide the fans? They've essentially wilted in every big series at Rogers center late in the season. Even last year they got beat by the Yankees at home and clinched their wild card because Orioles weren't quite ready and lost the next day. It's like the 1985-1990 team that always lost in the big moments and had to be reconfigured before taking the next step.

It depends what the definition of mediocre. Is a high 80s win team mediocre?

If every game was independent the Blue Jays have apparently have 95% chance of making the playoffs down 3%. If the games are correlated it's less than that. For example if the Jays can't handle pressure, or the bullpen get's over-used or injuries happen, or Texas clinches early, it's less. Maybe 85%. Would you play Russian Roulette with 15% odds of losing? Would you bet 100% of your net worth with 15% chance of losing? So f*** off with the 'don't understand probability s***. It's like when Trump won in 2016 and the Huffington Post had him at 98% of losing. Their math was right actually if results in every state were independent, but the issue was several mid western states were correlated. So just to be clear about what I am saying, I am not saying the Jays are down to 50% odds of making the playoffs... I am saying the the 98% odds (now 95%) are wrong and it's more like 85 because every game isn't independent. If Seattle wins 3 in a row against a drunk Texas team, those games are correlated, if Jays wilt under pressure because the mental high performance team sucks those games are correlated. Now you might ask aren't good things correlated too? Yeah. If the Jays had a 10% chance of making the playoffs it might be actually 15% or 20% because the good things could be correlated. What you will probably see (as you do in policitcs) is if the Jays collapse betting markets will start leading the fangraphs odds as the betters realize what might happen.

You are a miserable *******. Everybody was acting like they had a 100% chance of winning. I f***ing totally agree the chances are still good IF Texas and Arizona don't clinch early. But you *******s who thought it was 98% are f***ing insane. It's down to 90% after tonight. Facing Cole tomorrow, and the possibility that Seattle and Houston will play their last 2 or 3 games against a team already clinched. So maybe it's actually 75% now, if you factor everything in. At the very least now it is going to be a stress fest. Why do you care so much about what other people post? If people want to vent, let them vent. Team was genuinely awful and lifeless, with the chance that Romero is injured. And what hope do we have against Cole after tonight's s*** show. This is a team that has never won when it counts, and maybe can't handle pressure. Anybody who experienced 87, knows how quickly things can go to hell. If you think people are being irrational then say so. But jesus, just let people vent if they want to as well. It's a message board and no one is attacking you personally or anything.

You are 100% right. Jays blew so called 98% chance of winning against Seattle and blew a 98% of making the playoffs. But it wasn't 98% chance because the teams Houston and Seattle are playing will have clinched and be drunk as f***. So now it is down to winning 3/5, one against Cole, so basically 3/4.

We disagree on the dynamics but the 98% chance of making the playoffs was ********. The games are correlated. Tomorrow they'll lose and then it is f***ing over. As if they win 3/4 against Rays and Yankees. f*** it's going to brutal losing to Rays 5-4 while Seattle and Houston beat up on teams that clinched. Oh well f***ing ******** season, appropriate end. Congratulations to the Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros and Texas for making the playoffs. Congratulations to Julio Rodriguez for being everything a super star should be. And congratulations to the Baltimore Orioles for the first of 10 consecutive 100 win seasons. Congratulations to all the fans of the great baseball franchises and the joy those teams bring you. Bo and Vlad. 0 playoff wins. f***. Everyone knows that's the story. Allready written.

At age 24 Delgado and Guerrero are the same! .270 25 93 guys with 1 WAR or so and some power but dissapointing power compared to their peers and man strength. Crazy how they took completely different paths to get to that stage at age 24. Delgado couldn't stick a couple of times and spent some time destroying the international league, his age 24 season was his first full season, first season with more than 150 at bats. Guerrero played every day since he was 20 and is in his 5th full season, including an MVP like season. But at 24 they are the same. Hopefully Guerrero just follows Delgado until age 36, then his last 4 years are also better and he just puts massive counting stats.

I would have thought at this point in the season they won't be really going to Florida and just stay in shape in Toronto or wherever the team is. I mean if Belt's back actus up again in 2 days, or a pitcher goes down, you want the replacement close by, not in Florida.

