Olerud363

I told you there would be more explosion... I am not a negative poster, just a little over the top either way... it was a crazy 8 game cycle Friday Saturday, 4 implosive events, followed by 4 explosive events. Chances of 4 of either are ~ 1/16 in a day. IIIIEEEE I was at Fenway Park for game 161, and 162... game 161 was the best game I've ever been too live. 1. Implosion showed small signs of ending while I was eating supper at Pizzerio Uno. Yankees started coming back and finished while I was walking to the park. 2. It was not raining, it was misting. It misted for about 48 hours straight. 3. Sat way up in the bleachers... apparently they put a lot of Jays fans up there. 80% Jays fans in our section. 4. Really funny guys, one guy kept yelling "Let us win, it's our last game here before Trumrp builds the wall" 5. Some other nice Jays fans bought everyone hot dogs and icecream. 6. Tying run comes in a balk?? WTF?? 7. Nice job by Cabrerra to get the winning run in. My Dad (very typical casual) says "that guy Cabrerra is showing some potential, where'd they get him from".

The award has traditionally gone to the player who the writers feel single handedly helped his team the most. In a sense they've considered the fact that the 90th win is more important than the 75th. Whether you agree this or not, this is the way it has been done. This year, going by the "traditonal" voting patterns it's close. Trout has been much better than anyone else... but Mookie Betts led his team to a pennant. If Donaldson had a better September he'd of had a shot to repeat. Give him 40 homers, 100++ rbis, the league lead in runs and no "September Swwon". And he would have had a shot in this field.

Here are the scenarios from an emotional point of view.... Quick kick in the nuts - it's over in 31 hours.. Jays eliminated tomorrow at 6:07 EST. Long ball squeeze - it ends with detroit winning against cleveland Monday afternoon. Just sort of what the f*** I'm numb - It extends to a tie breaker for a wild card Monday or Tuesday, Jays lose that... everyone is sort of numb, but feels we kind of got a playoff game. Just sort of what the f*** that was kind of fun - Jays actually make wild card game but lose, after all the s*** that happened it feels like a victory just to say Jays made the playoffs. Holy f*** we are still playing?? How did that happen?? Lets get that bastard Odor!!! - somehow the Jays are in Texas Thursday or Friday Anything I missed??

Especially since a) Detroit got a rain shortened game in Cleveland Detroit got to play scrubs in Cleveland c) Detroit got a rain-out in Cleveland and will be playing more scrubs on Monday.

It's not glaring give the other options. Smoak has been bad, and I give him the benefit of doubt that there is something we don't know about Saunders, like an injury. It's not idea either.

Yes, that genius Cito Gaston sure did a fine job in 2009 -- mutiny The only thing I don't like about Gibbons is his bullpen use. It would be nice to develop a deeper bullpen... and it seems that he has a "one and done" system for new relievers... the moment they mess up a couple games they are gone. Osuna rose to closer, just because he didn't mess up until September, but reverse his Septembers and Aprils and Osuna is starting in Buffalo (not a bad thing) ahhh.. so anyway, my main gripe with Gibbons, is that he hasn't been able to turn guys like Danny Barnes and Shultz into good relievers... because they suck??? Or because he gives up on them to early.

Eiminated by Price, with the pitchers they traded (at least Norris) beating Atlanta over the same weekend.... Price: I will eliminate you Norris: I will help, together we will defeat the team that discarded us. MLB - 3 cheers for Price, 3 cheers for Norris, 3 cheers for Buck Scholwater. Joe Girardi - Hey Chase, looks like the Kings of fun need our help Chase - tell you what skip, I'll try my best, but it's been a long season, and I'm sure tired...

That still looks like an explosion to me....

The kings of fun!

This is the implosion/explosion thread which was intended to be used to cover both implosive and explosive scenarios... I thought there would be moments of both as the weekend unfolded Red Sox Win, Orioles Win, Tigers Win -- thus far it has come up completely implosive An implosion/explosion thread makes no sense without explosion... I swear to got there will still be one more explosion... by god there must be. The 'End of Jays 2016' part was just to indicate the inevitable, the season will end in either days or weeks, hopefully, somehow, closer to weeks. God help us all, God protect the children and make the world a better place, and don't bother with the Blue Jays, for better or worse they have to do it on their own.

Or maybe detroit loses a game?? I'm just sort of stunned here... the last time a good thing happened was Tuesday Wednesday, Jays lose, Tigers win Thursday Jays lose, Tigers rained out. Friday Jays lose, Orioles Win, Tigers Win I guess that is 6 bads in a row, hopefully something good happens tomorrow.

Your thread was fine... This one was just to talk about the quickly changing odds... It was called explosion/implosion over the weekend.. It was both... Unfortunately it looks like it will be the worst night possible... Sorry, this really sucks.., I feel awful I don't mean to piss every one off... Like the rest of you I just want the jays to win... What an awful night.... I hope somehow they pull it out over the next two games... But playoff odds are now less than 50 I am guessing

More Shapiro's philosaphy... not sure if he wants to spend big money on a declining asset. It is an interesting question though... because if another smart team, like the Red Sox think he's worth 100 million... why do the Blue Jays think he is not. It makes sense to me that he is not, but why would one smart organization be willing to pay?? And another not?? I guess the sox theoretically might have a higher payroll.

