Olerud363

To be fair Davidi did not describe as an AI. Just as an analytics database. The context hints at something more than a simple database "the project was in development for 2 and a half years before going live". The description indicates to me that it is an ill-conceived expert-knowledge system.

These systems are only as good as the knowledge that is programmed into them. Who knows they may have programmed it to think like Beeston.

BP projects EE to play full time. Nobody else gets 500 plate appearances. So the Jays analytical system, assuming it works and assuming they use it should indicate they need more depth. Guys like Gose, Izturus, Sierra, Thole are going to get significant time at sub replacement. Add in Goins and this could be bad... AA's strategy seems to be that injuries are luck and luck turns at some point.

I just can't see that they are using analytics properly at all. Here's a simple example. I want to predict how many games the Blue Jays starters are going to play next year. Simplest system possible. Add up their career average games played and divide by number of seasons for all players. Simple average basically. Then people say well what about his, or what about that. It's not fair to put Goins on the list, he was a callup. Not fair to put Melky on he got a steroid suspension. And Lind platooned some years blah, blah, blah. But I think this is fine. We get an average, it's probably about 115. And that tells you that the Jays need more depth. Probably actually need another full time player and some positional flexibility to cover for inevitable injuries. You can have the most complicated system in the world. And what's it going to project?? 118.56?? Whatever is I bet it's not far from the simple average. Assuming it is done correctly. Now here is what I think. You have these experts systems. Especially in a coorporate environemnt, and they can be tweaked. AA says that Reyes' injuries were "fluke", so you could tweak your system so that an injury can be labeled as "fluke". AA wants to see Reyes and Bautista projected for 145 games. They yell at the programmers until they get the answer they want. What about this, what about that. You have to model Goins differently, and Lawrie differently. etc. Melky. Model the tumour somehow. But it's all ********. They're just rigging the system. Maybe why Sartori left??

Some other random comments that caught my eye. AA - critisized for being too stat oriented. Moises Sierra - "Sierra's going to hit no question" (Davidi does acknowledge that "he's dumb"!!!" Anthony Gose - Will get a starting job and "could certainly reach his all star potential" Brett Lawrie - Sky high ceiling. Could fall short because he's a meat head -- (reasonable) R.A. Dickey - For 25 million dubious investment. ???? Dubious investment because of the prospects given up. But for his salary he's worth it at 2013 level, and will be a bargain if he bounces back. Loup - "Worrisome decline in peripherals." -- 53 k, 13 bb, 5 hr. 69 ip. This is why Davidi shouldn't be writing this chapter. His 0 homerun rate was godly in 2012 but it was 20 innings. His peripherals are fine. Yes his hr rate increased by infinite... but it was still good. Nolin - Should be on the big-league mound every fifth day this year. Hutchison - Not even given a paragraph. Just a "lineout". Likely to work in aaa. Another reason Davidi shouldn't be writing this chapter. I don't mind that he's optimistic on Nolin. But really a blue jay expert should know that Hutchison still ranks ahead.

It should be Davidi... not Dividi. If a mod wants to edit title please do. I tried but couldn't see how to edit the title.

Mostly for entertainment purposes only. (I am guessing now that Davidi has dumbed it down a bit AA may actually go to one of BP events). Davidi actually makes some good points here and there. But this combined with a lot of nonsense. The absolute highlight - Blue Jays have "An analytics department that is a key part of the organization" The club has lauched basically a super AI named "the BEST". Pronounced "Beest" after Paul Beeston. A database which houses scouting reports, proprieatary analytics data, medical reports, and contractual data in one spot". It was launched by Jay Sartori who has left. So who knows. It may be really good... but the guy who knows how to run it is gone. I wonder if this is what is Despairing the agents?? OK Boros. We're ready to negotiate. You don't talk to us, you talk to "the Best". It's a computer model named after Beeston. And it will Despair you!!!!"

To give them credit I don't think it is completely random. Talk on the board lately has focused on the Jays use of despair. The front office despairs the agent and the player. If it drives them away that is OK. They weren't mentally tough enough anyway. Despair is actually an analytic used to measure the once unmeasurmable "makeup". Players with good makeup can handle despair.

Along side average, HRs, rbiz, and wins they use Man Strength - "Gibby on JA Happ - "He is a big part of what we are trying to do here. He is a big strong guy"

Bad news here. He's allready reached the average age of a smoker. But that doesn't mean he will drop dead though. Statistically he will still live another 14 years or so. A non smoker could be expected to live another 18 or so. At least according to this http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/01/smoking-health_n_3852209.html

Another positive is that this is basically the most unified I've ever seen this board. Most people are directing their mean, hurtful, sarcastic and cutting comments at AA and Beeston instead of each other. It might be end times but we have... peace.

