Olerud363
-
Posts
6,035 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Toronto Blue Jays Videos
2025 Toronto Blue Jays Top Prospects Ranking
Toronto Blue Jays Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
Guides & Resources
2025 Toronto Blue Jays Draft Pick Tracker
News
Forums
Blogs
Events
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by Olerud363
-
Hey JSFIP I am much happier today. Keep posting. I will give you a thanks every time things look brighter... So beyond some slight unmedicated bipolar disorder I do think last nights game (like the opener) was more then just a game. The opener basically was everything I am against. Older, injury prone guys getting injured, an old slop baller getting hammerred. Last nights game was everything I am for. Young starter, pulled early and able to leave on a good note. Multi-inning longish relief outing by youngish reliever. Hell we had two guys far away from age 30 pitch 7 innings of shut out. So I will give my prediction clean slate - 82-80 after day 1 - 80.5-81.5 after day 2 - 81.3-80.7 Will update depending on events... try to keep me grounded and avoid over-reacting to a single loss... instead react to projected season win totoal depending on current win total and roster related events (injuries etc.).
-
Dear Mr. Greenwood I sense a lack of respect and an element of sarcasm in your letter. Please be assurred Mr. Escobar's alleged childish prank had nothing to do with the decision to trade him. Mr. Escobar stole 5 bases in 2012. In return the Blue Jays recieved Jose Reyes (one of my favourite players) and Emilio Bonifacio. Reyes and Bonifacio combined to steal 70 bases in 2012. In addition we recieved two elite starting pitchers and a quality catcher. All this in return for Mr. Escobar and some minor league players. While the decisions have not yet worked as expected we still expect to make the playoffs 2 of the next 3 years. We will always take the opportunity to add athletic entertaining players to the roster. Thanks for your concern Paul Beeston
-
Almost is a key word. In an extreme low run environment it can help a bit though not enough to care either way. Nothing to be fired over. Goins and Thole back to back is an extreme low run environment. The sequence of events that led to Goins and Thole back to back, instead of say D'arnaud and Escobar is the issue. And the men responsible for that sequence are the ones who should be held accountable. Not Gibby. He's good folks people. If you're manager of the local Burger King and the owner hires idiots (maybe his kids friends or something) and the place is a mess do you want to be fired?? No. Of course not. For the love of all that is good, for the future of the human race Gibby cannot be fired. I can't stress this enough.
-
It would be truly shameful if they fire Gibbons... I would love to see Beeston fired alone. That would be fine with me. May 15th if Beeston asks AA to fire Gibbons, someone higher up steps in, fires Beeston. Announces a change in direction. Everyone stays until a new president is hired and the new president makes the cuts if needed.
-
So suit comes up to trainer "we need the boys ready for opening day. I don't want excuses. If things don't go well this year... trust me we're all in the same boat... and I mean we won't even be in the boat before long.. It's your job to get these guys healthy, so get them healthy and on the field Opening day. I know things you don't so please.. please... please... get these guys ready and healthy." Would a suit say something like that to a trainer?? It's idiotic. So I think not quite that blatant. But I suspect they ratchet the pressure up...
-
Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying it's over. But people aren't reacting because it was a loss. Alternative Universe. Yesterdays game goes as follows. Rays 4, Jays 3. Dickey 8 innings, 4 runs, 3 earned, 2 walks, 9 ks, a bit of bad luck. Reyes 3/4, triple, stolen base, hamstring holds up nicely. In that case we all say "come back and get them tomorrow". I'm excited and so is everyone else.
-
I have no clue if it is Rogers Wallet... or Beeston and AAs incompetence. These guys don't understand what an "average is". How many games will Jose Reyes play?? 115 or so. That's what he averages. How many games will Drew play?? About the same. What will Ryan Goins hit. .240 .290 .310 or so... just take his minor league rates and apply a sensible multiplier. How will Mr. X hit at age 33?? Take his age 27 stats and use an aging curve. It was all figured out in the 80s... applied in the 90s... but Jays still operate in the 70s. This is why I have no concern about WAR or the real advanced stats, or the Kratz situation right now. It's all great stuff for an organization that say is operating at a 2008 level in stats analysis... by all means... lets get them into 2014. But when you have an organization that is still using 1976 methods... Get them atleast into the 80s. That's the first step.
-
It is crazy. It is all just probability that you learn in high school... not even college probability. The f***ing accountants and the monopoly whiz should understand this stuff. Drew and Reyes combined will play 200 games. I mean there is always a chance both fall apart and they play 30 games combined... or they are both amazingly healthy and play 320... neither of those scenarios are that likely. Reyes/Izturus/Goins/Diaz infield - expectation 220 of the 320 games will be covered by crap. Reyes/Drew/Izturus/Goins infield - expectation 120 of the 320 games will be covered by crap. Sign Drew -- unless the medicals are horrible we expect 100 more games of non-crap... It's just gambling but you might as well play the odds properly.
