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Olerud363

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Everything posted by Olerud363

  1. Olerud363
    I was just getting into baseball in the late 80s... but I remember hearing about Martinez even before he established himself in the majors. He played in Calgary I don't remember all the details, so a quick look at bbref shows: It looks like he struggled in double a as a 22 and 23 year old, hitting .260 with no power (but lots of walks) He creamed the PCL in Calgary as a 24, 25, and 26 year old. I would suspect he was viewed much like David Cooper... guy who struggled, repeated double a, and didn't hit until he got to the PCL. So he wasn't handed a job right away. Too bad Cooper wrecked his Neck, would of been interesting to see what he could of done with 500 at bats.
  2. Olerud363
    If Travis is healthy and for real that would be huge... 1. He plays a lead off type position 2. He is the right size for a lead off hitter Even if he hit like 50 homeruns they could still hit him lead off... like brady anderson. You can't hit the others lead off -- Don't play lead off positions except Tulo -- and Tulo is too tall and allready struggled in lead off joking by the way
  3. Olerud363
    Makes sense. It doesn't seem that Olerud could make up that much on defense... up to 20 runs a year according to the stats.
  4. Olerud363
    Did you follow the Jays closely those years?? In general people knew how valuable Olerud was... there was a lot of controversey. Gaston tried to change his swing, make him more aggressive, and pull the ball. I think it hurt his numbers a bit. I think the platooning hit his confidence.
  5. Olerud363
    They were both first basemen... do you think the issue in WAR effected the difference between them? Just curious.
  6. Olerud363
    There is measurement noise and physical noise measurement noise - the accuracy of the measurement physical noise - the variation of the true value from it's long term mean I think most people were arguing that the difference between Donaldson and Trout 2015 could be measurement noise, in defense, park factors, positional adjustment, baserunning, etc. In terms of physical noise... most people realize Donaldson's season was positive noise. Donaldson's season was above his long term mean. Trout's was right at his long term mean.
  7. Olerud363
    I was an avid fan 95-97 and a lot of weird things happened. Cito played Jacob Brumfield for Olerud against righties, He played Ruben Sierra instead of Green. There was controversy about it. Cito thought other people were racists and it may have affected his decisions. He thought the media was racist, he thought the game was racist... In Cito's mind Jacob Brumfield was a great player who was never given a chance, Sierra was being driven out of the game early. It wasn't just black guys... He hit Kevin Millar clean up. I believe he even hit a washed up Pat Tabler clean up. His decisions weren't random. Cito had this idea that certain guys had paid their dues and earned playing time... justified or not. It wasn't always a disaster, he gave Marco Scutaro, Adam Lind and Jose Bautista full time gigs. That worked out pretty well.
  8. Olerud363
    What the hell is wrong with you?? Are you messed up or something?? It's well known Cito had bad racial experiences early in his career... What the hell is wrong with this board. http://articles.latimes.com/1992-10-24/sports/sp-649_1_gaston YO BRO YOU MESSED UP CITO NEVER HAD NO PROB WITH RACE... NEVER HAPPENED PRO. YOU PULLED OUT O YOU RECTUM
  9. Olerud363
    I think Cito had some real bad experiences as a young guy... horrible racist stuff. It affected him deeply and influenced a lot of his decisions. Later in his career he was made a platoon player after one big season. A right handed platoon hitter... eventually got released, career fizzled out before he thought it should of. So in the end he had a warm spot for players he thought weren't given respect. Guys like Carter, White, Jake Brumfield. Not only black guys, he also gave way to much time to guys like Millar, Pat Tabler, guys who were at the end, but Cito thought it was unfair for it to end, so gave them time in place of the Greens, Oleruds, and Sniders of the world.
  10. Olerud363
    hamoc > hamco
  11. Olerud363
    It was a complicated and RESPECTFUL platoon. Molitor 6th against righties, Alomar 6th against lefties.. so Molitor ended up at 6th the most. http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TOR/TOR199310230.shtml You do not understand the mind of Cito Gaston... Under no circumstances were Carter and or White to be disrespected, even if it resulted in the goofiest platoon in history.
