John_Havok

Yeah his quality of contact is just... bad. Early on in the season he looked like he had started making much better swing decisions... taking walks... but as it went on he's gone back to old habits. The other day I was watching his ABs specifically and thought I saw his hands doing some really weird s***. Like, once he decides to swing, he recoils his hands backwards again before coming forwards. I'm not a hitting expert but I would think that is detrimental and would cause him to be late.

The issue is, he doesn't really have to go scorched earth because they wont be starting from "Bo is .sub 600 OPS hitter,, Springer is a sub. 650 OPS hitter... pitching will certainly be worse...." There's a reason projections exist, in order to filter out people's emotional and irrational blind spots. Like, you wouldn't expect Bo to be a 5 WAR guy either, but you'd start somewhere in the middle. 2.5-3 FWAR is not an unrealistic expectation. It's not unrealistic to expect that Berrios will bounce back a little. Its not unreasonable to expect that Vlad probably wont be 2021, and probably wont be 2023. It's not unreasonable to think a healthy Romano and Green would be solid at the back end of the pen. It's probably realistic to expect a reduction in effectiveness from Bassitt, but not to the point of being unrosterable trash. Ditto Gausman probably takes a step back from his ace-like numbers, but not to the point of this season's numbers. Like, when these guys are figuring out what to do, they don't just look at a run differential from this year and somehow think they will have to improve by 200-300 runs, that's an impossible task, they're going to start with projections and build from there because that's what rational people do. Sure, they'll have some numbers on the lower side, and some on the higher side.

No, but I know how they think. It's easy. You just take how you would think, subtract 90% baseball IQ and start scrolling through fielding percentage and batting average lists.

You don't think like a casual fan though. Never underestimate the hype train. Jays will absolutely be active in FA this offseason and make a big enough splash signing or big trade out of nowhere to make headlines and move some tickets. It might not be a Soto signing (it should be) but something big will happen.

This. Who cares if they lose every game between now and the end of season (hyperbole... i know) The point now is getting Yariel as many innings as he can get to build up for next season, seeing what guys like Barger and Loperfido can do with some more regular-ish PAs, and what any pen arm not named Green can do in more leveraged roles. Swanson getting a good few months in after his disastrous start to the season would be great to see. To me, that's more watchable than trying to fool yourself that we're going to be watching a good team. Todays result was inevitable when you're running Paulino and other AAA scrubs out behind him. Barger mashing baseballs was nice to see.

What's the O's roster even look like for this game? no way most of the guys they traded for would be there in time for the game is there?

Properly structured and deferred, a 300m dollar deal wouldn't be so bad. I hope they're able to avoid that too, but I also think his off-field value to Rogers is going to be exceptionally hard to ignore.

Jim Bowden thought it was a great idea to trade Vlad, Bo, Gausman and do a full rebuild. That's pretty much the best evidence I've seen that it's a terrible idea.

Probably more to do with the contract value than a few starts

But would the giving team have offered it? nope.

Cleveland couldn't afford him and had to. Terrible comparison. The comparison you're looking for is Boston trading Betts rather than extending him.

But still just a pretty well educated guess. There's all kinds of little things that the sites are never fully aware of.

They can, but dumping the salary would greatly negate the return. Plus, all the teams looking at pen upgrades found their guys elsewhere. There's only so many destinations. Jays would have to have eaten a fairly large chunk of his salary to get a good return, which pretty much negates the point of the salary dump. Having him around for another season is far from being a problem.

At anyone's best guess... yes. We didn't really know that for sure. Given today's trades I would be floored if they weren't under it comfortably now.

He's not a corpse, which is about all Richards was going to land, so that's as plus as it gets really.

can't really hate the deadline deals. All the expiring contracts are gone, intriguing prospects actually acquired. I can see some thinking a Green deal would have been welcome, I can see that argument. Money involved probably sunk that. The fact they even got a warm body for Richards is kind of amazing. Figured they might get their Coke machine stocked at best.

They also picked up Flaherty from the Tigers. Dodgers going balls out at the deadline

Very solid return. Probably as close to best case scenario as possible for the Jays on the IKF signing.

I think it's just something that has to be accepted that jo matter what extension he sighs for (if he's signed) it will be a "bad" extension from a purely on-field performance standpoint unless he's virtually MVP calibre or close to. Vlads worth to the Jays off the field though is also something they just also have to consider. Vlad is worth more to the Jays than to any other team when it comes to the off-field stuff. It will factor in

Yeah but you don't sell for the sake of selling. Only if you're get more than you expect.

Richards and KK sure... but neither of them are overly attractive at the moment as trade targets. Bassitt... no. you still need a rotation next year - if you get blown away ... sure. But you don't move him for money savings. IKF.... i could go either way there. If it's needed to get under the luxury tax, yes. Same with Green.

You passed up getting your TimBits vanilla dipped.

I know I'm not the only one wondering this.... What kind of donut?

Gotta think Soto is going to be in that 13 year 45-50 per year range. Also guessing the contract has opt outs and has a fair chunk of it deferred until 2050 or some s***. Like, they could sign both Vlad and Soto to 13 year deals, but heavily front load for the first 4 years or something with big chunks deferred, then include an opt out after 4 years or something (age 30) with the actual dollars per year after that opt out being 30-35 million or something. At least that way you get them both for their best prime seasons, they get their high AAV asks, buit only actually pay them the biggest part of their salary later on spread out, and hope they opt out at 30.

i fully support this Orioles move.