Olerud363

His homer rate is really low. I would think for a "s***** control prospect" that's atleast a good sign. As per comparison Josh Towers gave up 12, 26 and 17 homers in his 3 full (a, aa, and aaa) minor league seasons. Towers ERA was a lot higher as well. Just saying that a lot times Josh Towers comes to mind when I think about these s***** control pitchers who dominate the minor leagues. But this guy looks different. He's a groundballer I assume?

I think a strong right handed hitter has a few fly balls become doubles... and a few homeruns become singles off the wall. I think the park factor is average. What's the right handed hitters park factor for Fenway??

But Ichiro (in prime) decided to hit .370 with 250 hits. He was a unique player. His numbers might of looked more like Matsui's if he wanted to hit for power in games.

He is reverend Tim Tom from the middle, or maybe Tim Tom's younger brother. "So, you’re in a rough patch. You know who was also in a rough patch? Jesus. He was dead. And then, three days later, he was rocking out, resurrection style."

JSFIP - so glad to hear from you. You have always been a voice of reason in this wilderness. You kept us sane after that first horrible game so long ago in Tampa Bay. But it hasn't turned out all roses... do you still believe in this team?? It ain't over yet... but it's getting close. Back to topic. I do not believe that the regulars on this forum think Alex Gordon is better then Mike Trout. I haven't followed such a debate closely but I'd suspect the great minds of this forum would appreciate that Trout is better and look closely at the WAR formula to see what is going on. I will say this. If Gordon is positive on defense and Trout negative it could make the difference. Let's say Trout is 2 wins better on O... But Gordon is 1.5+ on D, and Trout is 1.5 negative on D. That is 3 wins right there. While it might seem antituitive it happens. Over 162 games guys can cost a team (or gain a team) a win or two on D... Hopefully everybody has provided you with the level of respectful debate you deserve. All the best.

Hi KingKat I'm not sure either of these cases have anything to do with "the market". Both are either a scouting failure or bad luck. David Cooper was envisioned to be a good line drive hitter. John Olerud lite. Kind of a .290 .350 .450 guy with low strike-outs. He struggled in aa then got a pretty bad injury. D.J. Davis was envisioned to be a Devon White... not even close. So the 1992/1993 Jays hit paydirt with all kinds of different players... the unathletic hitter (Olerud), the tools guy (Devon White), the old professional hitter (Winfield/Molitor). The young "franchise" (Alomar). Flash forward to 2010ish Snider, Cooper, Gose, Davis, the slop ballers, Josh Johnson, Emilio, even Hech... and maybe most all Lawrie (2010s version of "franchise"). Different types of players... they all missed for some reason.

yeah. The Rogers suits and Beeston view AA as a youthful whiz kid modern GM. So if AA doesn't work the next guy hired by Beeston will be "old school".

Do you mean was this me calling?? No. I've never called the Mike Wilner show.

While we're at it. Wilner destroyed some poor guy on Jays talk after the victory Saturday. The guy suggested gettting younger and Wilner acted as if the guy was the biggest idiot ever. Something like some reasonable guy - we could trade Bautista and get younger. Wilner - (smug pause) Really? (smug pause) (more smug pause) You want to trade Jose Bautista? OK... (smug pause, smug tone increases). No (phony assertiveness). You don't do that. You don't trade Jose Bautista when you are in a pennant race. some reasonable guy - I don't mean this year. If it doesn't work out this year and we are looking to get younger for next year. Wilner - (smug pause) No (phony assertiveness). You want to add to guys like Jose Bautista in the off season. some reasonable guy - But the Rays traded David Price. Wilner - Completely different. Tampa Bay is a last place team. The Blue Jays are in a pennant race here. some reasonable guy - (cut off doesn't get to talk any more) Wilner - This is unbelievable. The Blue Jays are in a pennant race and these guys want to trade Jose Bautista. Tampa Bay?? They are in a different situation. The Jays are in a pennant race. We're not trading Jose Bautista. Not now, not in the offseason. Unbelievable! (smugness, arrogance)

Realistically all we will get is... 1. Gibby fired and shamed, Beeston shifts full blame to Gibby. 2. Beeston orchestrates his own retirement. In Beeston's mind it will be the equivalent of the Jeter retirement. Honor, prestige, maybe a Beeston commericial or two. 3. AA is named president. There are guys in Rogers who know Beeston is an idiot but they follow the honorable code of the suit. Protect your friends at all times, destroy the common man, keep him in his place. If they acknowledge Beeston is a f***-up, then the commoners might switch cable companies. A revolution might happen. At this point it is all about protecting Beeston and keeping the common man in his lowly place.

I'm more angry than embarrassed. On the day Tampa Bay passes us I'd like them to remove Beeston's number from the level of excellence... and fire him. That would make the season worth while. Fire Beeston and only Beeston. Make the point very clear. Remove his name from the level of excellence. AA - stays with heavy adult supervision. Gibby - 3 year contract. Beeston - fired and shamed.

