He's not wrong, he's PEDANTIC and actually thinking in the RIGHT WAY
Probabilistic thinking is what you need to do, and Olerud is great at it
The problem is that there are things about Arjun Nimmala, physically and contextually which reasonably separate him from 99% of the players who hit .230 in two straight low minors seasons
Anecdotes of players hitting .230 in A and then turning into good MLB players are not that helpful because the opposite anecdote is way easier to find. Olerud is simply correct that players who have some pedigree and then fail to hit in the low minors for a year or two almost all fail.
But you don't need to go far to find out why Nimmala hitting .232 in 2024 is not a huge issue BECAUSE HE HAD A .250 ISO THAT YEAR AND A 125 wRC+ C'MON MAN!!!!!!!!!
Most of these .230 hitting A ball first round busts in history were also slugging .300 and bouncing every throw to first base. Teenage Nimmala was out there like a gazelle on defense, taking his walks and hitting bombs, he just had a s***** batted ball profile. There is some signal in that but it's not worth being alarmist over. It does make you think he's probably not going to be a .260 MLB hitter. Probably more of a low AVG homers and walks guy, if he makes it.