Olerud363

sorry, it was directed to this guy who was once known as 'old skool', then 'cooler heads prevail', then 'scientific reason'. When everybody hated Cito this guy went on and on about how great Cito was and how everybody was an idiot. When everybody thought the Jays would win 82 last year (even when they were hot people said "calm down it's an 82 win team") old skool went nuts telling us the Jays would win 95. Then he quit the board after the Jays went back to .500. Now he is back as "scientific reason"

You can't think about it that way. You have to look at averages and projections. Lester is about a 2-2.5 win upgrade over Happ. Otherwise you could say Nick Markakis at his best is 7.5 WAR and Saunders 2 WAR so getting Nick Markakis would be a huge boost. Because Lester is coming off a good season there is also a tendency to over-rate him. Liriano, McCarthy, and a few others would be better even though they are not "aces!" Barry Zito looked like Lester once

Sorry if I seem rude. It is only directed at one guy. The "scientificreason" poster is a guy who has posted for a long time under different names. "Old Skool" and "Cooler Heads Prevail". He sort of trolls people... He acts like he's this old school expert and knows 100% what is right for the Jays... all other opinions are just new-fangled hogwash. Last May when the Jays were hot he guaranteed 95 wins... then I think even as they cooled off he guaranteed 90. A bunch of people stuck with predictions in the low 80s... and were proven right. So the guy has a history and even though his comments may seem innocent, or at least not worthy of this much anger... believe me he is trying to get under certain people's skin... and succeeding I guess.

What would it take to get him??? And if we did have parts Oakland wanted for Moss wouldn't they have been to work that out in an expanded Donaldson trade?? btw Moss was nothing at age 28... kind of like Smoak and Saunders are... so maybe the Jays are actually being smart here and trying to find the next Brandon Moss?? That being said I wouldn't mind adding him if the price was right. But what would the price be???

What the hell is wrong with people???? This is very simple. Score runs. Prevent runs. If you are not good at Logic or math then ask people who are. For example "Hello, my name is old skool and I am a little disabled in terms of thinking. I have a question for those who think more clearly, perhaps Mr. JFAS, or Mr. Nox or other qualified individual could answer. Now here is my question. I think the Blue Jays need an ace, and I have a candidate in John Lester, or maybe James Shields. Lester would cost 150 million and Shields 100 millions. Is this a good use of funds??? I beleive because they are an "ACE" they will lead to a world series victory. Without an ace the probability of a world series victory is apr. 0.000%. With the Ace it rises to 70.8%. Is my thinking sound??? Thank you."

No runs are runs. There is nothing wrong with swinging for the fences. Most high homer teams also have good on base percentage. 2009 Yankees - 244 HOMERZZZZ 915 runs 663 walks (world series champions) 2010 Blue Jays - 256 HOMERZZZZ 755 runs 471 walks As an independent variable homerzz are good. As long as the overlall approach is sound. Blue Jays high homer teams have been bad because they were to aggressive. Patient teams hit Hommmerzzz too. And that combination is good. Homerzzzz are good as long as the team is not run by an idiot manager and hitting coach who want a .300 team on base percentage instead of .340

The Blue Jays rarely have a good offense. 2014 4th in runs 2013 8th in runs 2012 7th in runs 2011 6th in runs 2010 6th in runs We are OK. Not great. Ussually a tad above average. People think it is a good offense because of the HOMMMERZZZZ...

You are a dangerous individual because you talk about science and logical falicy's but know nothing of science and logical falicies. You are a mean spirited charlaton who is actually against science, and logic and thinking. You've repeatedly made outrageous statements like "we can get to the playoffs but need an ace to win". We have Dickey, Bheurle, Hutchison, Stroman and the upside of Norris and Sanchez and an improved defense. There is every possibility that this staff could be very good. We could get Jon Lester as he would be your "ACE"... but Oakland tried that... why didn't they win?? LA had Kershaw and Grienke. Nobody is more of an ace then Kershaw. He is worth a lot. Grienke is about the same as Bumgarner. LA had a super-off-the-charts legendary ACE... backed up by another regular ACE. But they did not win.

