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Olerud363

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Everything posted by Olerud363

  1. Olerud363
    A little health and we're not having this conversation. Lawrie hits .270 .320 .430 in 157 games and hits 17 homers 75 rbis... it just looks close to 20 homers, enough rbis. Looks like a good line for a 23 year old. 109 games 11 homers... rate numbers dinged a bit as he is a bit rusty coming back from injuries... it looks puny.
  2. Olerud363
    Some of us old timers got really burnt on Snider. Listen we said, Delgado struggled, Olerud struggled, Thome struggled, these guy struggle a bit... but don't worry fat kid will hit. Fat kid didn't hit. Maybe it was the strike-outs.
  3. Olerud363
    If he is a line drive hitting .280 to .320 guy he has a great chance of winning a batting title... Freddie Sanchez won a batting title. Home run title?? Ryne Sandberg didn't really start hitting till he was 24... then won a homerun title eventually. Hit 8 homers at 23. God only knows how Lawrie is going to develop given his personality. All I'm saying is this. Take guys who are real good... a lot of them looked like Lawrie heading into their age 24 season. Take guys who are 23 and look like Lawrie... some of them will be good more of them won't. Given his tools he's got an excellent chance at being real good... given his head he's got an excellent chance at being Travis Snider. Not even god and the super-scouts know on this one.
  4. Olerud363
    That's a good one. I've always thought Kelly Gruber, hopefully with a good 10 year stretch instead of Gruber's 3 (88-90).
  5. Olerud363
    ... and this is the other end of the possibilities. I worry about that too.
  6. Olerud363
    His ceiling is still huge. He could win a homerun title and a batting title. Ceiling is the best we could expect him to do. He's actually very comparable to Adrian Beltre at age 24 (Beltre was way healthier). Beltre didn't really put it together until 25. Then still has gone up and down a bit. I know people will think I'm crazy... but he could still be a superstar. He has the tools. Will he reach his ceiling?? I don't know. His k-rate is not bad, still got natural power, so I would say as long as he stays healthy he's got a shot. Not one of these guys like Travis Snider who will struggle for contact... I think. [edit] and just to pre-emptively fend off the "nut-case" comments.. plenty of players with Lawrie's skill set have contended for home run titles. Aaron Hill almost won one for chist's sake. Bill Mueller won a batting title. So yes. If (big if) Lawrie puts it together he may be able to contend for these things. Same could be said about a lot of young players. They don't all put it together obviously.
  7. Olerud363
    Really nothing overly positive nor negative right now. The weird thing is this team after 9 games is what it's been the last 20 years. Ground hog day. So-So team with on base percentage problems and injuries. 2nd in homers, 13th in on base percentage the closer and the short stop on the disabled list. The positive is that the on base percentage problems are largely due to the .222 team average which will normalize. They get Reyes back and Lawrie and Colby start hitting... be interesting to see that.
  8. Olerud363
    I don't know. Everything that has gone on the last 2 years... it is like a case study in the age old question would you trade your manhood for your dreams?? I think that is the dynamic between Beeston and AA. AA can have the dream. GM of the Toronto Blue Jays. But it comes at the price of his manhood. He has to be Beeston's bitch and one day wake up and see his fat obese ass waddling and trending on the internet.
  9. Olerud363
    I've never had a loan for anything. Worked through University and never took a loan. Bought new cars with cash. Rented. Never bought a house. Perhaps long term not the correct decisions. I'm not sure. Basically I don't like Beeston types, in life you have to work for them sometimes.. It is a lot easier if you can afford to get canned. Can be more honest with them. Sometimes you have to say "Paul you are wrong about this and you are actually wrong about almost everything, in fact you my friend are a f***ing drunk moron!", and let the chips fall where they may.
  10. Olerud363
    Yes he gave up Michael Young. But he had Delgado, Green, Gonzales, Stewart, Carpenter, Halladay, Escobar, Cruz, Vernon Wells. All viewed as elite prospects. There were times that he could of sold some of those chips, but didn't. Michael Young was one no one saw coming... it happens.
  11. Olerud363
    Yes. That was a brilliant move. Clemens gave them 20 WAR over 2 years. The rest of it was a s***-show even beyond anything we've seen lately. You had Joe Carter as the "heart" of the offense... not the 86-93 version that was useful at timesbut the 37 year old Joe Carter who was literally J.P. Arencibia by this point... and you had Jacob Brumfield, and Ruben Sierra, and Mariano Duncan coming in and out eating up 600 plate appearances of worse then Arencibia performance. I don't even know how to explain it to the younger fans. Let's say this. 2013 Jays get Dickey. Dickey is brilliant beyond belief. 10 WAR leads league in everything. But Jays still win 74 games because they are f***ing around with guys like Jeff Franceur. Take Jeff Franceur. Make 4 of them. Make one of them the heart of the offense, and use the other 3 to eat up at bats from good young players.
  12. Olerud363
    He did get burnt on Loiza/Young. But managed to make moves, even exciting moves without giving up what were regarded a "a" prospects. Got David Cone coming off a Cy Young for b-prospects (with Delgado, Green, Gonzales, Stewart all in the system, managed to pull off the trade without using them). Got Clemens in free-agency. Got minor pieces, Stanley, Santiago, Fletcher, for little.
