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Olerud363

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Everything posted by Olerud363

  1. Olerud363
    Sorry, I've been distracted with my (adopted) countries journey into Trumpland and have not given this fine community the attention it deserves, so I wasn't aware of the full nature of the discussion (there is a fine political thread on the OT, which perhaps in retrospect would of been fun to follow Nov8 through early Nov9). Anyway... my back of the napkin calculation says they are tied according to fwar Olerud is the better talent, as Jays they are equal, because Cito is a bad man. Seriously Cito is worse than Trump, John Boehner and Bob McCowan, both talk about Cruz/Cito, the same way, as if they are some sort of devil creature far worse than anything else imaginable.
  2. Olerud363
    Do you mean as a Jay or overall Overall Olerud's best 5 seasons are 8.1, 8.1, 5.8, 4.6, 4.5 EEs are 4.5, 4.3, 4.0, 3.9, 3.6 Olerud's 5th best season is a about the same as EEs best. Olerud lost several prime years to 70% playing time and being told 'pull dat ball' Olerud sat for Jacob Brumfield against righthanders occasionally in 96. In 96 he didn't get 400 at bats. Olerud as a Jay had 500 at bats once... once... once... What was done to Olerud started the long decay of our society that led to Donald Trump (or if you like Donald Trump, you can say that Liberals did not understand Olerud, just as they did not understand Trump).
  3. Olerud363
    That's a great point... I forgot that Adam Lind had some really bad seasons, and bounced back. Given more chances because he had gaurenteed money.... Obviously Smoak has never really had a good season, but I think he could still provide something. Just saying there is a chance that the contract will still provide some value. Lind bounced back after people thought he wouldn't.
  4. Olerud363
    Never had much of a problem with him... have had a tussle or two but who hasn't.
  5. Olerud363
    Where is Grant right now. He's never been wrong, and now he is... or maybe not here is his official statement. "I said the playoffs are a crapshoot and you know full well this series proved my point. Regular season records don't mean anything in the playoffs. If they did Cubs would of won in 5. Instead there was no difference at all between the two teams. If you can't acknowledge that you're just being stubborn."
  6. Olerud363
    Also I will have you know That I know someone who dated Todd's Sister and he was nice to him he didn't ask or care if my friend f***ed his sister he doesn't ask personal questions like that
  7. Olerud363
    I'm not sure why you mentioned Todd's family I'll have you know You think you know so much about blue jays prospects but you are just jealous and really don't know too much so you think you know something but honestly I've just seen that Alford is not that good just like Todd has and you will know that when he doesn't get to mlb
  8. Olerud363
    No they did not. World Series ended 3rdish week of October back then. No wild card games, not even a first round of playoffs.
  9. Olerud363
    Sorry Spanky just cannot see it happening. That would be the end of Grant as we know him... There would be such clear evidence that Grant was wrong on something, that even he couldn't spin it.
  10. Olerud363
    You are again putting yourself in a paradigm where you are smarter than the system... You claim you are logical person. If you are smarter than the system, and you are logical, you should be taking advantage of it, until they change the system. If you are right, logically it makes sense for you to bet huge sums of money on every playoff game over a number of years you will get richer and richer, by the time they find out that someone is gaming them, you will have made multi-millions, eventually you will effect the system, they will change it,
  11. Olerud363
    grant is being an *******. All people said is that the better teams have an advantage... it doesn't mean they win every series. Grant has one goal in life, to make himself look smart, so he cherry picks things he's (randomly) right about and creates a narrative. At the beginning of the playoffs Cubs had a 25% chance of winning the world series, that means that it was always likely that they wouldn't. At the beginning of this series it was about 60%... that means Grant had a 40% chance of being right anyway. Grant will make 20 fearless statements this year, of which he has a coin flip's shot of being right... he will nail 9 You will hear about his wins, over and over.
  12. Olerud363
    You posted a student project. My argument was that the better teams probably still have a better chance of winning. We are talking about teams between .650 and .550 records. The true talent of these teams may be closer. So the better team may have a 55 or 60% chance of winning. That is so close the differences wouldn't apparent to an observer, and would take a really long time to become significant in a test. My frustration was that you just don't understand the difference betweeen a) coin flip something that is close to a coin flip If you are sloppy it is impossible to tell the difference. You are sloppy.
