Laika

Welcome to the era where... If a player needs some weeks/months in the minors teams DON'T WANT HIM to make any offseason prospect lists lmao! Teams will only want their MLB ready prospects to make prospect lists if they plan to call them up right out of spring. Otherwise their ranking is an annoyance! Clear opportunities for bribery. "Hey Kiley, do you have Tim Tickle at the back end of your top 100? You do? That's kind of annoying... why don't we have lunch and talk about it ;)"

No the team is only rewarded if the player was on the opening day roster. Like Julio. Actually, Atlanta would have been "punished" because Harris would have been awarded a full year of service time. But they extended him so that is moot. Harris still gets a full year of service time but it only matters for his 10 & 5 rights, or whatever.

He was. ESPN left him off but the other two ranked him. It's honestly so dumb.

some pics here https://ballparkdigest.com/2022/11/08/work-begins-on-300m-rogers-centre-upgrades/ not much to see yet just demo phase

yeah but have you seen the Pistons record?

Well I guess... Under the old system a team could hold a player down for 2 weeks and then control them for like 6.9 seasons. That's pretty perverse. The small amount of time you had to hold a player down meant even GOOD teams often held down ELITE prospects. Kind of gross! Or they could hold them down for like 6-8 weeks to avoid them being a Super 2 player, then control them for like 6.6 seasons. Cheaper teams would do this. Under the new system you should no longer see the GOOD teams hold down ELITE prospects because: - there is a positive incentive for rostering your elite prospects from day 1, being the draft pick if they win awards - there is a negative incentive for calling up your prospects a month or two into the year because if they win awards they get a full year of service time. Meaning you get the player for only ~5.8 seasons! Now, to your point... when I first read these rules before 2022 my thought was also that it would chill early to mid season callups for elite prospects. My thought was that teams would want to avoid that "worst case scenario" at all costs so the elite prospects would either make the opening day roster or be held down until mid-summer when they no longer had any chance of winning awards. I thought this would create a scenario where elite prospects are controlled for 6 full seasons or maybe 6.5 seasons at the most. And a good chunk would be controlled for like 6.2 seasons, because if they have less than 60 days of service time in year 1 so they maintain rookie status they are eligible for that bonus pick in year 2 if they are on the opening day roster and win awards. One of the weird things is that to be eligible for the award pick, the prospects need to be top 100 ranked. That's kind of f***ing stupid that ESPN, BA, and MLB Pipeline rankings all of a sudden matter for real baseball stuff. I hate that. I think I need to change my opinion a bit. I think with so many moving parts to the scheme, teams will just handle this differently and uniquely. 1. teams like the Rays will try to min/max and you will see them call up their top prospects at efficient and ideal times 2. most teams will probably just focus on development while avoiding the big negative outcomes Like the Pirates calling up Oneil Cruz in June this year. That gave him 110 service time days. He could not have realistically won any awards in 87 games so they were almost certain to not get screwed over. So they chose to control him for 6.5 years and just give him 87 big league games in 2022 in order to help him develop.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/yasiel-puig-pleads-guilty-to-lying-to-federal-investigators-in-gambling-case.html

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/adley-rutschman-earns-full-service-year-with-rookie-of-the-year-runner-up.html Interesting that the new rookie promotion rules matter in year 1 Seattle gets a bonus draft pick for having J Rod on their roster all year because he won ROTY. Meanwhile Rutschman would not have received a full year of service this season but because he finished second in ROTY he is rewarded with a full year of service. That is f***ing huge! Moves up his FA an entire season.

I think Statcast did not come into the league until Heyward was like 25. I bet he would less of a mystery if his entire first 6 years were during the Statcast era. Looks like he just had a chronic problem barreling up the ball, for his entire career. Like, he had a 2.8% barrel rate the year before the Cubs gave him the big deal.