  13. Olerud363
    It's totally performance (luck) based and need based. If his ERA is below 3 after a month and Jays starters are struggling I have almost no doubt he will be here. If his ERA is around 4 (with same peripherals) and no need in the big club then he won't be here for a while. Sanchez is the kind of guy managers and scouts scream for. Even if AA wants to stick to a development plan it will be hard if May 15th, Sanchez is 4-1 2.95, big strong kid with 96 mph and wicked stuff, and Happ (replacing Hutch) is 0-2 8.33. And I should clarify there are a few guys they will consider before Sanchez all being equal... Stroman, Nolin, Drabek. It's just if Sanchez is the guy who looks real good at a moment of need they will probably take him.
  14. Olerud363
    And everyone, atleast on this message board, saw this coming. Stephen Drew and a good right handed bat like Baker could of been worth 4 wins. It's starting to look like the injured are going to be injured and the sucky are going to be sucky. If we have a group of players, Goins, Sierra, Short stop replacements that end up at -2 WAR and we could have had Baker and Drew instead... 4-6 wins right there.
  15. Olerud363
    fyi -- I can't figure out why you started arguing that Bonifacio will put up huge WAR. At first I gave you the benefit of the doubt... figured you were legitemitely positive and had put some thought into it. Now I figure you are either a troll or sick.
  16. Olerud363
    3-4 with Hutch getting rocked. New calm projection - 81.4-80.6 Over-reactionary projection - 74-88 (was 94-68 yesterday)
  17. Olerud363
    Is he as fat as Ash?? I mean really what is the difference between Ash and AA?? AA - didn't get the male pattern baldness gene. Ash - didn't trade the farm system.
  18. Olerud363
    I think the younger people on this board don't realize how easily a buffoon could become president of the Blue Jays. Everybody thinks that Beeston "built" the 1992/1993 teams. But Beeston got the pres job in 89. How long does it take one to dramatically effect the course of a franchise?? About 4 or 5 years. The World Series wins happened because of Pat Gillick and Peter Hardy and the talent base that was allready there. 94-2014 is a reflection of Beeston, AA, Godfrey, JP. Ash.
  19. Olerud363
    Just a small suggestion. Maybe can we leave the stupid newbie threads open for a bit longer?? Referring to the Bonifacio thread. By all means if some idiot is starting multiple stupid threads close them. If it is just one stupid thread then maybe leave it open and let it sort it self out?? I think people enjoy spirited discussion on occasion. If someone wants to start a thread on "Arencibia for DH", "on base percentage is overrated", or "Bonfiacio will lead the league in WAR" then why not?? If they satart all three of these threads at once then sure they are trolling. Otherwise I'd let it go. btw. I didn't read the entire thread. Just saw that some guy claimed Bonifacio would be top 5 in WAR or something. Ridiculous so ofcourse I wanted to chime in. Anyway a "Bonififacio lead league in WAR" kind of discussion is great for newbies. They can get a feel for WAR and bashing idiots in a non-pressure situation. Like a warm up for a Trout vs. Cabrerra MVP discussion.
  20. Olerud363
    Dickey comes back against all odds. It's a miracle. Dickey and Beurle slop balling version of 2001 Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling??? Jose Bautista and Melky Cabrerra new bash brothers?? On pace for 150 homers. JSFIP foresaw this. Some did not. Calm cool rational season projection - 81.9-80.1 Irrational season projection heavily biased to yesterdays events - 94-68
  21. Olerud363
    Sorry to hear that. Thanks for letting us know.
  22. Olerud363
    My original projection for the team was 82-80. After 4 days the only new information I have is that Reyes will miss atleast 2 weeks and be replaced by questionable individuals. The combined performance of Dickey/Hutch/Buerhle/Morrow is exactly as expected. Individual variaton will probably even out. Due to the Reyes injury I dock .2 of a win. My projection stands at 81.8-80.2. Wether JSFIP has any logical reason to predict better then 81.8-80.2 I do not know. He gets no thanks today as the Jays are exactly where expected. Neither up or down from reasonable hopes.
  23. Olerud363
    Spanky is fine. We've had tussles. He's insulted me several times. I've insulted him. However if I say something he agrees with, he will tend to agree with me. If I say something he disagrees with he will tell me I'm dumb. I certainly don't think he is slow. Probably the opposite. He is tired of the constant negativity I think.
  24. Olerud363
    JSFIP. Your calm rational thoughts have so far proved to be an uncanny premonition. My own opinion is that old junk ballers are a dangerous species, yet Mark Buerhle looked like the Ace we have all been waiting for. I gave you another thanks. In my time on the board I have seen many positive thinkers come and go. Thus far you have stood the test of time unlike the others who have all fallen. Keep in mind it has only been two days. We will all turn on you quickly if things go downhill.
  25. Olerud363
    Actually a seriously great topic. I checked his stats yesterday and assumed at first the on base and slugging collumns were mixed up. But no. He has posted .358 career on base with a .297 slugging. Insane. The dogma is that this type of player doesn't translate well to the majors because pitchers will throw him strikes. But the projection system have his mlb line something like .230 .320 .300. So if the projection can be trusted I think his offense is actually a bit better then Goins. If the Jays can be trusted maybe his D is better too?? Or maybe they just want Goins to be comfortable at second.
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