Olerud363

I think they were looking at Tampa's success with guys like Ben Zobrist. Zobrist played 40 games at ss the last 2 years. Is he an idea short stop?? No. But positional flexibility can be very helpful. Lawrie is not a perfect second basemen... but it gives the team more options. Just like playing Bautista or EE at 3rd does. My opinion is that it shouldn't be unreasonable for guys to be able to handle 2 or 3 positions. Have Bautista take reps at 3rd once and a while, Lawrie at second. Just have them ready in case you need them somewhere else. Troy Glauss played a few games at short when the Jays had a fly ball pitcher going in 2006. I like creative stuff like that. But what always happens is the players, and the media complain. If something goes wrong, even just one screw up it gets magnified. The starting pitcher is pissed (Lawrie shouldn't of been at second), the media second guesses management. So it is simple to keep it simple. But Tampa is willing to take these risks... play guys at different spots.

What's wrong with that?? When Joe Carter got to that stage Cito still had him hitting cleanup.

Travis Snider beyond anything else. I thought for sure, given what Delgado did, what Olerud did, what Green did, that given time and 500 at bats he would do the same. They all struggled a bit young but put it together. Snider 2009-2010 were fine. And part of me still wants him to get 500 at bats just to see what would happen. But in the last 5 years he hasn't done a thing to show he deserves a chance at 500 at bats.

It has such a large degree of randomness that the good Hedge fund guys, those who understand what a crock a s*** 90% of human experts are do great in it. Henry, Sternberg. Strienbenner family aren't hedge fund guys but old school wheeler dealers. The politicians like Beeston do awful. Beeston sits through the Loblaws board meeting thinking some f***in' idiot there can predict the next 'Decadent'. Then he thinks some idiot scout can predict what an 18 year old will do 7 years from now, or how some 30 year old player will age. Not that it's completely random. But it's very difficult to predict individual outcomes, so you have to predict which strategies will work, which groups of players to target.

I proposed Ryan Goins will have a .305 on base percentage and maybe WAR and a half mainly from D. Some people thought I was dellusional. One has to wonder what type of player we are dealing with if a tad over .300 on base projection is considered insane.

I voted under. Mainly to be contrary. But this team is a low 80s team. Depending how you model it anything between 78 and 84 is a reasonable projection. Old, injury prone team coming off a 74 win season. Bautista is 33, EE 31, Reyes 31. Beuhrle 35?, Dickey 39 and relies on speed more than the old knuckleballers. The catcher has averaged 60 games over the last 4 years. The other Catcher is Josh Thole. I project Ryan Goins the second basemen to have a .305 on base percentage and get trashed as being a delusional optimist. Those who believe in Stroman get trashed because no pitcher shorter then him has ever won a game (or something like that). Morrow will never be healthy. Romero is still there around and might pitch some games (since Ortiz won't). What else?? The left fielder is recovering from steroid withdrawal and a tumour. He might be OK but nobody knows what to expect. 78 is reasonable if you believe the Goins haters, the Morrow haters, the Stroman haters, the Thole haters, the people who think Lawrie will always crash into things. And yes I hope they do way better. I will be the happiest person if they win 95.

Those 2 guys only cost the team a win by advanced metrics. Even by simple metrics (wins) they were 2-4... so say we send better guys out for those starts, thats 3-3. It's a win.

Jeter is super healthy. Ellsbury and Gardner have awesome years. Jeter clutch hits them in game after game. Derek Jeter .302 .345 .404 12 homers 115 rbi. -3 WAR on defense. 1.5 WAR total. MVP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Ryan Goins .260 .310 .350 5 homers 45 rbi + 3 WAR on defense... 4 WAR total. Not wanting to get into another Ryan Goins argument... just saying it would be hilarious if Derek Jeter wins MVP but Ryan Goins has more than twice as much WAR.

Why not.

Could have the greatest swing in the world but won't help if he can't recognizes pitches.

Yes the Goins prediction is high. It looks like the average of the prediction systems have him at roughly .230 .270. So I've basically got him at 30 points extra batting average. If it goes the other way he is at .200 .240. Just as likely to happen I guess. If the Jays are seriously thinking of playing Ryan Goins their projection has to be close to mine. They have to think he can hit just a little, and play some D. So perhaps I am thinking right along side with the great minds in the organization.

