Laika

Some basic research. It seems very hard to sit 96+ and have a stuff+ below 90 on a 4 seamer (there is basically nobody) but once you get closer to 95 with the sitting velo it is possible Examples: Brent Honeywell, 95 mph, 71 stuff+ Charlie Morton, 95 mph, 74 stuff+ Chris Martin, 95.9 mph, 90 stuff+ Johan Oviedo, 95.8 mph, 83 stuff+ Logan Gilbert, 95.8 mph, 88 stuff+ Sam Hentges, 95.7 mph, 77 stuff+ Jon Gray, 95.7 mph, 82 stuff+ Just a big difference between sitting 96.5 and 95.5. So, some 96 mph fastballs on WBC video is meaningless. A stuff+ rating of 75 is completely possible if he sits 95 or so with really bad shape. In the 96+ average mph bucket, there is basically nobody sub 90 stuff+ and only a few guys below 100. The twitter reference from the secondary source with a 100 "stuff" rating is not the same measurement, it is some wStuff metric I have never heard of. I kind of trust Eno's stray tweet more tbh. Looking to see this guy working on cutters and power sinkers in spring.

Alek Manoah can be replaced for a couple million bucks in free agency, haha His projections = Rich Hill and Noah Syndergaard Of course you trade him for Kim

Lol imagine bidding on Adam Duvall

It's possible that Eno has bad data? It certainly doesn't look that bad. Yeah I'm actually going to assume the data was flawed. Misreads or something. TOR isn't giving 4/32 to someone with a fastball that isn't at least close to average

Yes eno tweeted that it was horrible someone tried to comp him to Justin Steele and eno said something like "difference between 90 stuff+ and sub 75"

Guys like Adam Ottavino have been effective relievers with... below average fastball by stuff+ but really good benders. It's a relatively common archetype. From watching this Cuban pitch I am pretty confident he can be an effective RP unless he is a complete idiot like Esmil Rogers or something. I don't think Erik Swanson has a great stuff+ fastball. Anthony Bass doesn't, I think he threw a sinker more in his good years. Just need to get his 4S up to a 90+ stuff+ grade or find an average-ish sinker.

higher than I would have expected on a few here

ZiPS always has low numbers on the top teams. 88 for ZiPS and 93 for Steamer or FGDC would make sense to me. Based on what I remember.

That's fine but I think the roster last year also projected for like 95+ wins so it probably was, at the start of 2023, objectively better than the current team as of today What is going on here with a lot of you (I know this is condescending) is you are conflating results with talent, they just aren't always congruent in sports. The 2024 roster could project for a few less wins than the 2023 one did but still reasonably end up winning more games than the 2024 roster. And most of that is because the 2023 team was like, historically unlucky on offense. You can't look at a team 8th in wOBA but 14th in runs scored and assume they deserved to be 14th in runs scored, that is bonkers. 2022 and 2021 they were top 4 in both categories (wOBA and runs). The comparison to the 2023 roster should use preseason projected wins, tbh. If they projected for 95 wins and you think they are 3 wins worse, then you would expect this team to win 92.

Not really There are "common sense" reasons for the projections Vlad, Bo, Kirk, Jansen, Schneider, Varsho, Biggio, Espinal, IKF are mostly presumptive starters and in their 20s. Most of them SHOULD bounce back or be better based on extremely basic principles like their age, how much contact they make, and how hard they hit the baseball. You can go through the team and point out a couple of geezers here and there, or the age of the pitching staff, but I really don't care when 7/9 presumptive starters are still in their 20s. Common sense says the offense can really only get better vs 2023. And if you want to think very linear, in terms of players lost and added while ignoring projections, it doesn't even look bad considering it's Jan 18: Nobody of consequence was lost on the pitching side as Hicks was a hired gun anyway and Ryu was a non-contributor. CHAPMAN out - replaced his defense at least with IKF and guess what Davis Schneider has a better projected wRC+ than Matt Chapman (not shocking) KK out - replaced by a genetic replica of KK, you would swear it is the same dude BELT out - okay but it's January 18th and the FA list is still crowded with DH options MERRIFIELD out - who really cares? we all watched him the last couple years. IN --> this Cuban arm and whatever he represents, could be a massive upgrade on the SP5 spot for all we know The thrust of this is that I don't think you can even find a reasonable argument that the team will be worse than 2023 and there are plenty of reason to think it can and should be just as good or a better.

