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John_Havok

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Everything posted by John_Havok

  1. John_Havok
    Man, dunno what's wrong with Vlad tonight, he could have walked twice already, instead he's out there putting balls in the stands. Hope he gets himself right soon before his value craters.
  2. John_Havok
    Thats twice today ....lol
  3. John_Havok
  4. John_Havok
    McGuire should have come back with "yeah, had some great pics of your wife..."
  5. John_Havok
    No doubt. early turf in the Trop was complete trash. even the stuff in the RC was really bad until they put a newer type in 2015 and then the newest stuff in 2021
  6. John_Havok
    I wonder what precipitated him yelling that at Reese, obviously wasn't something ya just throw out there randomly.
  7. John_Havok
    You'd probably find a higher correlation to those types of injuries back when playing on truf was like playing on cement... but the stuff they have now is extremely forgiving.
  8. John_Havok
    You know Jack too? What are the odds....
  9. John_Havok
    Relevant links: 1st one is there total careers compared. 2nd one just removes Soto's first season to compare euqal # of seasons. https://stathead.com/baseball/vs/vladimir-guerrero-jr-vs-juan-soto https://stathead.com/baseball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=guerre002vla&p1yrfrom=2019&p1yrto=2024&player_id2=soto--003jua&p2yrfrom=2019&p2yrto=2024
  10. John_Havok
    I'd prefer extending Vlad, trading Bo and signing Kim/Adames, Soto and Burnes. WS 2025.
  11. John_Havok
    No worries, you added some excellent content.
  12. John_Havok
    Robbie Ray back on the mound tonight for San Fran.
  13. John_Havok
    Theyve also signed non 16 year olds like Gurriel Jr and Yariel. Take the risk profile of high schoolers getting drafted at 18, and then mutiply that by like... 100 and you get close to the risk profile of a 16 year old
  14. John_Havok
    Or use this.... didnt know this existed.
  15. John_Havok
    As far as I know we cant search by dates at baseball savant. But yeah, i had mentioned the increased a few posts above as well. It's definitely increased dramatically in the last month or so A not so perfect system is using the fangraphs splits tool... in July, GB rate is down to 46% from over 53 in May /june, FB rate has increased from 22% in May to 35% in June, and again to 38% in July. It's messy, but it at least it seems to show a change in approach or mechanics.
  16. John_Havok
    To be clear, I'm not cool with 300 million.
  17. John_Havok
    Great, his ISO was still garbage in april. My overall point is that I'd rather see Vlad driving his wRC+ with an average BABIP, and .290 ISO rather than limp noodling oppo singles and walks. Yes, i'd rather see his walk rate at 10% or higher, which i think will return in short order.
  18. John_Havok
    BABIP in May .413 (unsustainable) BABIP in June .310 (sustainable)
  19. John_Havok
    I put Devonte Brown into at least the semi-interesting kinda borderline almost noticeable category, possible backup OF and pinch runner.
  20. John_Havok
    I shudder to think what kind of butchery Vlad would give us in RF.
  21. John_Havok
    Tirotta has been killing it at AAA... but hes 25 and plays 1b. Then there's that 3b they signed out of the who the f*** knows league, Gabe Cancel. 27.... also murdering beisbols. If you squint.... you might get a slight tingle
  22. John_Havok
    walk rate / on base will normalize once they start pitching around him again. Ill take June vlad and his .290 ISO driven 172 wrc+ over his May 166 wrC+ driven by walking and slapping singles with a .112 ISO all day. Sure, overall the wRC+ is close enough to a wash, but the power driven wRC+ is far sexier and not sustained by BABIP, but sustained by smashing the piss out of baseballs.
  23. John_Havok
    Your statement on his OBP is somewhat exaggerated. He's only taking 2.5 walks less per 100 PAs.... it's not a drastic change. It's still mainly a power issue, and worse baserunning and defense sucking his value. But mainly the power. 2021 ISO .290, 2024 .187 The cause of the lack of power is pretty much correlated directly to his avg sweet spot/LA ... 50th percentile in 2021, 32nd percentile in 2024. it is climbing though, last time I checked a few weeks ago it was around 20th percentile.
  24. John_Havok
    There's no doubt most orgs in their exact same positions would be doing this. Orioles are on track to win the division and possibly make a deep run in the playoffs, a brain-dead monkey could look at the roster and see that Mountcastle and Mullins are the spots they need to improve, along with a SP and pen help (Sp and pen being what virtually every contended wants to upgrade EVERY season at the deadline)
  25. John_Havok
    Yeah, it's like teams in two different situations with drastically different strenfth of farm systems don't somehow arrive at the end same conclusion. That is weird. They're trading g them because the players are borderline terrible and can get better production from their farm, it's not some monumental genius front office plan that only they can see.
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