Olerud363
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Everything posted by Olerud363
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Even though this is the calmness thread it is now justifiable to be a little panicky... I am still calm because I had my own little fit... oh most of last year I guess. Stoeten! Beeston! On base percentage! rage... I went off my rocker pretty good a few times. Got it out of my system I guess. At this moment GDs prediction of 76 wins sounds as good as any. 8 walks?? Really. In my silly unscientific system that has to ding the win projection a bit.
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I find it is also easy to keep calm about baseball because there is a lot of world issues to worry about... a) will ebola break out world wide? (probably not, but you never know) will Putin start Nuclear war? (probably not, but you never know) c) where is the plane? (probably under the Indian ocean, but you never know) d) will the Blue Jays win the world series? (probably not, but you never know)
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It looks like we are on track for 80-82 now... 1/2 a game out of second wild card. Who do we have Dickey and Morrow next?? If we lose the next two it's not like it will kill us. Chances are we will win one of the games. But who knows. The team could still go on a huge tear. Especially if Dickey comes around. I'm not counting on it, but it could happen. Anyway I am calm this year not because I think we will make the playoffs... but because coming in to the season it looked like this was an 81 win team. We need some good fortune to win. So far that good fortune isn't coming. Last year I wasn't calm because I thought it was a 91 win team and it dissapointed me. This team is exactly what I expected. 81 win teams really suck because as they hover around .500 there are these points where it seems things could go right. So I predict some more high points some time season where it looks like they are champions... then they will dissapoint as they hit a losing streak and go back to .500.
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Yes but have you seen Melky?? Looks like 2011-2012 Melky. #milkman These things even out. Melky+Colby are calmly hitting the way we expected them to and they are helping us towards 82 wins.
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Easy to keep people calm when the Jays are 11-10. If this pattern holds and Dickey and Beurhle's era both normalize to 3.80 then it will be quite the calm march to 82 wins. We might not even notice the season happened.
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Good question. 82.5 means just that the geometric mean of the probability curve is centered on 82.5... there is an equal chance of 82 or 83. It is all just a probability curve. 82 exactly would mean the highest probably outcome is 82. I could also give a standard deviation... that would piss people off. I would be to lazy to actually calculate it so I would guess and it would piss the math guys off too because it wouldn't actually make sense.
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What are we?? 11-10?? My prediction stands at 82.5-79.5. The slight uptick is because I've been pleased with the offense lately. Health is actually good, Lawrie and Colby and EE should still see their averages rebound... if Lind comes back healthy... Keep calm everyone. It's not like the 2014 Jays are the 1927 Yankees, or even the 1993 Jays. But I kind of like what I am seeing from the hitters. Here's to a calm day for everyone. Only react if the situation deserves a reaction.
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In Dickey's Cy Young year his highest monthly era was 5.13 and his lowest was 0.8 or something. I am a bit worried about all the walks... that is something to keep an eye on... but month to month variation is always large. Roy Halladay Cy Young 2003 year?? 0-2 4.89 in April, 2-4 5.40 in August. Still won Cy Young with those 2 bad months. Beurhle is probably not a 30 game winner, Denny Maclain 68 like guy... Dickey is probably not the second comming of 1998 Joey Hamilton. What is happening isn't unnussual it is just very typical month to month variation. If current trends continue for 6 more weeks then maybe you have a case.
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You seem to be missing the point. Your comment is mean-spirited and silly. You seem like the small minded type. Sorry to insult you but what the hell does it matter if I make a projection every 5 days?? We over-react to small day to day variation. We over-react to other people's silly posts. This thread is a place to keep calm. Take your over-reaction and mean spirited attitude to another thread. There are plenty of them. Making a projection forces one to think about the magnitude of daily events. After a frustrating day like yesterday it seems as if the sky is falling. The Jays will win 50 and the franchise might move. After a couple of days of good games it seems everything might break right, the Jays might win 90 and squeak into the playoffs. In reality it takes several bad weeks (or good weeks) to determine the direction of the season, not a day. So making a projection every few days forces one to calmly deal with events as they happen over weeks (not hours). So here is today's projection -- My original season projection was 82-80. Given the events yesterday that has to be dinged just a bit. After last night's double header my projection is 81.3-80.7
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In retrospect it all seems obvious. Knuckleballers that succeed throwing 65 to 70 mph will age wonderfully because when they are 45 they can still throw f***ing 65. Knuckleballers that succeed throwing an 84 mph fastball with a hard (high 70s) knuckle may not age as well. They may in fact age like a normal pitcher. What happens when Dickey loses a few mph?? Well he has apparently lost a bit and it's been ugly. Will Dickey be invulnerable to injury?? Or is he actually going to have a normal injury profile becaue he is closer to max effort then other knucklers? I didn't think of this December 2012. In retrospect it seems obvious Dickey is not going to age like other knucklers have. I can only see it in retrospect. But a f***ing superscout should see it December 2012. If they can't then by definition they are not a superscout. Logically one has to conclude we don't have any superscouts, just old drunk cronies.
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Yes.