I don't disagree with you. In fact that's all I'm saying. Hech's milb line is boosted by Vegas. His .380 would be a .320 in a different park. The .320 a .275. Anyway we have two mediocre players. Minor league numbers very similiar. Who the f*** knows what they'll hit, I don't. Other than it will be mediocre... .220 .250 .300 horrible?? Or .260 .300 .350 just sort of bad?? My only gripe is with people who think that one is better than the other clearly beyond any reasonable doubt. And then with people who are acting like my optimistic Goins prediction is crazy. Could either of Hech and Goins just scrape over a .300 obp?? Could either of them squeak out a WAR or two based mostly on defense?? Christ. Of course they could. I am not predicting MVPs here. People are acting like I'm predicting Goins to be the next Barry Larkin.

Hech hit .389 .431 .537 in his short sample season of aaa in Vegas for a 147 wRC+. Josh Thole had a 150 wRC+ at .320 .383 .500. Heck hit .312 .363 .424 in his much larger sample 106 season. Couldn't really find a 106 wRC+ player in 2013 Buffallo. But in 2012 Josh Rodriguez was .265 .327 .420 at 108wRC+. If Hech was in buffalo his line would look much less impressive. I am not belittling him. I am comparing him to Ryan Goins and concluding the sum of their minor league work is very close in value. If Hech was not in Vegas his SSS 2011 would read .320 .370 .480 or there-abouts. His 2012 would read .270 .330 .400 or so.

A lot of passion for two mediocre players. Theire numbers are actually quite similiar. Personally I have no idea how they will turn out. I've never seen either play. I'm no scout anyway. I predicted Ryan Goins could put up 1.6 WAR based mostly on defense and a .305 on base percentage. By the reaction I'm getting you'd think I predicted he'd win the batting title. It's insane that these morons think they can predict stats within 20 points of on base percentage. Goins is predicted to put up a .280 obp, but maybe he'll scrape out a low .300. Nobody f***ing knows. But a couple of f***ing bad apples think they are Nostradumus and can predict things things with exact precision... and that poor kid GordieDougie is soaking it all up.

I did not say better aaa numbers. I said better milb numbers. Goins milb numbers are a bit better over a period of years. Hech's "good" season appears very good because of Vegas. But looking at their entire minor league record Goins is probably a tad better, it's close. Hech's 146 was sss and followed a larger sample size 67 wRC+ in New Hamphire. So for context (you're becoming quite the cherry picker, like Grant77) the 146 wRC+ you post was 2012 Hech - 2012 aa 500 plate appearances - 67 wRC+ aaa 100 plate appearances - 146 wRC+ Hech posted about a 67 wRC+ at double a, Goins 105. Hech posted a 42 wRC+ at Dunnedin, Goins 109. They've both had ups and downs. I brought up the park factors, not because it makes Goins aaa numbers better, but because it does move them closer, and taking that with Goins better performance in dunnedin and new hamphsire gives him a bit better overall minor league record. And any way what the f*** is your problem?? I didn't even f***ing say Goins was better. I said "Hech might be better, but he's not "not even a question" better.

Who would you say are players that are better known and did less?? Guys worse then Carter who are better known? This is a pretty good summarry. Some guys seem to be overrated AND great. For example Ted Williams is about 120 WAR, but has 160 "rated WAR" (page explains how they did it). Guys that are better known and did less?? Scanning the list I can't see any. (Throw out some names, I can be convinced) Carter has 16 WAR and 41 "rated WAR". Once could argue Dante Bichette is more overrated... but I don't know. Is he as well known?? http://highheatstats.blogspot.com/2012/01/50-most-overrated-batters-in-baseball.html

He was about the 10th most valueable player on both of those teams, if that. Alomar, White, Olerud, Winfield, Molitor, Lee, Fernandez, Guzman, Henke, Ward, Key, Hentgen, Morris all beat Joe in WAR in 1992 or 1993 (or both for many of them). David Cone, Ricky Henderson, and Candy Maldanado and probably some others beat him in WAR/game. Carter had 8 career WAR with Toronto. He is behind Yunel Escobar in career Toronto WAR. He is behind Damsco Garcia. He is behind Otto Velez. He is behind Greg Zaun. http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/leaders_bat_50.shtml He is the 34th greatest blue jay position player of all time despite having more playing then most of them. He is the 50th or so best player when including pitchers. He is behind Al Leiter. When normalized for playing time he is probably not among the top 100 players ever to play for the Blue Jays. Let me repeat. Joe Carter has less Toronto WAR then Greg Zaun.