2008 Phillies, 2009 Yankees, 2011 Cardinals. 2011 cardinals were first in offense. Their pitching staff was led by a past prime Chris Carpenter 11-9 3.45, other notables Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook. They were first in the league in runs despite having no .330 hitters. 2013 Red Sox, OK pitching, but an offense first team. 2006 Cardinals - Carpenter was good... behind him they had crap.

You're a certified idiot troll. did 1993 not happened?? Did you f***ing erase a year??? That is scary s***. Erasing reality is a sign of a serious personality disorder. I hope you are getting psychiatric help so you don't hurt anybody. Pat Hentgen 112 era + was NOTHING going into the season. Stroman or even Sanchez could equal or surpass him. Juan Guzman 109 era + walked 100 -- Dickey could do this. Dave Stewart - old and not to much Todd Stottlemyer - s*** Jack morris - shittier REALITY 1993 - Jays starters are s*** and have 4.63 era. OLD SKOOL - I AM GOD. I DEFINE REALITY. f*** THE WORLD. STARTERS! STARTERS! STARTERS! p.s. I'd be happier if we got another starter. Mike Trout would help more. Just hate these "only one way to win and it's my way idiots"

Does scientificreason=oldskool=coolerheadsprevail?? What a bunch of ********. Teams win for lots of reason. The last time I saw my team win a world series they had Todd Stottlemyer, the ghost of Dave Stewart, and Juan Guzman (who walked 100 that year), Pat Hentgen too I guess. But he wasn't that good... he went 19-9 because the Jays scored lots of runs. That year the white sox had the Cy Young award winner, and two other good starting pitchers. Clearly better then Toronto's. Yet Toronto won the ALCS. What a bunch of ********. Madison Bumgarner isn't quite an ace... he's good. But given the lower offense and his park he isn't an ace. Not like Clayton Kershaw anyway. Clayton Kershaw is an ace. But Bumgarner was awesome in the playoffs. Cause he has "the clutch" or something. What if Stroman has the "clutch"??? That would mean WORLD SERIES. So f*** this stupid scientificreason and his "aces" theory. THAT IS COMPLETELY UNSCIENTIFIC. I am going with the scientific "clutch" theory, and I think Stroman might have "the clutch", which would mean a world series victory even if Stroman isn't an ace!!! (Sorry about the typos, grammer and spelling, worse then even my usual, don't really have time for this right now... but that post by scientificreason got me going).

I was talkin to the old skool boys like Cito and the Beest and they said it's all about Homerzzz and the ribizzzz. We looked it up. Josh Donaldson 29 homerrrzzz 98 rbizzzz Pablo Sandovol 16 andz 73. Then I talked to some of the eggheads and they said Donaldson has major WARZZZZ. Like almost as many as Mike Trouts. Then I talked to the weight watchers people. And they said Donaldson didn't come over for a consultation but the Panda-bear did. He is a fat man. 3/3 of all different types of expertzzz agree Donaldson is better. Who is this Bob Ryan anyway?? Doesn't he talk to the experts.

Even using OPS gets you almost there _most_ of the time. Edwin .830ish career, Martin .750ish career. That tells the story. If it was closer the advanced stats are useful to determine who is better. Hitting is on base + power adjusted for park and era. Sounds like the guy you were replying to forgot the power part.

http://www.drunkjaysfans.com ... goes to a silly add site but drunkjaysfans.com goes to AndrewStoeten.com I'm giving this to much attention.... for some reason it fascinates me that he might lose his name. The name was the best thing he had. No casuals will remember AndrewStoeten.com... but they would remember drunkjaysfans.com

And it also would be hilarious if the score just didn't give it back to him. Might indicate there is more to the story. If they had to just let an irrelevant blogger go they'd just give him his name back... not sell it for nothing to a sleezy domain collector.... unless they wanted to screw him. Maybe he did something they didn't like?

I saw that thread. There was a little laughing at Stoeten for the "AndrewStoeten.com" Web urls are valuable. Drunkjayfans.com was worth something. My wife knows what that is... (she doesn't know bluejaysmessageboard.com). It's actually pretty catchy. http://www.drunkjayfans.com doesn't work either. Anyway it would be a huge screw up if Stoeten actually lost his web domain name. It's like blogging 101. If you actually want to make a living out of it you need to keep the rights to your catchy name no matter what!

http://www.drunkjaysfans.com was this it?? It wasn't .org or anything?? Looks like the Score sold it or just let the domain expire... and Stoeten didn't buy it back???? or did I get the address wrong somehow?? lol.. maybe.

