John_Havok

Theyve also signed non 16 year olds like Gurriel Jr and Yariel. Take the risk profile of high schoolers getting drafted at 18, and then mutiply that by like... 100 and you get close to the risk profile of a 16 year old

Or use this.... didnt know this existed.

As far as I know we cant search by dates at baseball savant. But yeah, i had mentioned the increased a few posts above as well. It's definitely increased dramatically in the last month or so A not so perfect system is using the fangraphs splits tool... in July, GB rate is down to 46% from over 53 in May /june, FB rate has increased from 22% in May to 35% in June, and again to 38% in July. It's messy, but it at least it seems to show a change in approach or mechanics.

To be clear, I'm not cool with 300 million.

Great, his ISO was still garbage in april. My overall point is that I'd rather see Vlad driving his wRC+ with an average BABIP, and .290 ISO rather than limp noodling oppo singles and walks. Yes, i'd rather see his walk rate at 10% or higher, which i think will return in short order.

BABIP in May .413 (unsustainable) BABIP in June .310 (sustainable)

I put Devonte Brown into at least the semi-interesting kinda borderline almost noticeable category, possible backup OF and pinch runner.

I shudder to think what kind of butchery Vlad would give us in RF.

Tirotta has been killing it at AAA... but hes 25 and plays 1b. Then there's that 3b they signed out of the who the f*** knows league, Gabe Cancel. 27.... also murdering beisbols. If you squint.... you might get a slight tingle

walk rate / on base will normalize once they start pitching around him again. Ill take June vlad and his .290 ISO driven 172 wrc+ over his May 166 wrC+ driven by walking and slapping singles with a .112 ISO all day. Sure, overall the wRC+ is close enough to a wash, but the power driven wRC+ is far sexier and not sustained by BABIP, but sustained by smashing the piss out of baseballs.

Your statement on his OBP is somewhat exaggerated. He's only taking 2.5 walks less per 100 PAs.... it's not a drastic change. It's still mainly a power issue, and worse baserunning and defense sucking his value. But mainly the power. 2021 ISO .290, 2024 .187 The cause of the lack of power is pretty much correlated directly to his avg sweet spot/LA ... 50th percentile in 2021, 32nd percentile in 2024. it is climbing though, last time I checked a few weeks ago it was around 20th percentile.

There's no doubt most orgs in their exact same positions would be doing this. Orioles are on track to win the division and possibly make a deep run in the playoffs, a brain-dead monkey could look at the roster and see that Mountcastle and Mullins are the spots they need to improve, along with a SP and pen help (Sp and pen being what virtually every contended wants to upgrade EVERY season at the deadline)

Yeah, it's like teams in two different situations with drastically different strenfth of farm systems don't somehow arrive at the end same conclusion. That is weird. They're trading g them because the players are borderline terrible and can get better production from their farm, it's not some monumental genius front office plan that only they can see.

I don't necessarily agree that its a "dont care about wins in 2025" situation. The core of the team is all FAs like you said between next offseason and the one after with the exception of Berrios. So... there's really only 2 valid paths, if the goal is to try and win with the core they built (rightly or wrongly). That's to either go for it all-in in 2025 and 2026 and then deal with the garbage pile later... or slightly dial back in 2025 and 2026, try to hit with savvy additions and trades to fill the gaps, and maybe get a bigger-ish name FA for 2025 to make a headline and keep the optimism alive. I'd wager they're going with option 2. That option though can be accomplished a ton of ways. I also think you overestimate the intelligence of the average Jays fan, who still worship at the altar of batting average and fielding percentage. Plus, attendance in the early part of the season always takes a dip after the first home series, especially if it's a weekday series against a "who cares" team.

True. I do dismiss most talking heads because their jobs are really no longer about having real conversations, but rather to be outlandish and attract attention.

heh, best things to drive attention.... unwavering optimism or pure doom and gloom. Doom and gloom usually works better

Well, they could.... but what free agent is going to sign up for a team in 2025 that just traded virtually every talented player they had and just have nothing but maybes like Horwitz, Schneider, Clement, Varsho etc and a few prospects? That's like the opposite of what they should do. Tearing down and trying to get to 80 wins via FAs makes very little sense both on the field and on the bottom line.

it has nothing to do with the ownership "not being able to see it." they know exactly what they're doing. They will never intentionally put a s*** team on the field to rebuild that tells fans to just wait for 3 years when we're back on the upswing. They know they could trade everyone with a pulse and just be garbage for the next few seasons. They will not do it because it's worth way more money to them to be in the 80 wins + or - 5 range, rather than a 65-70 win team that nobody wants to pay to see in person and nobody wants to pay to watch via stream.

Im gonna go buy a lottery ticket. You and Brownie agree.... a mod says "Yeah, L54 is right...." WTF is next?

All somewhat logical leaps, except the part that playing like garbage isn't a great way to make yourself tradeable.

Sign one of Soto or Bregman, sign Burnes, Romano is still here. Pen can be a crapshoot but could also bounce right back in short order with better health and a key addition or two. bottom half of the pen is already here. Bench can be retooled easily enough. Gausman is better next season, maybe not an ace, but he's likely not this bad again. I'd be more worried about Bassitt falling off a cliff. Berrios, even if he's this years version is okay. Not ideal given his price tag, but okay. Yariel takes the 5 spot, Manoah comes back in the second half as a bonus. Much still depends on Bo, Vlad, Springer having actual good to great seasons at the same time. Top 4 of Springer, Soto/Bregman, Vlad and Bo is nothing to be messed with if theyre all actually performing at the same time. Question marks remain of course on whether Horwitz remains viable as a starter at 2b. IKF is here, could easily take a step back with the bat from this season but the glove and versatility is fine. I think we know what Clement and Schneider already are, not quite starters, but not pure bench guys. Vartsho is fine as the starting CF. The C spot and the backup CF spot are the main concerns for the hitters imo. I have no idea what to expect from Kirk as a FT starter, he might actually die from the workload. Sure he'd be fine defensively, but his offense is probably not coming back to where it was. backup CF shouldnt be hard to find for cheap.

I can definitely see the argument for the offseason move, but I can also see the argument for holding on and trying for a competitive 2025 in what would be, in all likelihood, his final season with the Jays. His highest value at this point would only be there if he comes back from injury and lights the world on fire for the remainder of August and September. but if he does that, that's also why the Jays would want to keep him for 2025 and take one last shot. If they're out of it they can move him at the deadline. But of course, doing that runs the risk of a repeat of 2024.. what if Bo continues to suck? Is Bo overly moveable for anything worthwhile even in the offseason if he just stinks for the rest of 2024? At this point, I don't really see a happy ending for the Jays in this scenario, unless he both plays great for the rest of 2024 and all of 2025 and the Jays win the division. I'm not sure I want to calculate the odds of that happening though.

Yeah injured guys can be traded.

Amd Semien when he was here. dude pretty much cried when Semien left.

DFA'd Paxton to call up Ryan. Good deal for Paxton too as his contract gave him a bunch of bonuses for games started... and 18 starts was the highest # needed to max out. He started exactly 18 games. 13 Million bucks for 0.4 bWAR