Hey, it's an optimistic projection. Steamer has Hech at -0.1, Oliver at 1.7 and fans at 0.8 Steamer has Goins at 0.0, Oliver at 0.7 and fans at 0.8 From what I hear Goins is a good defensive short stop as well. So he could possibly be more valuable at short. The major projection systems are not seeing much difference between Goins and Hech. I am more optimistic on Goins. Better MILB numbers (when you considered Goins aaa is at Buffalo, and Hech's is at Vegas) My projection is positive, but not wildly positive. Excuse me for using Buffalo and Vegas park factors when making a prediction.

FYI Hech prediction for contest. .255 .288 .355 -0.2 War (defense sucks) Given same playing time at short Goins : .260 .305 .344 1.6 war

What the heck is wrong with you?? Player A: 189 mlb games .232 .269 ..311, -2.1 WAR - .273 .315 .382 minors with the "Vegas" boost. Player B: 34 mlb games .252 .264 .345 1.4 WAR - - .273 .330 .372 minors NO "Vegas" boost. It's not your opinion that I find objectional. It's the "not even a question" part. That us, the common people, can't look at the stats and question what they mean. That we need a great mind like yours to be the "decider" and tell us what to think. That your personal observations out-trump the stats by so much that we can't question your conclusion. Hech might well be better. But he's not "not even a question" better.

The Canadian health care system is an atomic bomb compared to the firecracker that is Obamacare. Obamacare is so insanely complicated that it is difficult to predict what will happen. It involves a vast array of programs, the main ones medicaid expansion (free health care expansion) and private health insurance subsidies based on income. The two main parts can atleast be tweaked if things start to head south. On the other hand if for some reason the s*** hits the fan in Canada it will be much more difficult to solve. No matter what happens, even if it was the addition of small copays, there would be riots on the streets. Canada has a lot of social programs for young people. In the U.S. most social programs are for the extreme very, very, poor and focused on kids, or the older people. The healthy young adults don't get much. They allready recieve little, so not much to take away. If you took aware their Obamacare U.S. young adults would celebrate. If you tweaked their socialized health care (atleast some) Canadian young adults would start a civil war. That's a time bomb.

World Series Rings are partly luck once you get to the playoffs. OK. So Oakland and the Rays don't have rings... well Florida Marlins have 2 Championships. One with a relatively low payroll in 2003. Are you saying Florida "knows how to win"? Should we copy Florida circa 2003 becasue they got a ring?? Why not. Lets look into it. Big payroll teams get to the playoffs more often. But to discredit Oakland and Tampa because they don't have rings?? Silly. It's 1/8 once you get to the playoffs. Perhaps the big money teams have a slight advantage. I don't know. But I doubt it's huge. And even if there is some magic playoff powser that one can buy. Why not just follow the Oakland and Tampa model to build the base. Toronto is huge. If we built the base that Oakland/Tampa has (a few 90 win seasons low payroll seasons with a great farm) then we could save the money and be so loaded we could buy anything we wanted if the farm dried up. Kind of like how the Yankees build with young Jeter/Posoda/Bernie/Petite etc. then bought as the farm dried.

I think people are no longer thinking of the best moves long term.... but thinking of the best moves given the management team in place. So most people aren't expressing what THEY'D do. But expressing their hopes for the best move that AA/Beeston can make given that they are AA/Beeston. At least that's my take. The team is projected low 80s. Any of Jimenez, Santana, Drew individually gets them to 84, 85. To get to a 90 win projection they have to go the Frankenstein route.

"Bonifacio and Rajai Davis on the same team!!!!!!!!" (an unscientific analysis of Track Teams vs. Non-Track teams is below using great Cardinals orgnaization as example). Track team Cardinals (1985) .264 .335 on base 314 sb 87 hr. 747 runs scored (1st in league) Note 314 sb the ultimate track team. Lost World Series to KC Royals. No Track team Cards (2013) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- .269 .332 on base 45 sb 125 hr 783 runs scored (1st in league) Note 45 sb. Not a track team. Lost World Series to Boston Red Sox. 2 cardinal teams very close in overall stats other than hr (no track team hit 40 more) and sb (track team stole 270 more). Effect of greatest track team ever = very little. 40 more homer team scored more runs. Overall results the same.

This is all still small sample size. The trends may bear out but Gose has always been heralded as a top shelf defensive center fielder, while Goins hasn't been on the radar either way. 1 year ago no one was saying Ryan Goins would be the type of player who's D can carry him, while Gose not only won't hit, but won't have the D to make up for it. This might all be true. Time will tell.