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John_Havok

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Everything posted by John_Havok

  1. John_Havok
    Oh yes, very highly regarded at the back end
  2. John_Havok
    Yeah, why would anyone want to check on around on hypotheticals before they know if a guy is signing or not. Foresight is stupid.
  3. John_Havok
    The elbow cleanup surgery was Yimi.
  4. John_Havok
    Possibly. I was just comparing results as opposed to anything under the hood. They both project at 1.6 fWAR for 2026.
  5. John_Havok
    Food for thought on the Verlander thing... Last season he was basically Berrios with .5 HRs less per 9 innings. I think his days of being an ace are firmly in the rearview. Much like Scherzer last year he's probably a guy to hold down the back of a rotation, but... Berrios is already there. If Verlander is coming in, Berrios probably has to be gone... or hurt.
  6. John_Havok
    Keep in mind, while the actual dollar amount for Berrios is gross... his CBT hit is 18.7. It's not as gross as it seems.
  7. John_Havok
    Gausman, Bieber, Yesavage, Verlander, Berrios.... would that be markedly better than Gausman, Bieber Yesavage, Lauer, Berrios?
  8. John_Havok
    You shouldn't, because he's not. From the fans POV, he suffers from where fans have expectations for him, vs his performance. If a guy like Berrios is your 5th starter, you're in a pretty great spot.... until you consider his salary. The problem is... you don't want to be paying your 5th starter the kind of money he's getting paid, so fans move to the "he's useless" opinion. The opinion that he's making way too much money to be pitching like a 5th starter is valid. Zooming out...using CBT as a guide... the Jays projected starting 5 is 22+18.7+13 + 5.3 + 820K = 59.8m. That's not bad for a world series team.
  9. John_Havok
    Something with the pen needs to be addressed though, bottom half of the league in fWAR while being top 3 in K rate. The HR parade from Hoffman had a lot to do with that as did Little not being able to hit water if he fell out of a boat in the 2nd half. Getting a healthy Yimi back would be a good start amd realistically the place they should be adding to the pen is towards the back end. Theres easily enough depth for the 4-8 pen spots. They need someone to be able to step directly in for Hoffman if he falters again. As it stands if we assume a healthy Garcia... its likely Varland, Yimi, Hoffman in the 7th, 8th,9th, with a sprinkling of Little and Fluharty when the need arises for a lefty. So that's your top 5 with Fisher, Nance, Yariel rounding out the bottom 3. Not awful, should be above average, but im not thinking thats a top 5 pen either. Schultz, Lucas and Bruihl will be in the mix too but they dont really move the needle. Adding another true backend reliever is really the only way they can improve the pen to where it needs to be.
  10. John_Havok
    Yeah, pretty much. Bellinger checks all the boxes Atkins likes, good and flexible D, good contact, useful power... if they found a way to squeeze him in... trade Lukes for whatever they can get, and find a way to solve the DH problem, that would be massive
  11. John_Havok
    Not to try and discount Bellinger's talents,,, but he's an upgraded version of Nathan Lukes with a much better history at the MLB level, and currently a much better launch angle allowing him to tap into the power more often. Whether he's worth the money to get that upgrade is up for debate I think. I'd rather have Bellinger, and would probably have more faith in him reproducing his last season over Lukes, but Lukes is still a good option.
  12. John_Havok
    Its truly weird how some FOs just watch on to cerain low-ceiling/marginal players and fall over themselves to keep bringing them back over and over. AA had Chavez in Atlanta. Atkins has IKF, the Yankees have Yarborough...
  13. John_Havok
    i dunno, it's in the past so .. pointing fingers is just stupid at this point. It happened. it sucks. get over it. Spring Training starts in 81 days, 10 hours, and 28 minutes.
  14. John_Havok
    Low swing speed but high EV = the new market inefficiency
  15. John_Havok
    The is never a singular play in any baseball game that says "that is why we lost". That's both the beauty and ugly truth of baseball.
  16. John_Havok
    Probably. It's just when the player's choose to swing slowly could certainly infiltrate the numbers when using the top 90% of swings. They also include all swings above 60mph where EV results in 90+ mph. Since Bo's avg exit velo is 91mph, alot of those 60-74.95 mph swings are going to be included in his bat speed calcs. in 2025 he managed 72nd percentile EV (91mph) with 12th percentile bat speed. Looking at a few other jays from 2025 with low tier bat speed (Clement, Lukes, IKF, Gimenez) the relationships make more sense. IKF - 1st percentile EV, 2nd percentile bat speed (seriously... this guy should not be playing) Clement - 8th percentile EV, 5th percentile bat speed Lukes - 19th percentile EV, 6th percentile bat speed. Gimenez - 8th percentile EV, 13th percentile bat speed. Conclusion: Bo is a freak
  17. John_Havok
    I wonder this too, like for sprint speed, they only measure it when the player is actively trying to run as fast as they can. If they averaged in all the slow trots to first on groundouts to 2b... the numbers would be silly.
  18. John_Havok
    Seems both the Jays and Dodgers made offers in the same neighborhood, he just chose to stay in Atlanta.
  19. John_Havok
    It's one of those spectrums I think... like with EV, you might see a guy's average EV creep up without a corresponding increase in max EV, so you'd probably question what the average EV increase means overall. Avg bat speed... I kinda see it the same way. We know Bo can get the bat around in a hurry if he wants/needs to based on seeing those 80+ mph swings. He just doesn't utilize it very often.
  20. John_Havok
    Lots of fault to go around, but no, it was THIS ONE GUY'S FAULT. true insight
  21. John_Havok
    Prospects break your heart, this is why using them as capital is usually the smart play when you have the chance. These franchises that rely on getting 3-5 extra picks every year and run a team with youth really can't get married to their prospects. They have to supplement when they can, and if they aren't willing to do that with money, they have to do it via trade. Milwaukee is probably the only success story with this at present (rays in the past but they're sliding) and they might actually be trading their front line pitchers before the deadline even if they're in contention. These teams should be sinking every dollar they can spare into player development (the brewers clearly did) to ensure they get the most out of all their handout draft picks in the minors and trade some for bonafide big leaguers whenever they need to. Hoarding them all just doesn't pan out 9 times out of 10.
  22. John_Havok
    Stieb's and Halladay's are not 1 in 20 vs a Pearson or Manoah. Closer to 1 in 100 or even higher
  23. John_Havok
    This is one of the prevailing theories that goes alongside the increased velo/spin focus of arms across the sport. Chances are there is no single reason, but rather it being multi-factorial.
  24. John_Havok
    Oh for sure, I don't begrudge any kid whose parent has the means to provide the environment to grow. It's just... that's the textbook definition of privilege, he didn't overcome privilege. The way the terminology is presented is laughable.
  25. John_Havok
    Well it was his injuries that kept him from performing and making it not overly cost-effective to want to pay him his arbitration projection for a guaranteed spot on the roster when they need space for protecting rule-5 guys. It's unfortunate, Sandlin is one of those arms that could fully break out at any time. Wouldn't surprise me in the least to see him as a back-end option somewhere in the near future.
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