Laika

I have a direct line to Ross We shop at the same lube store

But that's just so.... f***ing.... dumb I understand that it's human nature to just hate losing and the Jays playoff track record makes them seem like losers, over the last few years, but everything that has happened in the playoffs still occurred within a meaningless little sample of zero statistical significance, over which Ross Atkins had basically zero influence. Shapiro would never even factor that into a firing decision. If Atkins gets fired it's pure scapegoat marketing, which I suppose teams do from time to time. Or it's a decision that is something like "being the 8th or 9th best GM in the sport simply is not good enough" which seems like a ridiculously high standard unless this is the 1995 to 2012 Yankees. Fans are funny. Jays from 1994 to 2014 never made the playoffs, never won 90 games, maybe sniffed the postseason once. Since 1994, the Jays have made the playoffs 5 times and won 89+ games 5 times. Three of each of those are under Shapiro and Atkins. Fire 'em though! How does nobody but me and my supporters see the obvious path to improvement from Atkins? Like, the organization's shortcomings over the last few years are not exactly secret. I don't get how Mr. Outside Hire is seen as a better bet to fix the problems than the competent incumbents. They hire good people, consistently make good transactions, consistently have good processes and move in the right directions. Let Ross cook.

There is nothing objective about subjective rankings. What does that even mean? Lol What do you think underrated means dude?

That's stupid though They won't make a decision on that That's like saying "if it's not sunny on September 10th he's fired"

we went there for the tournament saw every Canada game

Honestly might be a decent justification to having Bo behind Vlad and not in front of him

Farm system is underrated, I've been saying it all offseason. It's not amazing or anything but they do have: --> position player depth, of the MLB ready variety --> relievers with some upside, of the MLB ready variety --> improved SP depth through AAA/AA than last year --> some exciting high upside prospects like Nimmala, Bonilla, Tiedemann, and a few others

#9 seems fine for Atkins but this list is absurd otherwise

Yes probably One will be held back to throw 40+ pitches after Gausman The other will be ready to replace Francis or maybe even Kikuchi, if they cannot give the team any innings on their first turn

It almost becomes archeological when you go back to some of these guys. Smaller league, smaller equipment, different styles... how much do you correct a goalie's stats because they played for some dominant dynasty their entire career, like Dryden and Bower... In my head, it basically was not even the same sport until after the league started expanding. So, the Maple Leafs have never won the league. In my head. They won some like, winter field hockey trophies decades ago in the proto-NHL.

The fancy stats probably agree. But, the fancy stats also give Patrick Roy a huge boost. Upon further investigation Hasek and Roy are pretty close. Roy's peak was about as dominant as Hasek's peak, it's just harder to see because league-wide save% rose so much in the late 80s, early 90s. So Roy was dominating on a league-relative basis with a .912 sv%, while Hasek did it with .930s a half decade later. Roy lead the league in save% four times in five years, vs. Hasek's six straight. Kind of cool that Roy more or less passed the torch to Hasek as their peaks almost touch. But Roy also tacked dominant playoff performances on top of that. That matters a lot. I also love Ed Belfour showing up as the league sv% leader in both 91 and 2000. At ages 25 and 34.

Yeah it's a lot like ERA. Easy to adjust for era. Hard to adjust for team quality.

they'll probably use Parsons once then swap him out for a reliever.

Found some cool info when searching for era-adjusted save%. Some dude on hfboards did it for goalies. Here is the top 10, career: Player Min SA Saves Sv% Ken Dryden* 24,105 11,301 10,559 93.4%​ Dominik Hasek* 44,465 22,090 20,434 92.5%​ Tony Esposito* 54,387 27,782 25,613 92.2%​ Patrick Roy* 62,369 30,475 28,036 92.0%​ Bernie Parent* 37,214 18,100 16,650 92.0%​ Johnny Bower* 31,983 16,202 14,885 91.9%​ Billy Smith* 39,460 19,617 17,988 91.7%​ Glenn Resch 33,023 16,442 15,066 91.6%​ Jacques Plante* 51,842 24,846 22,758 91.6%​ Tim Thomas 24,448 13,037 11,932 91.5%​ Martin Brodeur is actually way down the list. At like rank 35, with 91.0%​ adjusted career save%. Patrick Roy jumps up A LOT because the league average sv% in the late 80s was like 88%, and his at the time was about 90% on average. Shows the importance of era-adjusting this stat. Also interesting, the same poster did adjusted sv% for playoff performances. This added some really interesting perspective on Roy: Patrick Roy is tied for the second highest career save percentage out of any goalie who faced at least 1,000 shots (Roy faced more shots than the other top five goalies combined). He's also faced 33% more shots than the next closest goalie (Brodeur). No goalie during the past thirty years has surpassed (or even approached) Roy's combination of an extremely high level of performance, and longevity. ... As I said in the previous post, there is little doubt that Roy is the greatest playoff goalie of the past three decades. He has three of the top seven performances, and five of the top thirty-three. He performed at an exceptionally high level on five different occasions where his team made the Stanley Cup finals, and he was a major reason why they were victorious four times. https://forums.hfboards.com/threads/adjusted-save-percentage-regular-season-1956-2022.2510213/ https://forums.hfboards.com/threads/goalies-adjusted-playoff-save-percentage-1984-2022.1185967/