  12. Olerud363
    It's just that Olerud, Alomar, Molitor and then Henderson were so great.. (Henderson's small split with the Jays not withstanding). If they had gone Alomar, Olerud, Molitor, Carter, White.... then put everyone back a step when Henderson arrived, Carter might of driven in 150 and white 100. The RBIZZZ could of earned them a little more money given in 1993 rbbizz were still loved a bit more. Instead Carter and White lost 20 rbizzz each cuzz they needed RESPECTS Priorities 1993 1. RESPPECTS 2. Personal stats and winning Yeah they won the World Series... but the subsequent 5 years were an absolute mess
  13. Olerud363
    No manager would have hit White 9th, no manager would of hit him second. 29/30 managers in 93 would of gone Henderson, Alomar, Molitor, Olerud, Carter, White, Fernandez, Sprague, Borders. Cito is the only manager in 93 that played favourites and gave inferior hitters cushy lineup spots. You don't need advanced stats to figure out Henderson, Alomar, Molitor and Olerud need to be at the top. Subsequently platooning Olerud after an 8 WAR season was indefensible, statistically, ethically, and morally. It was an insult to fans everywhere and set the franchise back years. John Olerud 1993 - Jays all time batting champ and second best overall season ever (behind Donaldson) John Olerud 1998 - Mets all time batting champ and second best overall season ever (behind one of David Wrights) In between these two great 8 WAR seasons, Cito platooned Olerud, sat him against a righty for Jake Brumfield and drove him out of town because of Cito's stubborness, cruelty, and insecurities. There is a reason Cito never got a job anywhere else.
  14. Olerud363
    .420 .340 .400 .310 .470 .400 .360 .300 .280 Those are the approximate on base percentages. I am guessing the best lineup statistically would of been Henderson Olerud Molitor Alomar Fernandez White Carter Sprague Borders Weird lineup -- but I bet it would of scored the most runs... keep in mind Olerud had a .470 on base percentage... had the second best overall season in Jays history that year (behind Donaldson this year)
  15. Olerud363
    We need an ace above anythinge else. I have done a very good statistical analsyis of K.C. as they marched to their championship. Here are the life time playoff records of each K.C. starter. Johny Cueto - 2-3 5.35 Edinson Volquez - 1-4 5.35 Yordano (Ace) Ventura - 1-2 4.66 Chris Young - 2-0 2.01 It is incredible -- you are 100% correct. K.C. became champions because they had an ace. Chris Young -- ace like numbers without a doubt. The others are quite mediocre (life time playoff record). But Chris Young was the ace they needed. So the question is this: How do we get an ace like Chris Young?? How indeed?? Why not sign or trade for him?? What is his contract status?? Perhaps the others have not yet recognized that he is the ace they need and he will be available for below market rates???
  16. Olerud363
    We had David Price... he led the league in ERA... he has won a Cy Young. In the playoff games that he started we went 0-3. We need better then Price. Kershaw also has not led his team to the playoff world series victories that we all dream of. The only answer is this. To win we need an ace. Price and Kershaw are not real aces. I have two solutions. 1. Find the next Sidd Finch. 2. Find the next Jack Morris. these are the ones we need. They both would contribute in different ways. Price is a false ace. We need a real one. A finch like pitcher would give up no runs, not even contact, this is the ace we need for victory. A morris like pitcher would give up 3.5 runs a game. More than Price... but he only give up runs when ahead 10-0 and pitch shut outs when we need.
