Laika

He's sorta nuts to not take that offer at this point. Seems like every team believes they are only bidding against themselves at this point, for their choice remaining free agent. Boston got burned by that idea but it still may be true for Bellinger-NYY.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-zips-projections-toronto-blue-jays/ Jays 2026 ZiPS Vlad's #2 comp is Pujols Kirk's #1 comp is Yadi Okamoto's #1 comp is Kyle Seager Szymborski thinks the bats are fine and the Jays would benefit from a SP more than Tucker or Bo. Most interesting projection is probably just the bullpen and those comments:

Grant could not handle the emotions of the playoffs I'm not sure he even made it to the World Series, he might have deleted his account after one of the Bryce Miller games

ZiPS

George $24m Goose $23m Biebs $16m Varsho $10.75m Lauer $5m Straw $7.4m Yimi $7.5m Ideally Santander bounces back and looks like a decent DH candidate from 2027 on and Cease/Yesavage are entrenched as the SP1 and SP2 so there is no pressure to replace Gausman and Bieber with frontline SP Impossible to cheaply replace Varsho though And I will be sad boy if Springer has a full Nelson Cruz arm until 40 and some of it happens in a different uniform

The one thing that makes me think Toronto might be done is that the Okamoto signing took them neatly just past the final tax threshold. I think it's a 60% tax on every dollar spent past $304 million, and the Jays are just beyond that now. Signing Tucker for $35M and then paying a 60% tax for all of that is pretty thirsty

Will be funny to see Boston dump Devers at $29m aav and then turn around and pay someone like Bo more money annually

His numbers under the hood are not very promising His power and plate discipline stuff is not good enough for a corner profile and he doesn't seem to have actual CF defensive chops Needs to make significant progress in one direction to carve out playing time. Needs to either become a pure CFer (not likely) or improve his K rate and K/BB by a lot (also hard) or at least become a real power threat (probably the path of least resistance? stop trying to be a complete player and start trying to at least be a dangerous hitter? Popkins? I dunno)

Well he's younger than Semien was by like 3 years, and even 1.5 years younger than Adames, so you can keep the AAV the same and add some term $300m is bonkers but there is nothing outlandish about 8/$200m

Like, are there any helpful precedents for Varsho in free agency? Seems to me that for players like him, most of the time when they reach free agency their flaws have been exposed and they largely go year to year. I remember JBJ leveraging scarcity and a good abbreviated 2020 into a 2 year deal with Milwaukee, lol The other side of "CFers reaching FA" are the guys like Springer and Marte who were signing deals to no longer be CFers. I would extend Varsho for a few years but I'm not desperate to pay him for his glovework at age 30 onwards

Cedric Mullins and Harrison Bader, lots of examples of CFers with fringier bats not really getting paid or declining and showing the risks Varsho is a massive platoon risk and fringe bat, if Boras and him are going to ask for the moon they can have fun in free agency

Not really, a team can just non-tender someone who has an inflated arbitration projection then they'll sign a FA deal for whatever they are actually worth

If Skubal has another 6+ WAR year and stays healthy he should definitely set some kind of SP contract record. Cole got 9/$324m for his age 29 season onward. Skubal will actually be one year older. Is he going to get 9/$360m? $40m AAV?

Damn. Bad blood. Extension never happening in Detroit.

"Phillies meeting with Bo Bichette on Monday" is a hilariously specific and meaningless leak Probably just the Phillies trying to make Realmuto hurry up and take their offer

Bo wants 10/$300m is projected for just 7/$189m Tucker wants 10/$400m is projected for just 8/$280m Bellinger wants 8 years is projected for just 5/$135m These are very big gaps. Bregman also has a high price tag, obviously. Probably 6 or 7 years. I wonder what Framber and Ranger are looking for? Not a lot of smoke around them, all offseason.