Sorry about the overly dramatic language -- This version of the team is coming to an end... there is a good chance there is going to be a little bit of a down cycle. That is why the fans are more panicky then ussual. If the team had gone a different direction, and was a younger team, with the same record the fans wouldn't be as panicky... Or do you see this as just another year?? That Shapiro will be able to keep the Jays competitive in the East EVERY year for the next few, without a down cycle?

And even if you just wanted meaningful basebal... did you want... 1. Meaningful baseball for a couple years then a return to status quo for several years as the Yankees and Red Sox become dominant again?? 2. Meninngful baseball for many years. A team managed and designed for competiitive multi year cycles. If the second most fans are fine for meaningful baseball... mutliple kicks at the can, if it doesn't work out kick the can again, when a cycle ends, look forward to a couple of down years and watching the young base of the next cycle develop. Part of the panic is the fact no one know what comes next..

A fan wants the future to be certain and bright... In the short term that means the fan wants to know the team will be in the playoffs and have an awesome shot at going deep in the playoffs. Fans want home field advantage. In the long term the fan want to know the team will be strong for the next few year... they want players they can follow for a generation The good organizations do right by their fans. It is the ethical thing to do... the Red Sox give Papi, for years and years, and when Papi is ready to leave they give Betts, they give Bogartz, they give Bradley Jr. , and Bennintendi and Moncando Epstein loves the fans, and honors them, he gives them years and years of joy, he gives them Rizzo, he gives them Bryant AA gave a pressure cooker... left Gibby with an old disfunctional team, not a bad team, not a great team, but a team without a path for a long future... And they went Boston on the verge collapse.. what happens next we do not know,.

I don't know if we are the biggest threat but they definitely have incentive to make it as hard as possible for us. Especially if the wild card teams end up in a clusterf*** scenario where they have to all play hard on Sunday, Detroit plays Monday, and the other teams Tuesday, Wednesday, somehow... then Boston/Texas would get a wild card team with 4th starter... we might have the best 4th starter in that scenario.

That's why I started the thread. There are a lot of moving parts here and things will change fast as the games begin. How long will Porcello pitch?? What lineup will Boston put out there?? Will the rain effect things??

I am sure in the model a tigers indian matchup would be about a 50%... however in reality it may be different. I only threw the 90% number out there as speculation... it could be 65%, or 80%... I don't know. I am really curious how people think the probabilities should be adjusted based on quality of opponent and such. A lot of people think Detroit has a really good shot because they play Atlanta and then potentially a Cleveland team that doesn't care.

I almost forgot Alcantara Walker.... anyone care?? Are the probabilities messed up because of factors fan-graphs does not consider?? Are the tigers chances actually better, because if they get to the Monday game against Cleveland they actually have a 90% chance of winning that one, because Cleveland will not risk any pitcher relevant to their Division series??

The end of the 2016 season is coming within 5 weeks even in the best case scenario. I know we allready have explosion and implosion threads but at this point it can go from explosion to implosion on one play. Here is what we are dealing with Orioles 88/7% Jays 86.2% Tigers 14.7 Marier 10.4 Every one else has been eliminated Tonight Estrada/Porcello - Questions: Will the Kings of fun wake up?? Do the Sox care?? Will Porcello pitch more than 3 innings?? Gallardo/Pinedo - Questions: Will Gallardo pull a Jiminez?? Do the Yanks and Headley hate the Kings enough to blow this game, or not bring their a-game?? Norris/Misler - Question: Will Norris come back and screw us?? Atlanta is pretty hot, will they keep it up and help us?? All probabilities could be drastically different tomorrow... What we hope: Jays probability does not change by more than 13.8% over the weekend Explosion?? Implosion?? In 4 or 5 days we will be able to rule out complete implosion or it will become a certainty. What we want -- to be discussing explosion next Thursday morning.

Seriously people, chill out! It was 2 games. TWO!!!! There will be 3 more, plus PLAYOFFS after that. Everything that could have went wrong did go wrong. Bats cold, Orioles hit a big homer at the right time, bullpen a bit tired, and Goins having to play a game because of the Travis injury. I believe in this team. They can get the job done. Now everyone join me and ditch the freaking out after one game. Seriously. It's time to take a step back and relax. Big picture. We're set.

It didn't have to be Tepara, it could of been Barnes. Anyway, I wasn't accusing you of being confident in a playoff spot... Just saying in general people were... guys were buying their wild card tickes and getting a night off two days ago. Doesn't a team, not just a playoff team, have to have a guy who can protect a 4 run lead, who is not the closer?? I

It's time for Gibbons to go honestly... I said in another comment I'm not opposed to rebuilding... I'm also not opposed to restocking and trying to build a competitive team around Donaldson's next two years. Interesting to see how Shatkins builds their own roster... Don't think Gibby should manage a roster that is 50% or more Shatkins.