Laika

1. What metrics do you use and rely upon consistently? For holistic hitting performance wOBA and OPS are both fine. Both correlate well with runs scored. I prefer wOBA because it is created from the run values of the events that happened, whereas OPS is just a random combination of OBP and SLG. wRC+ is preferable to both, though, because it is park adjusted. wOBA is not! And neither is OPS, of course. So you can weed out things like the Coors effect by looking at wRC+. Another advantage of wOBA over OPS is you can compare wOBA directly to xwOBA, which is their expected wOBA based on the fancy statcast stuff like hard hit rate and batted ball profile. So wOBA gets a leg up in utility in the era of statcast and baseballsavant. So for holistic hitting performance (i.e., "how good has this guy been?") I am mostly looking at wOBA and wRC+. If I went to go a bit "under the hood" I will look at xwOBA, BABIP, K and BB rates, barrel rate, maximum EV and average EV, launch angle, and batted ball percentages (GB%, etc.) These all help answer the questions of "how indicative of actual talent is this player's past performance?" and "how good should we expect this guy to be going forward?". For hitters, all you need to really look at after wOBA/wRC+ are their BsR and UZR on Fangraphs. Layer in the positional adjustment and all of that stuff together = fWAR. Note that "Def" displayed on the Fangraphs dashboard is UZR + the positional adjustment. I don't really look at baseball reference WAR for hitters, ever.

2011 to 2015 = bad results 2016 to 2020 = too early to tell. some of those guys could still be studs.

Greenwood's list of minor league stats to look it is pretty solid, BTW. That's kind of all you need and catches everything that actually correlates with future success. I don't really look at HR rate for hitters but I do look at ISO and BABIP. If you look at those stats in concert with scouting report info (use Fangraphs or BA) then you are at least looking at all the right info for minor leaguers.

It's a bit ironic, and a point a lot of people don't appreciate. People who are in, I dunno, year 3 of their sabermetrics journey often want to see their team go all in on position prospects because pitchers blow up all the time and "TINSTAAPP" and all that jazz. BUT pitchers are just easier to scout. Way easier to scout. So even though the attrition/injury rates are way higher for pitching, it's easier to identify the good ones. These points cancel each other out at least to some degree.

https://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/5025-Sabermetrics-Introduction-and-Discussion

TL you are a message board wizard. Holy f***.

He could be all yours for something like Yoan Moncada + Sixto Sanchez + Oneil Cruz

Current order would be Matz-Ryu-Manoah-Strip-Ray If that order is kept in tact then we would see: TEX Matz TEX Ryu TEX Manoah BOS Strip BOS Ray BOS Matz NYM Ryu NYM Manoah NYM Strip BOS Ray BOS Matz BOS Ryu BOS Manoah All I would do is shuffle it a bit so Ryu lines up against Boston twice and Matz does only one. Probably just flip Matz and Ryu. It doesn't really matter though. Start of August there are 7 games in a row against Cleveland and Boston. Those are all huge games. You can't really help but have all of your guys face those teams multiple times.

"A 1983 Hobart College graduate with a Bachelor of Arts degree in English, McGuire played both hockey and baseball at Hobart." Huh. Baseball eh...

That is SO f***ed up.

Tough call. I'd probably just split the difference. I could buy that he's been a bit lucky on LOB% and BABIP but you also would expect a low BABIP with how he's pitching (lots of pop ups due to spinny fastballs up in the zone) and you might also expect a higher than normal LOB% because he is striking out so many guys without getting in walk trouble.

Is this for real?

Jesus, Cody Bellinger has a .593 OPS. Nightmare territory. This is a double week, BTW. July 12th to 25th.

bWAR is basically ERA with adjustments for the quality of defense behind the pitcher, quality of opposition, and parks pitched in. So ERA centric. fWAR is FIP based. Any time a P has a big difference between ERA and FIP their fWAR and bWAR will likely be divergent.

3.3 bWAR right now.

Players with elite or even good command do NOT have the BB/9 and K/BB numbers that Pardinho has posted in the minors. Look at what Chris Paddack did in the minors if you want an actual reference point for plus command down there. IIRC when people used to talk about Pardinho as being "advanced" it was more of a reference to his feel for spin and the fact that he had multiple viable pitches at such a young age. Also people liked his mechanics and delivery. With decent command layered in. So more of a total package thing - he just ticked a lot of boxes.

This might be the lamest thing I have ever seen. Nobody gives a s*** anymore, Martin. The story is old as f*** and you just brought it up again by showing off your jiggly body.

Kind of a s***** derby field after Ohtani and Gallo. Some boring participants. Soto is kind of fun.

Well no f***ing s***, three plus pitches and command = a f***ing Ace. The real comparison is the power arm without much else vs the command specialist without much else.

Fangraphs report is probably the best one out there as far as actual insight goes. Main points: - best command in college - plus slider - fastball has positive characteristics aside from velo - sounds like basic pro weight training could boost velo - once healthy he may not need much development Full Report Hoglund was many scout's favorite non-first round prep projection arm for 2018: up to 96, average off-speed stuff, but a clean delivery and frame with room to grow. He didn't sign as a comp pick of the Pirates and instead went to Ole Miss. He had growing pains as a freshman, but looked crisp in the fall of 2019, which was the start of his ascent to legitimate college ace. Through 2021 Hoglund was arguably the most polished college arm in the class, sitting in the low-90s, while dotting a plus slider on the corner with remarkable consistency. Healthy Hoglund has the best command in this draft. His fastball's tailing action garners looking strikes on the glove-side corner and sets up Hoglund's changeup, which needs to develop. Toward the ends of a dominant 2021, Hoglund looked awkward and uncomfortable warming up for a start and was removed from it early on. He would need Tommy John. We look at his rehab as an opportunity to rework a softer build and maybe exit the process with more velocity. TJ rehab or not, Hoglund has a great chance to be one of the first players from this class to reach the big leagues because of how advanced he is.

This isn't a steal, it's just a potentially nice pick.

They made the playoffs last year and it was a fun season. They sucked ass the year before and got Martin. Enough tanking for a while, thanks.

Nah. I'd rather win.

Sounds like Royals are going way off the board

It's like Kjerstad all over. I'd be mildly annoyed as an O's fan