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I suspect Bautista is so unnussual he is revealing some flaw or bug in the system. It doesn't seem to me that Bautista is better then Votto. Yet the system has Votto in between EE and Bautista. The claim that EE is better for 2014 is not unreasonable. I would agree that Bautista is better for 2014, but I don't feel stronly one way or the other. .850 OPS 33 year old - last 2 seasons average 100 games ~.850 OPS. .825 OPS 31 year old (low k rate) - last 2 seasons 150 games ~.900 OPS. Nothing there that says one is "obviously" better then the other. Prediction software or any software ain't perfect. IE Heartbleed.
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A soft yes. EE is younger, better health and performance recently, and has the freaky low strikeout rate. Bautista has better peak years, and slightly better career numbers.
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Molitor and Winfield peaked at around 30. But they held on for a long time and were still very good (and importantly healhty) at 39/40. Bautista has more than likely seen his best year or two... however your point still stands. Bautista's peak was huge, 160 and 180 ops+. Age will bring him down a bit, but that he could still be elite. I am more worried about injuries. I don't know if he will be healthy, but if healthy he could win a couple more homer crowns. That would be fun.
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Latino's made Morrow and Johnson suck?? And Dickey under-perform?? wtf.
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Just checked and Bautista is on track for 135 runs and 110 rbis anyway. If any body complains then they should be shot on sight.
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Brandon Phillips had 100 rbis with 70 rbi numbers. Jay Bruce had a few extra rbis. It is obvious that Votto was in the middle of a lot of this. What is so difficult about this for some people?? Choo walk. Votto walk. wild pitch. Phillips ground ball. Choo single. Votto ground rule double. Bruce sac fly. s*** like this happened a tonne I am sure.
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tweaked a hammy would of been better wording. I am guessing it is nothing. Edit: Should not use the word bust in the "calm" thread. Rasmus experienced an ever-so-slight feeling of oddness in the hamstring. With a 10-1 lead or whatever it was John Gibbons calmly took him out of the game.
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This is the calmness thread... so here is my calm season projection. The projection is based on calm rational thoughts that do not change to much based on day to day events. 82.1-79.9 Original season projection was 82-80. General trends so far have been slightly positive. It is what it always has been, a low on base percentage injury prone team. But thus far the approach at the plate actually looks OK... the averages should rebound, some of the injured are coming back this week. The diabetic brothers look OK. Hutch has been decent. But then again Rasmus (slightly) busts a hammy now?? Izturis major injury?? Dickey still cold. Nothing to get excited about one way or the other. A lot of reasons to keep calm for a while longer.
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Filthiest pitch to ever be thrown from a Blue Jays uniform?
Olerud363 replied to Eragon's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Didn't Guzman throw a split fingered fastball?? I voted for Stieb. But Guzman and Marcum were close. Injuries really derailed Guzman and Marcum. I think we forget how good they were. When the Mets got Marcum I told a friend he was capable of a season like Dickey 2012. A guy with a trick pitch who had an outside chance to contend for a Cy Young if things broke right. Marcum just made guys look silly when he was on. But injuries and to much partying?? took him out. -
Justifiably so. This is a team for which everything needs to go right. Or atleast almost everything. Jose Reyes is allready down. Dickey looks bad. Bautista snaps his wrist and I think it would be realistically over. I think that if you modelled it the chances of making the playoffs are still 1/3. But not robust to a bad stretch or injuries. A 1-6 week with a major injury would end the season. It's hard to keep calm. Been that way for a while.
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Should we keep the Prospects/Minor league subforum
Olerud363 replied to G-Snarls's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
People don't go to it. I think the mods are gearing towards getting some more casuals interested in the site. I know the hard cores will check the subforums. But a lot of people just take a quick scan of the thread topics... then on to the next shiny object on the internet. I really think if they see some interesting threads about the young guys it will keep them coming back. The thread titles are basically a microfeed showing what's going in the blue jays world today... the more interesting and diverse the thread titles the more people will come. -
Should we keep the Prospects/Minor league subforum
Olerud363 replied to G-Snarls's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Move it all here. I think it will help the overall traffic of the site. People love getting updates about prospects. Especially since on this site you often get guys watching the video and going to games. It's a shame for that to be hidden a bit. Joe Blow comes here and see's a complete and thorough analys of Dwight Smith's swing, strikeout rate, line drive rate, and complete psychological analsyis and that's the kind of stuff that keeps them coming back. -
It makes me a little uncalm when Dickey gets hammerred. However at the end of the day I calm down and just accept that by seasons end our 2 old shitballers will be 22-20 combined with a 4.20 era. At times the knuckleballer will good at times he will look bad, at times the lefty will look good at times bad. It will even out. This is what an 82-80 team led by old shitballers looks like.
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So what is Brett Lawrie's ceiling now?
Olerud363 replied to Spoonovic's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
I think he is confusing guys like Wade Boggs or Big Mac who health willing will win the batting title or the homer crown every year, with guys like Ryne Sandberg... good all around players who could win one or the other once in a long healthy career. The second category is where Lawrie could go if things break right. I am not predicting Lawrie as a guy who will hit .350 for 5 years, or hit 250 homers in 5 years. I don't see him doing anything like that.