Laika

It's a fair comparison We have seen a decent amount of players with poor plate discipline age harshly or not live up to big contracts. I mean it's not rocket science. Jones, Javy Baez, Castellanos, so many more. Adam Jones was comfortably worse than Bo though. Through age 27: Jones: 4.6% BB, 19% K, 109 wRC+, 17.3 WAR, 3658 PA Bo: 5.7% BB, 19.4% K, 122 wRC+, 20.0 WAR, 3292 PA (Bo would have 22.22 WAR if you equal his PA to Jones') In the last two years Bo does have BB rates over 6 and his K rate was an elite 14.5% in 2025. He also has places to go on the defensive spectrum, 2B and 3B, which have more value than a corner outfield spot which is the only place for a CF to go. I mean Bo can age just as sharply but he would then be a 105 wRC+ 2B/3B and not a 95 wRC+ LF like Jones was. I wonder if people overstate Bo Bichette's plate discipline issues. In 2024+2025 combined, minimum 900 PA, if you sort hitters by BB/K lowest to highest, Bo is 64th out of 155 or 41st percentile. That's not horrendous!!! Yes his Swing% is much higher (13th out of 155) so his ability to avoid Ks and get some BBs is still predicated largely on his ability to make contact If you do the same search for Adam Jones in 2012+2013 he was second worst in the BB/K department out of 158 hitters. Javy Baez in 2019+2020 was 3rd worst. Castellanos 2018+2019 was 23rd worst out of 151, that is 15th percentile. Bo might be unfairly criticized because he is hard to comp correctly. I think you need to sort for his warts and positives. If you look for players who: Had BB rates under 6% Kept the K rates under 20% on average Hit for some power Had a track record of quality hitting (near 100 wRC+ or better with consistency) You are going to pull a comp list like this: Adam Jones Alex Rios Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Howie Kendrick Brandon Phillips Eddie Rosario Pudge Someone like Castellanos is close but the Ks are too high. Someone like Trea Turner is close but maybe he walked a bit too much (and his legs are a huge differentiation, anyway). If he ages like Kendrick or Phillips, he's easily worth 8/$200. If he ages like Adam Jones he's $70m underwater. If you are the Blue Jays you want him in the middle I think. You don't want that 8th year, or you want the AAV to be more like $170m.

They didn't? Wtf?

Of course By his Fangraphs projection alone he's worth 2.3, 1.8, 1.3 WAR so about $23M, $18M and $13M or $54M in the next three years. You take some of that off for the league translation risk on that projection but it is easy to see the potential value. tbh with that velo and changeup the potential for a 3 win pitcher is pretty clear and obvious

3/$30m is just SP5 or "good reliever" money anyway so he doesn't need to do much to be worth it

From his blog... Hey Lance. Who would you rough comp be for Ponce given his arsenal/traits/projected command etc? Lance Brozdowski Oddly tough to find a comp for him that matches what we think the 4S might regress to with the MLB ball. It lines up with some relievers like Hunter Gaddis and Julian Merryweather. Kick-change comp is roughly similar to Clay Holmes with less arm-side (again, just we few high-release guys throwing kick-ch with sub 10” arm-side). Maybe Taj Bradley is kind of an interesting comp? Taj just carries his 4S much better, but similar CH-first approach, trying to figure out breaker shape. I think if the Blue Jays got a 4-4.20 ERA over 130ish innings they’d be pretty happy. Slightly better than Nick Martinez / Michael Lorenzen types (who are both CH to righty guys pretty heavily).