One very positive thing is that after reading this thread (a classic I think) I have finally clued into how the Rogers 3 year plan works... If we don't win this year (year 1) we win next year (year 2) if we don't win next year we win the year after that (year 3). #Beestly, #Rogers3YearPlan

And if we don't make them next year we'll make them the year after that.

When the roof is open you can actually watch the game from that window floory thingy up their. I watched a bit of an argos game from up there last year.

We have the greatest GM of all time of all the GMs with as much or less baseball experience as AA, as much or less education, and as much or less other life accomplishments.

I believe Ryan Goins will put up a .305 on base percentage and 1 or 2 WAR based on defense. If Brett Lawrie is healthy he will be as good as Kelly Gruber 88 to 90. Stroman may well be the greatest pitcher as short or shorter then himself of all time (depending on Tom Gordon's exact official height to the 1/10 inch). If Hutchison is healthy he could be really good. Was better (statistically) then Stroman until his TJ. He is 6'2" so the short-people haters can't hate him. Drabek could be the greatest double TJ pitcher of all time. Melky may be the greatest former steroid former tumour guy ever.

That they have not made it in 20 years is closer to a rare event. Especially given the position they started from. It would be interesting to have a tool that would dynamically generate the odds based on different moves. MLB teams must have access to such things. For example run the odds with Ubalda in Baltimore and Drew in Boston, then run them again with Ubalda in Toronto, and Drew in Toronto. Seems obvious that some organizations are doing stuff like this and probably have been for a while. Beeston and AA are too busy despairing agents.

I'm not sure if it is that bad, If I am reading this right Fangraphs has them at 34% chance of making the playoffs. Only 16 of winning the division. 2 wild cards help. http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx The average team has a 33% chance of making the playoffs. So this says Blue Jays are an average team. They are projected as 82, which I think everyone roughly agrees on. However another 5 or 6 "projected" wins makes a huge difference in playoff odds. This makes recent events more discouraging. By adding 5 wins (Ubaldo, Drew, some little things like Lind platoon) the playoff odds would of doubled and the odds for ALDS, ALCS, and world series basically triples. I think the angst seen here today is a good example of crowd wisdom. The turkeys here realize the importance of going from an 82 projection to 88 even if AA and Beeston don't.

I agree here. But what if there was a chance to sign Choo?? Or trade for Stanton?? What I would of liked to see is AA do everything possible to get one more real good position player. Target 2b. But also 3b and outfielders and being willing to shift Lawrie/Bautista if needed. That would of been better then Goins. Given we are talking Goins or Gose... not worth it to shift guys.

And they lost Gomes... who would look nice hear as catcher and Lawrie insurance.

If number one, number 2, and 3 of Dickey, Marky, Morrow, Stroman and Hutch are slightly above average the Jays will make the playoffs. I think what people are underestimating is the probability of this happening. Say there is a 90% chance for each of Bautista, Reyes, Lawrie and EE to be healthy... there is only a 63% chance they will all be healthy. Then say there is a 50% chance Lawrie will take a step forward. That means there is a 30% chance they will all be healthy and Lawrie will step forward, blah, blah, blah., After working it all out there is only a minute chance, 1 in a million probably that your scenario as written comes true. The good news there are other scenarios that produce a pennant. For example Bautista, Reyes and Dickey play at peak MVP like level (with only other minor things going wrong). Stroman and Hutch battle for rookie of the year. Morrow pitches 200 innings with Lawrie playing 160 games. These projection systems take all this into account. Some of them I think simulate seasons thousands of times. I guesse those simulations give you a good idea of the odds. Haven't seen that type of data this year. But I guess the 2014 Jays make playoffs 5-10% of the time in those?

What did Yoda say?? Do or do not there is no try? Move Lawrie to second or do not. Don't move him there for a weekend. Go All-in or do not. But don't go all-in one offseason than nothing the next. Once they make a decision about a players position that decision will need months to be implemented. Not 10 plays. Once they make a decision about franchise direction that decision will need years to be implemented. Not 4 weeks in one offseason.

They actually needed another good outfielder. They had a perfect excuse to move Melky to 4th outfielder (steroid rehap and tumour recovery). He still would get 120 games just platooning with Lind and filling in for the others.

Yeah but when Zobrist was getting established they had him all over the place. In 2008/2009 he played short, second, right, center and a couple games at third. He hit really well those years.

I think it sort of depends on how one weights Goins 2013 mlb defensive numbers, vs. Goses apparent 2013 decline. If it becomes apparent that 2013 was just a down year for Gose (not a trend) and that the 2013 mlb numbers for Goins were very optimistic (ie his D will not carry his bat) then you might be right. Regardless it would be nice to have this option.