This doesn't make sense?? If true why would it matter where you played anybody?? As they are put in more difficult positions players will reach a point where they lose more in defensive value then they gain in offensive. So there are players who would be 2 wins in cf but 3 wins in lf. There might be an argument to be made that in this individual case Fowler's skill set doesn't play in lf either. I don't know. But in general players do have a position where there contributions are optimized.

He played it badly. Though drunkjaysfans.com does point to andrewstoeten.com now. Why bother with andrewstoeten.com?? Keep the Drunk Jays fans brand. Nobody would even realize that he got fired. Just claim mutual decision not to renew the contract. "My name is Andrew Stoeten. I have come to a big decision. I have decided to go on my own again so I can say whatever I want about that f*** for brains Beeston. Did I just call Beeston a f*** for brains?? I did... but I didn't really mean it... he's not really a f*** for brains. I mean sometimes he is... but baseball is hard. And you guys know Beeston and Rogers didn't own the Score internet property anyway. But never the less I'm on my own again. Which I think will be a good thing." I guess he doesn't own the copyright to Drunk Jays Fans name... so even though they redirected the url there he can't brand as DJF.

According to his blog drunkjaysfans.com will point to andrewstoeten.com "soon". That doesn't mean he owns it. Maybe that is why he has to suck up to them for a while (thanks for the opportunity coorporate dudes, it was nice to walk among the better people for a couple years! what an opportunity!). If he is not nice to them they will point it back to themselves. The leaders of this board should attempt to buy drunkjaysfans.com and point it here.

So calling 60% of your audience insuffferable sour pusses is not a good long term strategy?? Sad to see. But a lesson to those who sell out. The ones you sell out to you don't care about you and won't always give you shiny objects. There will always be a place to those who emphasize with the commoners... but Stoeten, like Wilner sold his soul to the Beest... And of course I know Roger's did not own the Score... but all the same Stoeten sold out to the culture that allowed the Beest to rise. ' Maybe Moogy does = Stoeten??? He just was trolling us as Moogy because he was sad the coorporate bros rejected him??

I guess I'm just concerned about the DH spot. It seems to me that Dirks+Francisco or something could be a negative as well.

Normal Team - assume there is some reasonable floor (like 1 WAR) to all positions and start improving Roster with that assumption. Jays - Assume Ryan Goins will play 155 games and structure offseason to prevent that. Even if we have to trade everything for Brandon Phillips it is so much better than Ryan Goins that it will be worth it just to help everybody's mental health.

This is assuming that we have a 1 win DH (who??) and that Ryan Goins will be the second basemen instead of Kawasaki (at 0.5 wins or so). And that Phillips and VMart are the same. If you change assumptions slightly. VMart 3 WINS + Kawasaki 0.5 wins = 3.5 Wins Phillips 2 WINS + DH 0.5 wins =2.5 wind So the math is a bit fuzzy too. I don't know. Maybe I'm the one who's gone all "old school". And my memories are biasing me. Anyone who watched Winfield and then Molitor solidify the DH spot in 92 and 93 has fond memories of the the professional hitter DH. Just seems that you get that player. Hit them 3rd or 4th the entire year. Score some runs then figure the rest out later. Fan Graphs has Winfield at 3.8 and Molitor at 4.8 in 92 and 93. But the expectation is VMart would only be 2.5?? Molitor and Winfield played above expectation I guess.

I'm just pointing that the formulas for WAR and stuff ready include your arguments. So the decision between Martinez and say Brandon Phillips wouldn't be "need" it would be based on the expected wins each add to the team. Ryan Goins (.200 hitter with + defense) might be bad. But our projected DH (? who again) might be equally bad in terms of a DH. The decision for player A or player B should be based on additional wins not "need". If we had a 4 win outfielder it wouldn't be a position of need. But if the opportunity came to replace that guy with Mike Trout it would be a better move then improving a position of "need" by a win or two.