Olerud363

Aaron Hill was drafted in 2003 and here in 2005. I think that's realistic for a good college player. If it takes longer he's having trouble somewhere. Russ adams drafted in 2002 and here in 2004. John Olerud was drafted in 1989 and here in 89. Did not stop in the minors. Special case obviously. J.P. Arencibia drafted in 2007, here in 2010. And that was after hitting a huge road bump in the first go in aaa. So I like I said if all goes well 2015. If he hits a major road bump that may only delay it a year to 2016. If he falls apart completely... well hopefully not.

I guess you did not technically tell him he couldn't swear. But you did compare him to Andrew Stoeten. That was mean. I guess it was a joke. But maybe he didn't get it was a joke and now he thinks he is operating at the same level as Andrew Stoeten??

What if the other two guys are Mark "30" Buerhle and Drew "what comes after Stieb and Halladay" Hutchison? Taking pain killers for his tumour?? Talking hitting with Mottola and Murph?? Calm down my friend. Enjoy it. But keep calm.

He is allowed to swear in the calm thread. Some people take drugs to keep calm. Some people swear. We have one rule on the calm thread. Whatever keeps you calm is cool. If a poster is doing something that is making you uncalm you just have to calm down about it. Maybe fight it out on another thread.

Hey! This is the calm thread. We don't kick people off the board on this thread. There are more aggressive threads for that kind of thing. At the same time you are totally allowed to swear on this thread. Swearing may seem aggressive, but for some it calms them down. Swearing is cool. The other guy was out of line a bit.

We need to keep calm but we have to start asking.... When will Masahiro Tanaka demand a trade to a contender like the Blue Jays?? When will people start saying such and such "out of nowhere" star is the next Francisco? When will the 9th and 11th picks sign? (I am guessing both sign below market deals at about 8:00 tonight just to join this juggernaught of an organization as soon as possible). Stay calm my friends.

Just another calm day. Partly cloudy, no rain, no wind, no extreme weather either way. Not to much going on in the world. So here are just a few of calm random thoughts on our hitting coach Kevin Sietzer. First I bring you back to 1990. George Brett looked done. Late into June he was hitting horrible. Then all of a sudden he hit .390 or so in the second half of 1990 to win a batting title in a third decade. I think knowing what we know now we gotta speculate that sometime in June Kevin Sietzer (who was on that Royals team) sat down and gave him some hitting tips. Second. Ryan Goins. There is no way he was listening to Sietzer's hitting tips. I have to speculate he was getting bad advice from his Uncle, or his Sister, or his old high school hitting coach, or Duane Murphy. Third. What would J.P. Arencibia hit if he was still on the team and listened to Sietzer's hitting tips?? I am guessing .280 with a .350 on base. But I with the cavaet that J.P. may not be smart enough to understand Sietzer's advice. On that note why is Brett Lawrie still under .240 even with Sietzer?? Is he not listening?? I think he is listening, but he probably has an undisclosed injury. Broken wrist or something that would put him out for the season, however Sietzer has reworked his mechanics so he can just get by and avoid the disabled list Keep calm my friends.

Just came to the calm thread just to get the blood pressure down a tad... and what the f***?? Trade the team?? I guess it is a old article from April. Careful what you post here. We are insecure. Keep calm. Don't trade the team.... at least not until we calmly watch to see if the hot streak goes anywhere. Whatever substances keeps you calm, legal or illegal, it is OK on this thread.

Cito - Paul did you see this?? Beeston - I certainly did. silence Cito - It's f***ing mutiny. It's f***ing disrespect. Beeston - It's not the Blue Jay way that's for sure. Patience my friend. Patience. I'll handle it. These things can be tricky politically, especially when the team is winning. But Hisle, Sarge, and Denbo went down this foolish path before.. and they are no longer with us. Sietzer will get his soon enough.

Crazy stuff. Looked kindof good June 2000 but Cruz, Mondesi, and Batista all ended up with negative value within 2 years. Batista was released June of 2001 (waiver pickup), Mondesi given away to the Yanks in 2002, Cruz released after 2002. Delgado was viewed as an albatross despite the fact he played well enough (just not at 2000 level).

Hi Mr. Twisted Logic. I hate to argue with you, and I know I can be a jerk sometimes but in fact the 2000 team had an average offense. The problem was nobody new it because the organization has always been run by idiots. I know it is very hard to believe that a team that hit 240 homers and scored 860 runs was average. They were 10th in on base percentage, 8th in runs. They were 5th in runs with 883 in 1999. But for some strange reason the Sarge was fired (see Mottolo, and Histle) Cito Gaston took over and made them worse. The teams offense regressed a bit to average. Cito took a team and made it worse. However the media kept saying Cito was awesome. Weird stuff. The offensive levels in late 90s, early 2000s, and the Nasdaq level was so high it screwed up everybody's thinking. 860 runs was nothing special for 2000. 2000 team was just another "pull the f***ing ball" lots of homers, lower on base percentage, average runs kindof team.

