Since 2020
KK - 96 wRC+, 5.1 fWAR (in only 770 PA), +13 UZR/150
CB - 78 wRC+, 2.1 fWAR (in more PA), 0 UZR/150
I mean if money is the same it's not even close.
I'm not even sure Bellinger has more "realistic upside" at this point. Yeah he has more lotto-ticket upside but if KK stays healthy (big question) and does not decline he could post 3-4 fWAR.
But if it's one year for CB vs multi-year deal for mid 30s Kiermaier then give me Bellinger, the lotto ticket hacker