Laika

Even if I don't like Bellinger it would be fun to get him for even money with the Yankees offer, or slightly more. Maybe the narrative could be that he went to Toronto because he was frustrated the Yankees were being so cheap with him. Or he wanted to win so he chose Toronto. I would enjoy the stories.

seems like a no the rumours make it feel like they just followed his market and then when his price got too high they signed Okamoto

it probably should be his role but I don't remember them making any Schneider vs. Ernie starting decisions in 2025 it might be more likely that DS is the platoon bat they insert for Gimenez, against lefties, with Clement sliding to SS. more likely than not this will end up being dictated by injuries or one of Gimenez/Clement just outright stinking

Yes, as presently constructed. It would make sense to hedge and bring in a guy who can play 2B and hit RHP. I don't really see any in free agency. Adam Frazier is ancient, Luis Rengifo is not good on D and hits righties worse. Ramon Urias is a RHB but he has neutral career splits, decent projections and okay defense. But is he any different than Leo Jimenez? This line of discussion is probably why they checked in on Yoan Moncada, before 3B was filled by Okamoto. Insurance against Ernie being unplayable every day against RHP.

Clement's career platoon split is not that weird 82 wRC+ vs RHP and 98 vs LHP He does get jammed by RHP you can see it on the IFFB% The main reason to play him is the elite glove, anyway. Dude might be a +15 3B and 2B, +10 SS, something like that. Gimenez and Ernie were really made to platoon with each other, lol.

slump avoidance is almost impossible when you rely so much on batted ball luck

At present, the Jays project like this: LF 1.9 fWAR CF 2.2 fWAR (you can add half a win though as they have Varsho with negative defense) RF 2.6 fWAR The team could improve the LF and RF projections by just benching Santander, as well, since a Lukes/Schneider platoon projects better than him but FGDC has Santander getting 567 PA. Bellinger's projections range from 2.1 to 3.0 fWAR (OOPSY to FGDC). Kyle Tucker has a composite projection of around 4.5 fWAR, about 2 full wins above Bellinger. You can sign Kyle Tucker and then bank that notable improvement and figure out the roster shakedown later. But signing Bellinger doesn't make sense - it is quite an inefficient use of resources. You are getting a 0.5 win upgrade MAYBE and then dealing with an awkward personnel issue where Santander is in a timeshare with someone and isn't even given a true chance to rebound, or you are benching Barger, or you are platooning Okamoto from day 1 so you can play Barger. The SP project like this: Cease 187 IP 3.8 WAR Gausman 185 IP 2.8 WAR Bieber 143 IP 2.3 WAR Yesavage 137 IP 2.1 WAR Ponce 129 IP 2.1 WAR Berrios 111 IP 1.2 WAR Does Framber Valdez' 3.7 WAR projection move the needle much more for Toronto? It could make sense. SP depth charts are much more fluid and there are obvious risks on this chart (Bieber, injury; Ponce, performance; Berrios, injury and performance). Yesavage had what, 139 total innings last year including the playoffs? They probably want to play it safe with him so we might not see much more than 150. Gausman at 35 has to be considered a huge injury risk even if he is the type to pitch through anything and pending free agency will incentivize him to do so. Berrios is kind of a complete write off for me, I would just expect slop innings since the dude's stuff is completely gone.

It would kind of be repeating the same mistake they made with Springer... playing a fringe CF in CF after 30. We saw how patrolling CF as he aged affected Springer negatively, for a long time. Offense down + injury risk up. Maybe even got in his head a bit in terms of what kind of player he should be, how he should train etc.

Bellinger might not be a starting quality defensive CF right now, let alone in 2027. I don't think him covering CF would be much of a consideration

SS and LF are the worst positions by league relative projections. I will ignore the CF projection of Varsho's defense because it makes no sense. Bellinger is a notable roster upgrade I just can't get comfortable with the idea of him and long term money

Closer is not a position. The Jays have a good pen. Top 7, maybe top 5.

lol Chris Collabello was a waiver claim and so was Hendriks the proper year You are talking about something different here and if you are using hindsight instead of process why include the massive flop Saunders

The big difference with some of those past off-seasons is the Jays always had to overpay and do desperate s***, like the Dickey and Jose Reyes / Josh Johnson trades or the BJ Ryan and Burnett deals, etc. Even the Russell Martin contract was massive in context and despite him being Canadian they had to overpay him. Only real exceptions were the Donaldson and Chapman trades. You can slap on A+ on both of those trades of course. But in terms of grading the entire off-season, this one seems different. We have an upper echelon organization now that can swing money around but seems to know how to do it prudently. The signals for future years seem massive to me. Feelsgoodman.

No off-season grade for Toronto other than an A makes sense This was probably the best off-season ever for the franchise. Big signings and value signings and big international signings and most importantly nothing desperate.

he's probably untouchable he shouldn't be untouchable yes it should land him no it won't land him because he will not be traded but it should but it won't because he won't

He probably would have been the 3B for Philly too

Nah he has about as much versality as Davis Schneider He has basically just been an emergency SS. Only played 3B meaningfully back in 2022. Dude is a LF/2B. And he's even a minus OF by OAA, and a minus 2B by DRS. 27th percentile sprint speed and consistently negative baserunning... I hate him.

But who are you benching for him? I dunno. Dude hit 10 homers last year. He has THIRTEENTH percentile bat speed. He has below average sprint speed. He has a noodle arm. Despite the defensive versality he has negative OAA. I'm out, man. This is a dude with soft tools who builds most of his value on singles and not being a butcher at a few different positions. You take playing time away from someone like Ernie or Barger for him, you are actually just REDUCING the productive ceiling of the roster!

Brendan Donovan has projections between 2.5 and 2.8 fWAR in 520 to 580 PA That's probably quite a mild upgrade on the roster. Maybe 0.5 to 1 win?

I mean good thing they didn't let Vlad walk and think they could just sign Tucker and Bo instead lol

he's worth that lol it's fine

It's definitely a novel tactic that only the richer teams can use. The gaps widen.

In a lot of ways these short term high AAV contracts JUST MAKE MORE SENSE. The old standard for desirable players was you hook them on some long term contract that UNDERPAYS THEM immediately in exchange for OVERPAYING THEM at the end. Why? Who decided to do that? Did the teams want to stretch out the money? Did the players prefer predictability and security? Did nobody care about the politics of the last few years? Bo Bichette projects for about 4 WAR. We know the market price of one win, for most player archetypes, is up over $10M now. $42M makes sense. He is expected to be worth that in 2026, and perhaps also 2027 and 2028 given his age. It's not really a "deal" for the team or the player in the immediate term. How much will he be worth from 2029 onward, when he is 31+? Who the f*** knows. Why pay for him so far in the future? Especially give his hacker plate discipline, lower tier athleticism, and injuries in recent years.

Maybe the era of the 10 year contract is over, aside from true Superstars? Teams have seen how agonizing some of those deals become and want no part of them - they would rather almost double the short term AAVs.