That's the issue with farm system rankings. Always just a snapshot. Fans tend to overvalue the rankings and lists. The important measurement is just the value being in fact harvested from the system, over time. I think Toronto's farm peaked mid-2021, in the period you were thinking about. 8 top 100 prospects on the BA mid-season list. 14. SS/CF Austin Martin 36. C Gabriel Moreno 37. SP Alek Manoah 38. SP Nate Pearson 52. SP Simeon Woods Richardson 56. SS/3B Jordan Groshans 62. C Alejandro Kirk 82. SS Orelvis Martinez Kirk is still here and is good. Martinez is still here and basically the same thing, just an MLB ready version of a backend top 100 prospect. Manoah gave the org 6 WAR before turning into a pumpkin so as funny as it is to say, he kind of worked out? Moreno was turned into Varsho, so still "here" and a good player. SWR and Martin were successfully peddled off into Jose Berrios, so still here in a sense. Groshans was a complete flop and the trade for RP help didn't yield much, other than the 25 decent Bass innings in 2022 and whatever Pop can provide moving forward. Pearson is a complete flop on the SP side and looking like he will be a complete flop on the RP side too. But still a chance... Honestly it kind of seems like a "par for the course" result from a bag of top 100 prospects.

Yeah it's not close for me, either. But Roy and Brodeur were on better teams so they also have that additional hardware, playoff exposure, and smell of winning. Some people really value that.

It would be foolish to make big changes. Extremely foolish. I guess there is a way to can Atkins without it being a "big change." It depends on how important he is, how much heavy lifting the people under him actually do, etc.

I don't know if the numbers are all on the exact same scale. For instance, the average slider for a reliever might be a 105 while the average sinker might be 100. It is that way with Eno's stuff+. Pop likely has s*** command of the slider though. He barely used the cutter.

I don't think this Domingo German signing is going to work for Pitt.

Career year for Varsho incoming. 5+ WAR, 30/20

tjStuff+ (# thrown) HAGEN DANNER Fastball 95 (40) Slider 107 (50) ZACH POP Sinker 103 (88) Cutter 104 (9) Slider 105 (27) YOSVER ZULUETA Sinker 103 (34) Slider 106 (19) BRENDON LITTLE Fastball 105 (48) Sinker 98 (60) Slider 105 (36) I don't know what the "fastball" is for him. he didn't throw a second fastball in his MLB sample, just the sinker. this spring the FF is 2.5 mph slower than his sinker and it has an inch of glove side run, and 3.5 IVB. It might be a cutter with drop, or a hard as f*** gyro slider thing? just being mislabeled so far I did not expect Danner's fastball to grade at 95, thought it would be a bit better on this. Edit: Ah Little's new pitch is a cutter. Well, it might be good so that makes him a lot more interesting to me. I would absolutely be keeping Little. The spike curve breaking ball appears decent and if he has two effective fastballs, cutter and sinker, he can get anybody out.

You can compare some of them Hasek vs. Roy and Brodeur is pretty easy because they overlap so much. Roy and Brodeur never had a SV% over .930 while Hasek did it five times. Only arguments for Roy/Brodeur are counting stats due to Hasek's late debut.

Yeah Danner would be very surprising. He also had the best spring from a K-BB perspective. Zulu - seems hopeless but the greedy fan in me still wants to think there is upside. Pop - feels like we have seen enough and it's just not there? I dunno. This is his last option year, Zulueta would be optionable in 2025 too. Little - lefty with three option years left. Probably safe for now.

he is from Pardubice, I was there in 2008 for the WJ

I love how the defining characteristic of Hasek is just that he tried harder than any other goalie, ever. Like, he just flopped around on the goal line to an extent that skaters did not expect. Or would rush at them on breakaways and take out their legs lmao. Did he do anything from a technical perspective that other goalies weren't doing yet? I don't really think so. He was just good and then also tried extremely hard. I guess he had the flexibility and reaction time to do it. Probably had some form of athleticism that other goalies have never had. Tim Thomas was a lot like him in this respect. Thomas' peak was just so tiny because he debuted at like 33 haha.