  17. Olerud363
    NJH - the above is drivel (4 words) GD - YO BRO, NJH explained it all (6 words)
  18. Olerud363
    Very interesting. Apparently some questions aren't answered on this thread... What is the purpose of it again?? from fangraphs - "In reality, while plate appearances will obviously dovetail pretty closely with defensive chances, it’s not an exact match." Looking at basic range factors there are about 20-25% more plays in center then left... For an average defender it shouldn't matter if they play left of center An above defender should be more valuable in center (because they are getting more chances) A below average defender (Dexter Fowler, as he looked after 2014) should do less damage in left (less chance to screw up) Sorry for using to many words -- the counter point is this YO BRO 2 WAR LEFT FIELDER = 2 WAR CENTER FIELDER The great minds have spoken. This is the YO-BRO thead... show your genius in 8 words or less.... other wise do not speak
  19. Olerud363
    People really overestimate their ability to predict the future based on the recent past. I was talking to my Mets fan friend about the Series... he believes that a key reason they lost was because D'Arnaud can't throw. The royals stole a few key bases, and it wasn't close. He doesn't believe D'Arnaud can stick at catcher. Then when I checked MLB trade rumours they were allready speculating the Mets want D'Arnaud to play a second position. So all of a sudden in the space of two hours I'm thinking, OK, D'arnaud isn't a perrenial 5 WAR all star catcher after all. Anyway point is things can change fast. Norris looked like a total stud in 2014, then lost 4 strikeouts a game, then we find out he had a cancer scare which apparently was curable by surgery. Did the cancer scare effect his 2015?? Things can change fast, this time next year maybe Norris and Boyd look better then Syndergard and D'arnaud... probably not, but who knows.
  20. Olerud363
    He's striking out less that is for sure. And he's worth the same as he was in 2012 when he hit 27 homers. However he walked 91 times as a 20 year old. He walks less then he did at 20. 40 extra base hits in 2014, 50 in 2015. Not a lot really.
  21. Olerud363
    Maybe a bad idea... naively I figure someone just has to yell at Heyward until he starts cranking a few more balls over the fence... seems Cito would be that guy... What is the issue with Heyward anyway? To many ground balls?? How does a guy that size have the same power numbers as Kevin Pillar?? He really does have the same power numbers as Kevin Pillar ~ 30 doubles, 12 homers in 570 at bats the last 2 years
  22. Olerud363
    He's about the same age, and has been worth about the same as Stanton according to WAR. It's hard to know if the defense is measured accurately. I hate to say it but he seems like the kind of guy I'd expose to Cito Gaston. Cito would flip at the thought of a guy that big hitting 13 homeruns.
  23. Olerud363
    His numbers don't look like he has a terrible swing. He struck out less then 100 times the last couple of years. The only problem is he hits about half as many homeruns as you'd expect from a guy 6'5" 250. His first three years he was exactly where you'd expect. Then he lost half his homeruns... not sure what happened.
  24. Olerud363
    If I have the story right Francona was only hired to listen to Epstein and Henry. Before game 7 of the 2003 ALCS Grady Little was given detailed instructions on when to pull Pedro given pitch count, and/or game situation. He didn't listen and was fired... he apparently even mentioned it in the post game interview... "I might of just gotten fired". Enter Francona after that. So I guess Francona is willing to take direction and instruction from above... which is not a bad thing. If Gibbons can do that as well, then Gibbons should be manager.
  25. Olerud363
    K.C. had two players (Zobrist and Gordon) play every game in the playoffs that missed significant time in the regular season. (Zobrist was a late addition) Paulo Orlando (.269 on base) and Infante (.234 on base) took a lot of the at bats before Zobrist and Gordon become regulars. The playoff team was a different team then the regular season team was. If Zobrist and Gordon were there for the entire year they would of walked 80 more times or so then Orlando and Infante. a) make a pretty good team that would hit for average, walk an average amount, and score runs. have your backups get on base at a .250 rate c) just for giggles give too many at bats to .280ish on base percentage guys. d) the team on base percentage will drop from "really good" to "just above average" e) get he high on base percentage players back for playoffs, and get on base more than your opponent in every series. f) FINALLY AFTER ALL THESE YEARS PROVE BILLY BEAN WRONG!!!
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