  13. Olerud363
    I'm the first to admit I have no idea if any of this is realistic... just sayin' that super-utils have to come from players looking to re-establish themselves, like you said a guy like Justin Turner is looking for a full time 3rd base job... I think your point about Jose Ramirez was good... Richard Urena, assuming he keeps on developing could play the same role soon. If Urena is doing well at aa, he may be the logical choice to fill in for an injury... then if he does OK he could transition to super-utl. People will slam me, and say "no way bro, Urena is ss of the future, Shapiro will give him as much time as he needs" Shapiro didn't give Jose Ramirez as much time as he needs, he was called up based on need and performance, and he struggled at times, but he is doing fine this year.
  14. Olerud363
    Yo bro. Awesome thread. Easy to digest on my phone!
  15. Olerud363
    If he gets non tendered would he end up having that many options?? Does he care that much anyway?? I don't remember him kicking up a fuss when they moved him to second for some games in 2014.
  16. Olerud363
    If you want a Justin Turner you have to scour the rosters of the other teams, and find one, that isn't Justin Turner yet...
  17. Olerud363
    lol... some 'yo bro' is scrolling down and down on his phone right now looking for some microposts to read...
  18. Olerud363
    Richard Urena would fit, young guy, blocked at short (for now), left handed. Interestingly Shapiro apparently started giving Ramirez time in Cleveland at age 20...
  19. Olerud363
    So.. to make a super-util you probably need to find a player with talent who's career isn't exactly working out at this point. Someone with warts... a Justin Turner, who hasn't become Justin Turner yet, someone who would be happy to play 125 games at first, second, third and even a bit of outfield just to get another chance to make the most of their talent... and of course that someone would also have to be able to play those positions. I hate to say it but Brett Lawrie may be non-tendered.
  20. Olerud363
    I don't have enough understanding of the actual value of players and modern aging curves to answer this. All I can do is bring up anecdotal evidence Alex Rodriguez 31+++ went 9, 6, 4, 4, 4, 2ish... controversey, 2,-1, 0 (released) We allready have what is likely to be the best 2 years... Josh Donaldson 31-40 -- may be 30 WAR but will 15 of it be 31,32??
  21. Olerud363
    Then that's that. I'm glad we have Shapiro... he started late, and that is to bad... we got 29,30,31,32, it would be insande to pay big bucks for 33 to 40.
  22. Olerud363
    If Turner was available for the right price I think this is a good idea, I think he has experience playing 2nd as well, make him super utility Donaldson - 130 games 3rd, 20 games DH... PLEASE DO NOT BE AN ASS ABOUT THESE DAYS OFF DONALDSON... we need you strong in late September October so you can hammer the Bauers and Tomlins of the world. Turner - 30 games 3rd, 30 games 2nd, x games outfield, x games 1b, x games DH Would be awesome to see a super util, probably won't happen
  23. Olerud363
    Cano is a good comparison. Except Cano was a free agent. Currently Donaldson has 2 years control. Something like 4 120, as Spanky suggested seems fair. Cano - they bought 31,32,33,34,35... Donaldson - we allready hav 31,32, we are buying 33,34,35... So there has to be a compromise. If not it is not worth it.
  24. Olerud363
    I honestly have no idea if this trade would work or not. I think most fans are now aware of the WAR leaders like they were on base percentage leader a few years ago, and rbi leaders 20 years ago. So the question is how do Stroman and Eaton project going forward?? A big part of that is how do these heavy-d guys project as they move into their 28,29,30 seasons. Question is also quite relevant for Pillar.
  25. Olerud363
    fWAR is not only publically available info, but almost everyone is aware of it... I know Adam Eaton had 6 WAR. Everyone does this now -- 1. go to google, 2. type Adam Eaton fangraphs It takes 2.5 seconds to know someones WAR. We all now everyone's WAR. Except if we don't know google. The smart guys now have to understand the limititations of WAR, and how WAR evolves with age, and how repeatable the various aspects of WAR are. I am not a smart guy, I don't know the above, if you want to be a smart guy tell us the above.
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