The Jays are something like: Top 5 SP Top 10 RP Top 10 offense Top 5 defense Top 5 in resources Middle of the pack current farm system. Say 15th to 20th.

Some of this is just so pessimistic I kind of worry about your mental health. Are you depressed? The Jays project for 90 wins, fifth by Steamer in baseball, 2nd in the division. For them to win 80 games multiple members of the team might have to literally die Their projected offense is actually good, believe it or not. Not elite but comfortably above average. You essentially have the worst possible opinion of the organization in every conceivable way. Nothing is as bad as you think. Cheer up!!!

Having seen Jordan Hicks extensively I really have no confidence that he can be a SP Rodriguez probably has a better chance to throw 120 effective innings

haha yeah it kind of does doesn't it Rodriguez does have a turbo sinker thing and a changeup, they might be decent

Eno Sarris @enosarris Yariel Rodriguez had a plus slider (128 Stuff+) in the WBC, but that model didn't like the fastball much. Was dominant once Chunichi moved him to the bullpen, I think that's where his home will be.

Bleh. He has to be pretty good to justify this. Needs to be a setup man or viable bulk pitcher / SP. Now I don't really like it. Could have just paid Chatt Mapman an extra few million or something. Jays might pay their swing man $8M while paying their starting 3B $7.5M. You sure about that, Ross? You sure about that?

#5/LR - White and Yariel fight for it #6 in AAA - Francis #7 in AAA - Tiedemann #8 staying at the complex until he apologizes for 2023 and adds 2 mph to his fastball - Manoah

I would honestly be surprised if he gets that much money Was a pure reliever in 2022 and didn't even pitch professional in 2023 The package (96+ with good spin and other secondaries that might play) is interesting but not 32 million dollars interesting IMO. Fujinami last year was a 28 year old with better stuff, coming off 107 okay innings in Japan, and he only got $3.25M guaranteed from Oakland... I am hoping this is closer to that. Something in the low risk, high reward category. Obviously, I don't know how his stuff grades so perhaps he is really good and a multi year deal is in order... I dunno...

This is a pretty exciting signing. He could just be a middle reliever or swing-man, but the stuff looks promising. There is youtube video of him from the last WBC where he threw like 8 innings. Also, he pitched 6 innings against Canada in 2021 WBC qualifier and whiffed 11 guys. Looks like he can spin it and throws 96+

Sounds like the Jays have signed this Yariel Rodríguez guy but the deal can't be made official until some immigration s*** is sorted. Or, more cynically, the deal is tentative and might not happen because of the immigration s***

Varsho will out-WAR Manoah by at least 5 WAR in 2024

Did you watch him pitch? It was perhaps the worst demonstration of major league starting pitching I have ever seen. The only comparable season that I have personally watched that may have been as thoroughly awful would be.... Gustavo Chacin after he got figured out. A lot of the other modern SP disasters in Toronto, the players did something a bit better. Kikuchi 2022 was a nightmare but he still missed bats so you could see how he could improve. Ricky Romero sucked at the end but he ate innings in 2012 even when he could barely walk. Aaron Sanchez was goddawful for a bit but his stuff was still good and he remained "hard to hit" sort of. I think people are kidding themselves if they think he deserves another chance, or it was just some injury he can get over, or the sample size matters at all. If he was in Atlanta AA already would have traded him for a AAA reliever

it is unfortunate but this happens from time to time with pitchers they just decline in their 20s and they are done sometimes they get hurt, sometimes the league figures them out, sometimes they do a bunch of blow and crash a speed boat into a bridge GTA style Toronto should expect nothing from him he never had good stuff, really. it was mid/back rotation stuff at best.

I actually don't know why we would expect a bounce back from Manoah It's not like Vlad where there are good underlying numbers Manure was just absolute dogshit with s***** stuff and s***** command and a s***** attitude I am expecting nothing and would prefer him to be AAA depth out of the gates

It's probably NOT a lack of effort. I would not assume that a group of NHL players just does not work as hard as other groups. It probably just looks like a lack of effort. I bet their offense is easy to counteract or adjust to in games, or something like that, so they are tactically prone to getting shut down all of a sudden. This is why the teams who are consistently good on defense or in a two-way sense, like Boston, just look "better" on an ongoing basis than the offensively focused teams like EDM or TOR.