That f***ing Olerud wasn't pulling the ball, was f***ing disobedient, was taking walks and clogging the godamn bases. f***ing Joe Carter needed a spot to play. If Olerud stayed with the team and played every day in 98 and 99 and Delgado DH'd I beleive that would of given the Jays a playoff spot in 98 and 99. In 98 Canseco provided 1.5 WAR as DH (even with 46 homers!)... Olerud was at 7 WAR or so. In 99 they didn't have a real dh.

This thread is getting my Beeston hate going again. There is no one I despise more (that I don't know). A lot of suits hate numbers... they get high up in an organization by defining their own reality. To Beeston reality is track teams, and rbis, and Cito Gaston, and pulling the ball, and character, and vets. He ignores numbers... hates them. Hates the greasy little monkeys that play with numbers. If you like numbers Beeston want to fire you... the guy is insane. AA is probably scared of him. Keep in mind Beeston is on a few boards... likes the loblaws board. So if you work for loblaws DON'T use numbers... if you have some data showing the decadent will outsell the new cookie do not use these numbers.. just mentione the decadent is a veteran cookie.

That trade explains everything up to this day. Cito didn't like Olerud. He thought he was a platoon player. The only reason he got 550 at bats in 1993 was that he was hitting .400 until August. By 1996 he occasionally had to sit against righties for Jacob Brumfield and didn't get 400 at bats. Wait a minute I must be lying here?? OK it's not like he sat for Brumfield 40 times, maybe 3 or 4. And he did get 398 at bats (almost 400!). But Cito hated Olerud because he got on base and didn't pull the ball. Beeston loved Cito. It just shows the character of the people involved. Olerud was a class act and they bullied him and brought his value to 0... they did it because they are arrogant and didn't care about the team, just about their own egos (listen to me, pull the f***ing ball and don't clog the f***ing bases!!)

Switching Clemens and Wells didn't make any difference... Clemens had a couple of down years in 1999 and 2000 before "rejuvinating". Wells won 37 games. A 4something era was actually good in late 90s. You never know exactly what would of happened.... I suppose Clemens may have pitched better in Toronto in 1999 and 2000... maybe he went off roids for a couple of years.

He atleast admits that perhaps they lose because of "decisions we made" and "injureis" The big thing is injuries. But the two go hand in hand (they decided to acquire guys who miss 40 games a year. I think they are kind of getting it... maybe. I think AA acknowledged they need depth to back up these guys. If Bautista, Reyes, Rasmus, EE, Lind and Lawrie average 115 games in 2013 they'll average 115 in 2014, and 115 in 2015. No one will be able to predict exactly what injuries will occur or to who, but you can predict the average number of games played by these 6.

You really think he sucks?? Looks like Reed Johnson 2.0. Gose might provide more value with his D.

Yes. And that is what the formula is supposed to tell you. The only thing I disagree with is the way that lefthanded hitters and right handed hitters are handled differently. For righties you need twice as many at bats to make a conclusion about the split... this is because righties apparently have less of a platoon split. but I don't know if they considered the fact that righties who have a platoon split and don't mash are not in the sample.

This assumes that you believe the 2200 number. Why do righties have less variation?? It may be because righties with large splits are eliminated from the population while lefties are not. A righty who hits .220/.280 won't ever be in the population, while a lefty might. So only good guys like David Wright (.280 .340) make it.

David Wright splits vs. lefties?? Do you believe it or do they need to be regressed?? I'd buy that he has to be regressed a bit. But he's not at 2500 plate appearances vs. lefties yet. Most players will never get there.

If he amassed 2500 plate appearances against lefties you still wouldn't believe the split?? I'm not talking just 2500 plate appearances "overall", but 7000 or 8000 or whatever overall and 2500 against lefties. So we are talking a complete career for a very good player basically. If he amassed 2500 plate appearances and hit .330 .370 .500 against lefties I'd beleive it. If that happened he wouldn't hit .220 against righties... that;s the number that would normallize. He'd hit .280 or something against righties.

I think we agree... I said if he did it over 2500 at bats I'd believe. 500 I'll say maybe... that doesn't mean I think he'll be Barry Bonds against lefties... just that I start paying attention. At 70 at bats I don't even care.

I'm just not sure there is ever a huge need to go to advanced stats... they give a slight advantage. But the big thing is just understanding the concepts. I think it is possible to explain these things in one sentence.

I'm actually not big on that kind of stuff. Just don't that much time to absorb it. My philosaphy (as I mentioned in the post above) 100 at bats - who the hell knows 500 at bats - maybe 2500 at bats - now I trust it But it becomes hard to get 2500 at bats for obscure splits.

And just to clarify .900 ops in 100 at bats -- who the hell knows how good he really is. .900 ops in 500 at bats -- He is probably decent, but not enough evidence to say he is truly a .900 OPS guy. .900 ops in 2500 at bats -- at this point he is very likely a .900 OPS guy. Now in this case it will take a while to accumulate 2500 at bats against lefties. But another piece of evidence is putrid performance against righties. There is some correaltion, guys don't ussually have that big of a platoon split. So it indicates the lefty platoon data may not be accurate.