Jeff Hoffman first 4 appearances in 2026:
116 Stuff+
Jeff Hoffman since then:
95 Stuff+
It may have been somewhat obvious if you were watching his velocity and other stuff characteristics, but something is going on with him physically. We was sitting 97.7 and now he is down to 96.2. His slider is down 2 mph in a month. His splitter is actually up a bit, changing his FA-Split separation from 8 mph to 6 mph.
This is the same trend we saw all through 2025.
I think he's broken. The O's physical was right.
He seems like a Jekyll and Hyde pitcher because he probably is one, depending on how much he hurts on any given day.
His 2025, taken as a whole with no context, looks like a decent RP (3.73 xFIP is rank 68 out of 191 RP with 40+ IP) who got very unlucky on homers (20% HR/FB is extreme). But he is starting off 2026 with the same stuff going on; I mean he has a 1.65 xFIP right now in 2026 thanks to all the early season strikeouts.
It's all still small sample size stuff we would presume to be bad luck, most of the time. 77.1 innings as a Toronto Blue Jay. The folly of a relief pitcher. Pitcher HR/FB rates don't stabilize in that period of time.
You can throw out so many of the numbers people look at. I don't care about the ERA, or the blown saves. The BABIP is ridiculous. The LOB% last year was lucky. The HR/FB for his last 77 innings is not his true talent. None of this matters. So much of it is noise.
BUT you can't ignore the velo trend and the declining Stuff+. His Stuff is gone from plus with Philadelphia to something that is way closer to average. Nobody should expect anything more than an average relief pitcher, going forward. That means middle relief...
PitchingBot has his stuff as 193rd out of 250 so far
Stuff+ says 120th out of 250 in 2026
There is a decent chance he is worse than Tommy Nance. He might not be a top 5 RP in the Jays current bullpen.