-
They are projected to be an 82 win team. For them to win everything has to go right. Reyes to the dl and Dickey slow start. Everything isn't going right. Nobody here thinks they can survive a minor bump. Everything has to go right. Izturus and Goins for April?? Dickey slow start?? All of a sudden it's May 15th, 16-29... 11 games back. Over. But it was actually over when Reyes strained the hamstring and Dickey couldn't find the knuckball in late-late march.
-
I don't care about 1 loss... and other people don't either. It's like sometimes events happen that reduce the probability of sucess more than just 1 loss. It's hard to quantify it but it's more like 2 losses, maybe not that much. Starting from a clean sheet Jays projected to be 83-79 Starting from 0-1 Reyes dl'd and Dickey smoked, Jays proected to by 81-81 And then when you look at the fact that the Jays playoff chances were... 33%... right on the fringe. Maybe they are down to 31% or something now. Just a lousy way to start. Hopefully it turns around. Good to see you haven't become jaded as many of us.
-
Honestly without being overdramatic AA doesn't get another chance and neither does Beeston. If this iteration doesn't work Beeston should get fired, not retired. If he manages to get retired I don't like the message it sends. No matter who you are you should pay for mistakes. The next guy(s) have to do it right, big time culture change will be needed (assuming this doesn't work out).
-
Not that I have anything to complain about with Jose... it works for him. But every time I see a ball pulled foul like that it reminds me a bit of the Murph years. Pull dat ball. Pitch 1 - foul homerun 20 feet Pitch 2 - foul pull grounder into the dugout. Pitch 3 - swing and miss pitch in dirt. Murph- Good aggressive at bat... Cito- At least the guy had a plan.
-
I think you are right. Don't know exactly how the math works out but if Going hits that grounder with guy on 3rd it's a run.
-
If you don't like Gibbons don't worry about it. He won't last the season. We are 2 years away from the rebuild but by June 1st there will be another manager hand picked by Beeston, if it isn't his consultant it will be someone his consultant Cito approves of. Beeston ain't going down in a conventional sense. He may have to arrange his own retirement, but he will force a managerial change first. Bastard. I like Gibbons.
-
It's 2 weeks at least. They tried the 4 days it didn't work. They have to DL him.
-
Ryan Goins 2014 - 158 games 70 at short stop, .226 .288 .312 2 WARs Reyes 2014 - 90 games 85 at short stop, .277 .320 .370 1 WARs because he is old, and injured and d no good. Paul Beeston Track team. Gibbons fired. Beeston and AA - If we don't win this year, we'll win next, if not next year the year after that. Next year is the year after that I guess. Rebuild starts -- 2017 after Beeston arranges his "retirement" last day of 2016 Paul Beeston celebration. 2014 - Olerud363 starts crazy rambling 2 innings into season. It is not even April. It's going to be a long year boys.
-
Nothing happened to him. He had a bad hamstring. He was destined to play 105 games. They rushed him back. Now his expectation of games played is 90. This is a terrible organization run by terrible people. This is what that looks like.
-
99% of you will flame me for predicting a mediocroty that neither Goins or Izturus will ever achiieve, even with their combined powers. Gruber92 will flame me for implying Ryan Goins should be platooned.
-
I assumed Reyes tweaked the hammy again when I read this. But it's just a platoon for Goins. Absolutely fine. Prediction that people will probably flame me for... Goinsturis .265 .322 .367 1.9 WAR
-
Annual Win Total Prediction Contest
Olerud363 replied to TDotttt2005's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
82 Since 1993 I see five distinct templates. 1. Have some big names including last years Cy Young Winner and are lookin' sweet but crash and burn completely and astonishingly. 95, 97, 2004, 2013 2. Almost win 90 but any time they get within 3 of the wild card have a bad week so were never really in it. 1998, 2003, 2006, 2008, 3. Win between 75-85 without anything to memorable happening. 1999, 2001, 2005, 2007, 2011. 4. Win about 75 with a manager controversey. 1996, 2009, 2012 5. Win 85 and Cito gets the boys to pull 250 into the seats. 2000, 2010 I vote for 3! -
Great news. As contrary as I am it would make me much happier to be wrong about all my negativity. Rather look stupid and be able to watch the Jays in the playoffs.
-
My god. The moment it went bad I think is the moment they did not trade Bautista at high value -- either after 2010, or even after 2011 (with the contract signed). Erase - all trades that involved a older player coming and younger players going. Replace with - trades that involve older players leaving for youth. So you get nice things for Bautista and maybe EE. The teams are worse so every draft pick is a little higher. This is the first year that a solid attempt at a winning team is made. Then next year start spending.
-
Peter Hardy left in 1989. He was baseball executive of the 80s and was the guy who built it. Pat Gillick was also an important architect. Paul Beeston was a 2-bit accountant and Cito Gaston was a hitting coach, they both lucked into their positions in 89. Gillick became upset at a few things. After 91 he wanted Gaston fired for playoff failures and perhaps development of some players. Beeston said no. One has to think Pat Gillick didn't like being bossed around by a slimy accountant. Gillick stuck around (obviously still had a great base and big time payroll permission) but left after 94. Post-94 is all Beeston and Gaston.
-
Yes. I've been raving about this for decades.
-
"The Beest", that is that database thingy probably was designed such that only super stars can be entered into it.