Laika

Oh you trust Atkins do you. You trust Ross. Cute.

Well, it's a hard no unless he costs less than $100M.

It KIND OF doesn't even sound like there was bidding and a back and forth. There often is not. Everything is based on models so most teams are around the same number. From the tidbits that have been reported it sounds like Ohtani felt everyone out for a few weeks, then told teams the kind of contract he wanted, and the Dodgers eventually offered it formally so he signed with them.

2021 - one of the worst players in baseball 2022 - one of the most disappointing hitters in baseball (WAR saved by defense and baserunning) 2023 - .331 xwOBA vs .370 wOBA; no real improvement to barrel and hard hit rates vs 2022 and 2021. actually the worst hard hit rate of his career. I think he has succeeded at saving his career, he's just not a star anymore. He is more of a 2-3 WAR player. He will probably hit .257/.321/.450 with decent defense and BsR for a few years. That's an $80M player, not a $150M or $200M player... ... I'd rather just sign ALMOST ANYBODY who can play the outfield. Gurriel, Soler, Bader, Teoscar.... plug the hole with a geezer like Pham, Brantley. Like, what if you can get Teoscar for $50M? That is so much better, risk/reward.

Maybe Nicky Frazzzzzoo

Wow big money

It's just business, baby. Relax.

Sal Fasano?

Good deal, I think Lugo is pretty good and he will earn that and then some.

As good as Tyson Heineyman

I think I have decided that Toronto should sign Joey Gallo and deploy him as the starting 3B out of spring training

you're a fringe guy

Fangraphs kind of likes the system, judging from the grades and the blurb at the bottom. System Overview In last season’s System Overview, we noted the way this system skewed toward high-variance guys, and that largely remains true. The Jays have taken seven-figure shots on multiple high schoolers in each of the last several drafts, and Tiedemann was a junior college pick. All but a few of the prospects with “grades of impact” in the 40+ FV tier and above are volatile, high-variance players. This system is stocked with meaningful redundancy, with plan As and plan Bs. There are pockets of players who are comparable in many ways layered throughout the org, perhaps as a way of mitigating the risk associated with those high-variance guys. You can see the trends in low-release height guys (Tiedemann, Barriera, Macko, Cooke and Juenger) and pervasive slider-first approaches to pitching (most effectively Brock and Cooke) in this system. Meanwhile, the bones of the position player group include bat-to-ball specialists with little power (Jimenez and Kasevich, among others) and power hitters with iffy defensive homes (Orelvis, Doughty, De Jesus, and Palmegiani). Including the many players who recently graduated from rookie status (the likes of Davis Schneider, Nathan Lukes, and Otto Lopez), the Blue Jays should be able to stock their bench and reserve role group from within for the foreseeable future. Free agent departures, especially Matt Chapman’s, open up playing time at second and third base. We think Santiago Espinal, Jimenez, Barger and Martinez are more talented than both the OBP-driven Schenider/Cavan Biggio combo currently projected in the RosterResource starting lineup, and the contact/speed duo of Lopez and Ernie Clement. Schneider has already done enough in the big leagues to call him an unfortunate omission from last year’s list, but it looked like the book on him was out late in the season. There are so many possible permutations of this 2B/3B combo on the 40-man that the Jays should be able to backfill a lot of Chapman’s production from within. ^ that sounds like a blurb for a farm that would rank middle of the pack. Nice to get some industry confirmation of what a (very) few of us noticed during 2023 - that the system is trending up and is deceptively good, or at least deep.

Can't wait for MLB salaries and contracts to become a ponzi that is directly tied to a bunch of shady US hedge funds! fun!

This logic stops mattering when you are so high above the marginal income tax brackets His effective tax rate is near the top marginal rate whether he makes $25M or $70M

It can't be an income tax dodge. I bet the highest marginal tax rate in Japan is as bad as California. The difference may only be a few points. I guess he could take up permanent residency somewhere else. Weird though.

It would take Toronto decades of success to be seen on the same pedestal as the Dodgers or Yankees The current players and recent events are almost completely irrelevant

Only so much you can do

Alright So at the end of the day it's basically a 10/$440 contract for Ohtani Real close to what most pundits expected going into the offseason The $700M figure is just for advertising.

No matter how you f*** the chicken here, the Dodgers are winning.

Where did you read that? It can be an interest bearing escrow account. $68M compounded 5% annually for 10 years is like $111M haha.

It's the same thing though. The non-monetary factors are part of the bid.

It's all added revenue though. Are they incurring more expenses because Ohtani is on the team? Maybe, but they would be negligible. Anyway, you are generally right. The point was just to illustrate the absurdity of the whole thing. I am sure the hardcore math more or less tells you that $700M deferred is about the same as a reasonable contract today. Say, the Harper deal.

It's honestly a f***ing stupid deal for Ohtani UNLESS the income tax savings he can get are massive (which they very well may be...) For the Dodgers, it's amazing. They will make $25M annually in added marketing for the first few years, almost guaranteed, regardless of what happens on the field. So they are net +$23M or so in 2024. What is 23M compounded by like 8% annually, for a decade? Like $54M? The first year of marketing money basically pays for the first year of deferred payment in 2034. The contract ALMOST pays for itself. And I am sure "Guggenheim Partners" people think they can do better than 8 points when the prime rate is like 6%. Ohtani would probably have been better off, financially, just taking a straight 10/$400 deal from a team. Then investing the money. Big caveat there being the income tax implications which, I dunno. But I cannot imagine that Japan is a "tax haven" for income tax.... California certainly isn't... Ohtani is not moving to Florida or Dubai. Unless he does. Who knows. I am sure he left significant money on the table from the Blue Jays. If he rejected 10/$600M which was mostly NOT deferred, then he left hundreds of millions on the table, right.

Dodgers ownership group is basically a hedge fund, right? Guggenheim