Laika

Buying high can make sense if you think the breakout is legit. Varsho's defense was as good as they thought and his defensive value will probably be a bit higher as a full time CF. The funny thing is that the IMPRESSION for Jays fans is that he can't hit at all and is a lost cause. But it's not really true - his offensive profile is just kind of on the razor's edge between acceptable and poor. His AVG and K rate were relatively stable compared to 2022 and 2021, when he was a 100 and 107 wRC+ player. His power was down a bit in 2023. So all it takes for him to swing from a nearly 110 wRC+ player to an 85 wRC+ player is some very minor bad luck on BABIP and a minor dip in power. That is to say, he's like one teeny tiny adjustment away from being exactly the same player he was in 2022. He needs to like, get 3 more successful bunts down and turn maybe 5 big flyout swings into homers. That's it.

Speaking of Bauer, I was looking at SP in the Japanese League for 2023. If you sort by strikeout rate and ignore pitchers who didn't throw 100 innings (so we are only looking at full time starters) the two standouts are: Bauer, 130.2 IP, 4.19 K/BB, 9.0 K/9, 3.03 RA9 Shota Imanaga, 148 IP, 7.25 K/BB, 10.6 K/9, 2.80 RA9 Imanaga is 30 and getting posted this offseason. Bauer's stats give a nice benchmark - Imanaga might be "better than Bauer".

Huge props to Rachel Luba for not dumping Bauer. She looks like Aces at this point. I wonder if we see her pick up some other massive clients in the next couple of years.

I think he went 5 innings in his first two AFL starts. He went 5 IP a bunch in 2022. Kyle Harrison never even went 5 innings in the minors in 2023, then after being promoted SFG let him go 5+ a few times including 6.1 in his second start. Toronto and San Fran clearly think of Harrison and Tiedemann in a similar way. I wouldn't expect Tiedemann to come up and be overly babied. It's a new world. Teams aren't training most SP prospect for endurance anymore. They would probably handle him like Kikuchi to begin his career.

Scherzer could suck though

Cope.

So Jim got baited by connorp. Then 54 got baited by Jim. The circle of life.

AA has many feminine traits tbh

Then don't engage in debate! Be the change you want to see.

Toronto should hire her to raise the T levels in the boardroom tbh

The Blue Jays should hire her.

Matthews might score 100 this year!

Big Byron Buxton energy that's for sure

Awhaaaaaaaa I thought you loved Jazz

Belt seems like a good sport. I'd guess Hicks or Merrifield.

Nobody said they are the same! The important question is whether the two different game environments have a non-linear impact on different player archetypes. One analogy would be say you trying to get laid in Manhattan vs Tuscaloosa. Very different dating environments but you are still striking out in both places, 100% of the time. Some dude who is a solid Alabama 7 might wheel in Tuscaloosa but never touch a girl in New York. So you suck everywhere but he only sucks in Manhattan. We already know that elite relievers can be more valuable in the playoffs, because they can have a bigger impact; managers will let them pitch every game, or pitch 2 innings, and generally pitch MORE than they do in the regular season. We already know that elite SP can be more valuable in the playoffs because they can start more frequently. There is some continued discussion on whether or not high contact hitters are more valuable in the playoffs. This is probably because there is a higher portion of elite pitching, so being able to just put the ball in play and not strikeout could be worth something. I have heard some debate on this. Some nerds agree, some do not.

do you even know what non-linearity means?

Yeah the only things you can count on showing up are the things of minimal impact that happen all the time. Like singles and walks! A slugger hits a homer once every 5 games or so.

You are conflating things. The time it takes to measure true talent does not = the chance to have an impact in any one game, or a small string of games. The things that take longer to measure actually can have a BIGGER impact when the relevant event(s) occur. Like, one clutch catch with runners on can be more impactful than a home run.

One thing Shapiro said that made sense to me is: "there is a competitive advantage in organizational continuity" Basically, cleaning house and going scorched earth can have negative impacts. You lose valuable people every time, even incidentally. You lose communication networks and fracture working relationships. Stuff like that.

Most of this is just stupid drivel that we would expect someone who works in "hospitality" to spit out. The only way to definitely have a team that has better odds in the postseason vs. the regular season is on the SP side, because the rotation is smaller. If a team has two proper Aces but bad SP4 and SP5, they will be a relatively better playoff team. That much is obvious. The rest of what you are saying is super dumb. A lumbering outfielder's bad defense can have just as much impact on a single game as a home run swing. Do you not remember Nelson Cruz in the outfield on David Freese's legendary triple? Any decent outfielder catches that ball.

Yeah, if a bunch of people flip coins against each other someone will inevitably go on a winning streak. It doesn't mean they are necessarily special. Houston might even have been cheating for a chunk of their playoff wins!!!

Friend, connorp is on here saying the Phillies have the secret sauce

The point remains that the playoffs are extremely random! Stars and Aces don't have the differential impact vs. the regular season that connorp wants you to think they have Replacement level scrubs like Nick Castellanos can and will win games and even entire series. That's how random the playoffs are. Aces only have a differential impact because teams can use them in 1/3 or 1/4 games instead of 1/5 of games. They don't have special added impact within any specific game. It's over.

2 homers off Strider is an extreme fluke, yes.