Did he hint at that?? I'll note here that Adam had his best year under Cito. So my ranting is a bit silly. But maybe Cito didn't like Adam having success hitting to all fields so in 2010 went nuts at him. My impression of Lind's career. Adam - comes up as .300 .370 .500 hitter with big platoon splits but could of learned to hit lefties. Cito - pull the f***ing ball Adam - .240 .280 .400 for his prime. Cito - f***in awesome, Adam almost hit the fifth deck, to bad it was 20 feet foul. Adam now 30. Good platoon player but his prime (late 20s) was ruined.

a) Edwin Bautista both exploded at 29... there was some discussion on which one would have a better season with the projection systems and the hive saying Bautista... I thought it was even (give the simiarity of their numbers and that EE is 2 years younger) but so far looks like the hive was right cause Bautista is 90s Frank Thomas while EE is... Greg Vaughn 98ish.

The prediction I was responding to was Lawrie/Rasmus/Bautista/Reyes play 150 games. It was impossible by mid april. It is now impossible for Reyes or Rasmus to play 150 games. Lawrie would need perfect health the rest of the way. Bautista hasn't missed a game and is hitting like it's 2011. Hutch has been as most predicted, as has Dickey. Buerhle is Bob Welch (old timers will remember). The most pleasant surprise is that the team is reasonable resilient to injury as constructed right now. If a catcher goes down there are still 2 left. If an outfielder goes down Gose provides some D. Lawrie at second means If Reyes or Lawrie goes down only need one no-hit all-d middle infielder. If a slugger goes down there are still 2 left. One can be DH'd and let Gose provide D in the outfield. If a shitballer goes down.. oh well. There is some other shitballer Hendricks who looks he can shitball. If a young 23 year old pitcher goes down, there are 2, so we still have 1. If both diabetics fall out of the rotation... were we really counting on the diabetics?? Between shitballers and 23 year olds we got it covered?

That's it. That's how I imagine Beeston speaking. Mike Myers can play him in the movie.

I guess no one really knows the Beeston/AA/Gibby dynamics. Maybe it was Beeston's idea. Beeston - "So I was on Netflix and there was this movie "Moneyball", it's a few years old... it's about this guy Billy Beane... anyway it blew my mind so I got these books by this other guy Bill James. This Bill James guy is like from my generation, but he was all into numbers and s***. Anyway I've been up 72 hours straight reading this s***. NOBODY f***ING TOLD ME ABOUT THIS BEFORE?? I'M AN ACCOUNTANT FOR CHRIST SAKES!! I LOVE THIS KIND OF s***! NUMBERS!! NOBODY BOTHERED TO TELL ME?? THAT'S YOUR f***ING JOB FOLKS!! TELL ME THE s*** THAT'S GOING ON! Sorry for the rage, but you guys really should of told about this 25 years ago. Anyway all this stuff got me to thinkiing. This on base percentage is pretty important right?? And the platoons. Left handed hitters hit better against righties. And defense, the scouts over rate it at times. So what about this... Lawrie shifts to second against righties to let Francisco play?? What do you guys think?? Gibby??? AA??? Not a bad idea for a washed up accountant I say."

- Hiring Gibby - Francisco (so far) - Stroman?? - Kawasaki. I like the Lawrie/Francisco/Tolleson platoon. I like the offense this year. You mention most of the big positive AA moves, Bautista and EE etc.. Those were good.

I am aware that he was playing in Seattle. I wasn't aware that literally nobody hit well there. Ichiro hit .370 and set an all time hits record and won some batting titles. Boone and Edgar Martinez and John Olerud had good years. A-Rod propelled hit lifetime earnings towards 1/2 a billion with a good year there. They've had bad teams the last few years, which when combined with the park makes the effect seem more dramatic. The park dings guys by 10% or so... 5% assuming they hit fine on the road. So a guy with 200 hits will get 190, that kind of thing. Advanced stats come in handy here. Fangraphs have Beltres wRC+ hovering between 90-110 in his first 5 LA years. Up to 161 in the big LA year. Between 90 and 110 in his Seattle years. Between 135 and 142 in his Boston/Texas years. As far as I can see the pattern holds even factoring in the Seattle park factor.

There are always semantical questions with this question. Ceiling is by definition the highest level he could reach. Is he going to be Ted Williams?? No. Could he struggle about so/so for many years and all of a sudden go nuts at 29 and have a great 30s?? Sure. We're watching Bautista and EE do it. His ceiling is still Adrian Beltre. He is actually very similiar to Beltre. Beltre had similar numbers (with better health) through age 24. Exploded on the league at 25 with an MVP like year. Then went back to being so/so (with WAR boosted by D) for 5 or 6 years. Then all of a sudden at 31 he puts up a run of real nice seasons.

In the past I've posted endlessly about the importance of on base percentage and my hate of Joe Carter. I was just being silly playing along with the OP.

agreed. I was just playing along with the OP.

agreed. I was just curious how the OP would respond.

Here is another factor to consider. A lot of Pitchers pitch to the score. So Lind is probably padding his OPS in 6-0 games when a pitcher is willing to pitch to the score.

Situation a) team hits for .800 OPS but .190 with runners in scoring position and strike out in sac fly situations. Situation team hits for .700 OPS but .320 with runners in scoring position and steal bases and do sac flys. Have the stats guys really thought this out?

Busy today didn't get a chance to watch. Just calmly saw the score appear on my phone. Calmly posting on the board a bit, backing up my boy the_dh with some well thought arguments on ops vs. true produciton. Keep calm my friends.