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Laika

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Everything posted by Laika

  1. Laika
    https://www.fantrax.com/newui/fantasy/joinLeague.go?leagueId=mb52855plrmv405n Invite link for that draft n hold league Details subject to change, particularly roster size based on how many people join. Draft in next few weeks. Slow draft with 60 to 90 minute windows (queue necessary) 5x5 scoring, classic roto Weekly lineups for the first time!!!! No adds, drops or trades. Just draft a huge organization of like 36 dudes or more, then set your best weekly lineup every Sunday or Monday. That's it.
  2. Laika
    Nobody knows He's either becomes a dynasty cornerstone this year or this is your last chance to sell
  3. Laika
    Definitely free
  4. Laika
    Robert Stephenson contract kinda wild isn't it?
  5. Laika
    I like you, Sprinkles
  6. Laika
    Annual tradition, going to make a new draft n hold league so I can do a draft. I'm thinking this year... - Draft and Hold with no adds, drops, or trades - Roto - basic 5x5 stats - weekly lineups! - deep rosters but fairly standard active lineup size So it's draft and hold but you need to make a weekly lineup setting decision every Sunday or Monday Like the post if you would join Maybe a slow draft?
  7. Laika
    Nah
  8. Laika
    No, we spit them out as projections because they are projections Reasonable disagreements with projections are allowed, depending on the logic
  9. Laika
    League average power, plus speed, plus defense I wouldn't normally advocate trading someone with "four years of control" for a rental but having seen Manoah pitch last year and having assessed his attitude and girth and the way his general stupid face looks, I have made this choice
  10. Laika
    Ha-Seong Kim is coming off back to back 5+ bWAR seasons, 4 fWAR seasons, and fills an immediate need on the infield. That's not some wild dump of Manoah for a jobber with no upside. Toronto probably has, at this point, some offseason insight into what Manoah is doing and how his still is looking or developing in the lab so they have more information than us to inform a trade, anyway. If his s*** looks to be recovering, then keep him. If it looks as flat as 2023, then there isn't much reasonable hope of upside is there? Sometimes the right move is to dump a loser. A s*** stock that has lost 80% of its value can always lose another 80% of its value.
  11. Laika

    NBA Thread

    Laika replied to admin's topic in Other Sports

    I cried
  12. Laika
    Not sure teams look so much at WAR when it comes to elite closers It becomes more about leveraged value and possible playoff impact
  13. Laika
    Well, at least it will be a good DH + this Cuban wildcard rather than just a DH
  14. Laika
    But Kim doesn't take any playing time from Schneider IMO, as DS is a 2B/LF. Kim slides in at 3B and is the upgrade on IKF. IKF bumps Espinal into absolute trade bait and maybe turns him into a B prospect or something.
  15. Laika
    Isn't that good? If he differs from average in one plane of movement, there is potential?
  16. Laika
    Welp. At least Orelvis is back in there.
  17. Laika
    Some basic research. It seems very hard to sit 96+ and have a stuff+ below 90 on a 4 seamer (there is basically nobody) but once you get closer to 95 with the sitting velo it is possible Examples: Brent Honeywell, 95 mph, 71 stuff+ Charlie Morton, 95 mph, 74 stuff+ Chris Martin, 95.9 mph, 90 stuff+ Johan Oviedo, 95.8 mph, 83 stuff+ Logan Gilbert, 95.8 mph, 88 stuff+ Sam Hentges, 95.7 mph, 77 stuff+ Jon Gray, 95.7 mph, 82 stuff+ Just a big difference between sitting 96.5 and 95.5. So, some 96 mph fastballs on WBC video is meaningless. A stuff+ rating of 75 is completely possible if he sits 95 or so with really bad shape. In the 96+ average mph bucket, there is basically nobody sub 90 stuff+ and only a few guys below 100. The twitter reference from the secondary source with a 100 "stuff" rating is not the same measurement, it is some wStuff metric I have never heard of. I kind of trust Eno's stray tweet more tbh. Looking to see this guy working on cutters and power sinkers in spring.
  18. Laika
    Alek Manoah can be replaced for a couple million bucks in free agency, haha His projections = Rich Hill and Noah Syndergaard Of course you trade him for Kim
  19. Laika
    Lol imagine bidding on Adam Duvall
  20. Laika
    It's possible that Eno has bad data? It certainly doesn't look that bad. Yeah I'm actually going to assume the data was flawed. Misreads or something. TOR isn't giving 4/32 to someone with a fastball that isn't at least close to average
  21. Laika
    Yes eno tweeted that it was horrible someone tried to comp him to Justin Steele and eno said something like "difference between 90 stuff+ and sub 75"
  22. Laika
    Guys like Adam Ottavino have been effective relievers with... below average fastball by stuff+ but really good benders. It's a relatively common archetype. From watching this Cuban pitch I am pretty confident he can be an effective RP unless he is a complete idiot like Esmil Rogers or something. I don't think Erik Swanson has a great stuff+ fastball. Anthony Bass doesn't, I think he threw a sinker more in his good years. Just need to get his 4S up to a 90+ stuff+ grade or find an average-ish sinker.
  23. Laika
    higher than I would have expected on a few here
  24. Laika
    ZiPS always has low numbers on the top teams. 88 for ZiPS and 93 for Steamer or FGDC would make sense to me. Based on what I remember.
  25. Laika
    That's fine but I think the roster last year also projected for like 95+ wins so it probably was, at the start of 2023, objectively better than the current team as of today What is going on here with a lot of you (I know this is condescending) is you are conflating results with talent, they just aren't always congruent in sports. The 2024 roster could project for a few less wins than the 2023 one did but still reasonably end up winning more games than the 2024 roster. And most of that is because the 2023 team was like, historically unlucky on offense. You can't look at a team 8th in wOBA but 14th in runs scored and assume they deserved to be 14th in runs scored, that is bonkers. 2022 and 2021 they were top 4 in both categories (wOBA and runs). The comparison to the 2023 roster should use preseason projected wins, tbh. If they projected for 95 wins and you think they are 3 wins worse, then you would expect this team to win 92.
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