ARTICLE XVI—Deferred Compensation There shall be no limitations on either the amount of deferred compensation or the percentage of total compensation attributable to deferred compensation for which a Uniform Player’s Contract may provide. ... Deferred compensation obligations incurred in a Contract executed on or after September 30, 2002 must be fully funded by the Club, in an amount equal to the present value of the total deferred compensation obligation, on or before the second July 1 following the championship season in which the deferred compensation is earned. For purposes of this Article XVI, full funding of the present value of deferred compensation obligations shall mean that the Club must have funded, for the duration of and without interruption in each year, the current present value of the then outstanding deferred payments, discounted by 5% annually. If the prime interest rate in effect at The J.P. Morgan Chase Bank on the immediately preceding November 1 is 7% or higher, the Parties shall meet and confer regarding this Article XVI discount rate and may, with due notice to the Clubs, amend such discount rate effective the next succeeding July 1. ... Unless the Uniform Player’s Contract provides otherwise, a Club may fund deferred compensation obligations in such manner as it elects, provided that: (a) the funding method used by the Club must be such that the amount(s) funded are exclusively for the uses and purposes of satisfying the deferred compensation obligation(s) being funded; (b) the amount(s) funded are maintained in the form of unencumbered assets comprising cash or cash equivalents and/or registered and unrestricted readily marketable securities, unless a Club obtains the Parties’ prior written authorization of an alternative form; and (c) such amount(s) funded are subject to the claims of the Club’s general creditors. Each Club shall certify quarterly to the Office of the Commissioner by January 31, April 30, July 31, and October 31 of each year (and the Office of the Commissioner shall provide such certifications to the Association within 30 days of their receipt) the manner in which its deferred compensation obligations that were required to be funded by the immediately preceding July 1 have been funded. In addition, upon each quarterly certification, each Club shall provide to the Office of the Commissioner all records relating to its deferred compensation funding arrangements, and the Office of the Commissioner shall supply any such records to the Association upon request.

"super utility" semantics abound they are paying him to be an every day player, that's all the matters. There are "super utility" players like Zobrist who are super because they can play multiple valuable positions and play every day. And then there are "super utility" players like Mauricio Dubon who are super because they can play every f***ing position. Okamoto will be neither of those, Nightengale is a dork, what he probably means is Toronto might move Okamoto around between 3B/1B/LF/DH. That's not a super utility player, lol. That's JD Davis. That's a corner bat with an undetermined defensive home.

I believe they need to fund the account by the summer two years after the year in which it was earned. So money earned in 2025 but deferred needs to be funded by July 1st 2027. That's a deadline - they are allowed to fund the account with the present value of the deferred $68M immediately after it is earned. I believe I read that the account needs to be funded assuming 5% growth. The 5% thing is an MLB rule? It's interesting that the 5% assumed growth is an MLB rule. I think the US10Y treasury bonds are like 4.2% right now but they were way lower in Covid and over 10% in the 80s. Interesting this this interest rate does not fluctuate under the CBA and is not tied to anything... The two year grace period is interesting because it shows how the rules benefit rich teams. Yes, the Dodgers would have to fund a bit more into the account if they wait but maybe they want to wait in certain years, for flexibility reasons? I am guessing the player contracts would remove any discretion by the team. I bet the team HAS to fund the account and buy a guaranteed investment that guaranteed $68M at maturity. So if treasury bonds collapse, the team has to stuff more money in the account when they fund it. Guessing.

Seeing the Yankees hold the bag forever on all their fools gold prospects is a beautiful thing Volpe, Jasson, Spencer Jones, etc.

They should ban deferred money in the next CBA as a marketing thing simply because 90% of fans cannot and will never understand accounting principles or the concept of interest and present day value

ANYWAY Cubs acquiring Ed Cabrera, Owen Caissie 🍁 apparently is in the deal

Now what if they match the Dodgers payroll and lose in the WC three years in a row again? lol

Yeah this aggressive offseason is an OBVIOUS reaction by Rogers to how much extra money the postseason run made them

I do think deferrals are a toy that the richer teams can use more often simply because they have the long-term financial flexibility and security to do it The teams with less money can't or don't feel like they can put that money on the books down the line I do think it will be addressed in some way in the CBA. I doubt that all owners are happy that the hedge fund owned Dodgers can and do use deferrals like they do But there is tons of misinformation about deferred contracts in MLB and the fans are very misinformed or willfully ignorant. I don't think it's necessarily some huge loophole.