Bro just parlayed his NPB ERA into generational wealth

TBD Career -5 OF by OAA in 642 innings, -6 3B in 869 innings tbh the Jays might want to stop jerking him around so he can get full time reps in either spot and actually improve personally I would want him to try 3B first, since it's a harder position to fill and he runs a bit too heavy to ever be a mint outfielder IMO

holy flucking sharts the White Sox guaranteed Anthony Kay $12M

I am not sure there is a usable KBO comp for Ponce Kelly and Fedde and Ryu and Chris Flexen were all command dudes who came over. Kelly didn't even dominate in the KBO. Fedde did but with a K-BB% about 6 points under Ponce's 2025. I mean Ryu when he first started in MLB would have had good stuff of course, but not an arsenal like Ponce at all. Not sure we have seen a guy just out-STUFF the KBO and then try to come over. At least not a starter.

Best hope for Berrios is you trade him for a bad bat contract like Oneill or Yoshida Don't see it happening

Yoo Mitchy White was pretty good in the KBO last year too lmao Bring him home?

Yesavage: Splitter Gausman: Splitter Ponce: Kick change Bieber: Kick change Cease: was trying to learn Gausman's splitter last season Almost the whole rotation gonna be RHP with changeup stories

f*** I love being a fan of this team now https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/12/blue-jays-cody-ponce-finalizing-three-year-deal.html

Probably them pivoting from Diaz but we will see They have infinite money but that still closer money there

I kind of prefer the inequity Leagues like the NHL seem so boring and random now

Nothing is off the table

Santander + Berrios to the Pirates for Skenes?

Gimenez had a .306 xwOBA last year vs a .269 wOBA His projections are for a .304 wOBA, and 95 wRC+ That is honestly all he needs to do to keep the contract from being an albatross

Stuff+ has the hardest time with changeups There are poorly graded changeups that are very effective because the pitcher has great feel and command of them and can sequence reliably And then there are Cease changeups that grade well on movement etc. but that are just slop in games because he can't find any feel or command so he can't get results with them. Or they don't complement his other pitches. I feel like getting him to find a reliable sinker or cutter is the path of least resistance because it SHOULD in theory be easier to incorporate and these are command focused pitches so if he can find one he is willing to throw even 12% of the time it might help with his Strike% I dunno! We will see

okay so f*** 284 it's just a number age is just a number and so is payroll

They are very different archetypes. Snell has trouble staying on the field but has not had performance questions in years. When he is pitching the combo of stuff and control is pretty elite. He walks hitters but it's largely on purpose - would prefer to give them nothing to hit. Uses all of his pitches effectively. Cease makes every start but is more of a bulldog who just brute forces his way through starts with knockout stuff and okay command. Almost reliever-ish. Doesn't use his 3rd or 4th pitches effectively. Honestly, it's a different repertoire but other 2 pitch guys might be better comps. Gausman... Maybe the thing to do with Cease to help him be an Ace is just fastball wrinkles. There are an increasing number of MLB pitchers who throw 2 or 3 fastball variations and it has helped them step out of being predictable or hittable. The one thing Cease maybe hasn't tried in earnest is adding a cutter and sinker. Incoming seam shifted wake sinker! Maybe use Drew Rasmussen as the model for that second fastball

I think the 2026 luxury tax thresholds are: $244M $264M $284M $304M Fangraphs says the Jays are already at $263M $284M is where the bigger surcharges (45%) begin and draft pick penalties begin (you move back ten slots) So the Jays can spend another $20M, without moving any money away, assuming they want to avoid beginning the year in the draft pick penalty range. But when you are throwing around $210M on Dylan Cease and $500M on Vlad and so forth do you really care about your draft pick sliding back 10 slots? Or one year of a 45% or 60% surcharge on the luxury tax you pay? Maybe they just blow it out of the water this year. There is about $91M coming off the books after 2026 (Springer, Gausman, Varsho, Bieber, Lauer, Yimi, Straw). Some of that money doesn't necessarily need to be used again immediately. They obviously need a CF and will probably add at least one SP. But, a chance to let payroll trickle back down so they aren't above the upper thresholds with no way out of it for years on end.

Combined - no World Series wins since 1948 Two in a combined 209 seasons? Wow

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/11/brewers-reportedly-concerned-about-payroll.html Imagine cheering for a team like this? Misery.