RE: Trevino okay but it's not that bad 23rd in PA 15th in innings caught 10th in games played / appeared in #1 in accumulated defensive value by a wide margin If he's not eligible for the award because of playing time then it's literally ~10 catchers competing for it. Or less. That's kind of absurd to set the playing time bar that high for catchers, where almost none of them play more than 80% of the games.

okay but it's not that bad 23rd in PA 15th in innings caught 10th in games played / appeared in #1 in accumulated defensive value by a wide margin If he's not eligible for the award because of playing time then it's literally ~10 catchers competing for it. Or less.

Jansen is going to suck with the pitch clock. He's the slowest RP in baseball I think.

Projection systems can be pretty bad around the “edges”. I would not value the Kikuchi, Corbin, etc. projections much at all They are being regressed too far to the mean

Bichette - 3 years of control - probably goes 6M, 11M, 18M in arbitration while providing 12-15 WAR (96M to 120M in value vs. 35M in cost = $69M to $85M surplus) Acuna - 6 years of control - 17M AAV (102M) - say he averages 4 WAR per year (192M in value vs 102M in cost = $90M surplus) Acuna is worth more because year six is a clean team option (not an obligation) and years of control on an elite player are just worth something innately because of the upside. However, you can argue that Acuna is riskier because of his injury history. I guess there is an argument to them being pretty close in value. I think it's a no-brainer for Toronto given the roster construction right now.... and I'd add something to get it done... ... probably only something Atlanta wants to do if they think Grissom is not a shortstop at all.

Yeah I read that CRANE stepped in to get the Verlander signing done haha.

James Click was named the Astros GM in Jan 2020 Here are the players on their roster acquired during his GM tenure: Yainer Diaz Mauricio Dubon Hector Neris Ryne Stanek Seth Martinez I dunno. Maybe the thinking in Houston is that Click had little impact. The players play the games and the core was in place before Click.

Qualified catcher seasons since 1990 where the catcher was 23 or younger and was an above average hitter 1994 Pudge 112 wRC+ 1997 Kendall 119 wRC+ 2005 Mauer 108 wRC+ 2006 Mauer 141 wRC+ 2013 Sal Perez 106 wRC+ 2022 Kirk 129 wRC+ look at this f***ing company, lol. hall of famer, probable hall of famer, 37 WAR career catcher, and then the worst of them is a 7x all star you simply do not trade this guy unless the piece coming back is also a young player under control for many years who has a chance to be SPECIAL

For Garcia he's basically projected to be the almost exactly the same as 2022 so I buy that 100%. He doesn't have amazing stuff so I don't think there is any breakout potential. I don't know why anyone would expect less than those projections from Kirk. He's one of the best hitting prospects to come up this millennium, based on stats alone. And he just turned 24 this week. Happy birthday Kirk!

It's incredibly easy to make this too. 1. Pull the guaranteed money from Baseball Reference. 1a. If player is not guaranteed, just make up a salary for their arb years based on their WAR projection. 2. Project WAR across years of control. You can just use Steamer for the upcoming year and then age based adjustments. 3. Pick a $/WAR figure. Done. Trade value!

Nah they'd prefer to push text based "trade analysis" from social justice warriors

It's just an extremely rough tool Most of the time it's reasonable enough but in this instance it's clearly wrong I wish there was a way to do this on Fangraphs. It would not be hard for them to build out. Maybe where you could select the projection system to use.

Probably their projection model is not up to date. Website also has no info on their projection model other than to say they "do their own" and don't share how they do it. If you look at current projections for these guys Steamer (recently put on Fangraphs) has Kirk as twice the player as Garcia in 2023. I don't see how Garcia is worth even 75% of Kirk. Common sense! He's a pitcher!!!

Anderson pitched 16 innings in AAA guys. There is quality data from that sample on his stuff. He's likely not worth an MLB roster spot. Simple.

If they refuse to do O'Neill for Jansen then they can find a new trade partner. Kirk for O'Neill would be highway robbery. Hicks has no real value. Negligible value. Same with Alex Reyes. I mean I'd take either as a kicker but they don't move the needle.

Anderson got murdered in AAA this year with no strikeouts. The Rays would only do this if his stuff was horrible.