I assume like Manoah they won't really report to the minors and just hang out in Toronto... like they are not really going to the Florida Complex League. Unlike Manoah this will be team approved and they will be waiting around in case they are needed. Why the Florida Complex League though? When all leagues are out of business do you still have to option players to a 'league' even if they aren't going there and the league isn't even playing? Or is the Florida Complex League still playing? Or still working out maybe?

I've been to lots of ballparks every one was great except for Olympic Stadium in Montreal. I even enjoyed Joe Robbie and the Oakland Stadium, probably because attendance at those two were 2000 people and it was easy to get amazing seats right behind home plate. So even a dump will seem amazing like 20 feet from the catcher. The only Stadium I can honestly say I thought was terrible was Olympic Stadium, partly because it was obviously, but mostly because the 2 times I've been there (2003 Expos home opener, 2016 Jays exhibition) the god-damn place was packed and I was like 700 feet from homeplate and couldn't see anything. I bet I would have loved it on a regular day with 2000 people and getting to sit 20 feet from the catcher. Exhibition statdium was great because it was awesome to see Fred McGriff hit one against the white sox in 88 into the god-damn end zone... again great seats. All these terrible parks are fine with good seats. I've been to old Yankee Stadium and new Yankee Stadium and disagree the new one feels weird. It feels like the old one but in the future... thought they did a good job of replicating it.

I just report the truth. If you don't like it complain to reality. I don't think I've ever posted one thing that is insane. Just things that are real and uncomfortable for corporate bros. Like I posted long diatrobes about Shapiro kicking home plate lady out of her seats and what that says about Shapiro as a human being. The corporate bros don't like those type of posts, because they honestly feel bad that home plate lady is getting the boot... but they also can't acknowledge it, as they don't get their corporate bro goodies if they acknowledge reality in front of people like Shapiro. Me: Poor home plate lady is getting the boot by that ******* Shapiro (but longer and angrier) Corporate Bros: NVIDIA stock is still doing good but is only the beginning of it's run, and that Olerud sure is insane. Me: What? NVIDIA stock is crazy, someday this s*** will end. And I was talking about poor home plate lady getting the boot by Shapiro. Home Plate lady. Don't you feel bad about that? Corporate Bros: That Olerud sure is crazy. Now let's get you set up with some tech investments for 2024. The CBs don't even like Shapiro, just a learned behavior that they get lots of money if they ignore the bad things Shapiros do.

The 2014/15 Royals were insane. Off the top of my head 2014 - super improbable comeback against As in wild card game, make it to 9th inning of game 7 of World Series with tying run at 3rd with a truly mediocre team. 2015 - Down 6-1 in 8th against Astros about to be eliminated, but rally improbably (some luck but a lot of hard hit balls). 2015 - Estrado unhittable down the stretch but Royals get to him in game 1 2015 - Price leading 3-0 in 7th Royals string together a bunch of hit at exactly the right time (admittedly some luck with the pop-up, but isn't part of the story that someone from the Royals dug-out called "I got it") 2015 - I didn't watch the World Series closely but seem to remember several improbable rallies against the Mets with a bunch of hits at "just the right time". I don't know. Maybe I am hallucinating cheating, but Royals existed in the middle of the cheating era, and if a mediocre team was going to only use a cheating system sparingly, only at critical moments, this is probably what it would look like.

I don't think that is true. I started vaguely following in 85 and saw under-dogs win all the time. 85 Royals, 87 Twins, 90 Reds, 2000 Yankees, 2003 Marlins, 2006 Cardinals, 2014 Giants, That's 7 underdogs in 40 years. If it was random and 8 teams made the playoffs, you'd only expect 1/8 underdogs to win by chance anyway, so 'underdogs rarely win' is true, but only because every type of team rarely wins. Of course the number of teams making the playoffs has changed every decade or 2 since 85, and I'm just eye-balling sub 90 win teams who weren't that highly regarded (Reds were 90 on the dot I believe but huge under-dogs against As). And then the super-teams that didn't make it all the way. 1990 As, 1993 Braves, 1995 Indians, 2001 Mariners, many Dodger teams