Laika

Yes it does a bit. I thought the Jays would be a bit higher. But, as an Ernie Clement superfan, this makes sense to me. The Jays do not have a black hole at 3B.

Very harsh. Bassit is a solid league average kitchen sink arm. However, I do agree that people tend to overvalue his statements/opinions. Not sure why. The perception that he is smart because he is a crafty pitcher? Is he actually smart? I dunno. Maybe.

Such a weird offseason. The market was so player friendly out of the gate and it absolutely cratered in the new year. Jack Flaherty got a lighter AAV than: Joc Pederson Christian Walker Teoscar Kikuchi Buehler Nick Martinez Manaea Severino Eovaldi Only a few of these make any sense. Michael Conforto got $17M in like, November. What would he have to settle for right now? $8M?

Here is one cool thing B-Ref projections has but I don't think shows up on Fangraphs. Have you ever thought that not all 2 WAR projections are created equal? That an MLB player who has been a 2 WAR player for 3 years in a row is much more likely to be something close to that than a breakout player from the prior year who was replacement level or in the minors before? Well, that's true. On B-Ref you only see one line of projected stats, which I believe are just basic marcel projections, but they do include a "reliability" percentage (the final column). This is how much of the projection is based on the actual player's stats and how much is based on regression to the mean! Bo Year Tm Age PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Rel 2025 Proj. 27 428 399 49 111 22 1 12 51 7 3 25 86 .278 .322 .429 .751 171 11 2 0 2 1 84% Vlad Year Tm Age PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Rel 2025 Proj. 26 617 549 80 160 33 1 26 87 5 2 59 94 .291 .364 .497 .861 273 17 6 0 4 7 87% Bowden Year Tm Age W L W-L% ERA SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W Rel 2025 Proj. 29 6 4 .600 3.42 2 92.0 72 38 35 13 25 0 85 5 1 2 370 1.054 7.0 1.3 2.4 8.3 3.40 56% Horwitz Year Tm Age PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Rel 2025 Proj. 27 395 346 47 89 19 1 12 44 3 1 39 79 .257 .340 .422 .762 146 8 6 0 3 2 63% Gimenez Year Tm Age PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Rel 2025 Proj. 26 578 523 66 138 24 3 13 62 25 4 31 102 .264 .323 .396 .719 207 10 17 3 4 2 86%

Harsh. I love b-ref.

I don't follow basketball but uhhh did Dallas just get hosed like a fantasy noob?

Probably a $100M gap between what Bo would accept and what Toronto would be willing to pay him right now

I am *guessing* that the six years would have heavy deferrals and Bregman would be more likely than not to opt out earlier. But we will seeeeeeee soon My people in Dunedin are texting me some uhhh very spicy things

I'm hearing that Boss Atkins is preparing some HEAVY DEFERRALS this weekend Stay tuned

Sick The team is ready to rip if they get one of these dudes

DFAing Josh Rojas for $4M just to pay Jorge Polanco more money to suck at third is... definitely a thing

Bowden in particular seems underprojected. First half, 11.6% K-BB second half 21.3% K-BB. Really seemed like something clicked with him. Projections are saying 15% K-BB and 4.40 FIP... The 4 old guys, I guess you just take those projections. Basically just repeating their 2024 production (and 2 WAR from Scherzer would be good).

Blue Jays projected WAR by position C - 4.7 (starter Kirk = 3.9) 1B - 4.5 (starter Vlad = 4.0 (he picks up a bit more in projected DH/3B starts)) 2B - 3.8 (Gimenez 3.5) SS - 4.0 (Bo 3.7) 3B - 3.1 (Clement 1.3 in 315 PA... Vlad is 0.7 of this in 70 PA...) LF - 2.6 (Santander 2.3) CF - 2.2 (Varsho 2.0) RF - 2.1 (Springer 1.7) DH - 1.5 (Wagner 0.6 in 210 PA...) SP total is 11.8 Kevin Gausman 196.0 9.0 2.5 1.2 .294 72.8% 3.89 3.79 2.9 José Berríos 194.0 7.8 2.5 1.3 .296 71.5% 4.28 4.29 1.9 Chris Bassitt 179.0 8.3 3.0 1.1 .295 71.8% 4.11 4.16 2.1 Bowden Francis 149.0 8.3 2.5 1.5 .284 72.0% 4.31 4.40 1.5 Max Scherzer 118.0 9.5 2.2 1.4 .284 73.4% 3.88 3.88 2.0 Yariel Rodríguez 58.0 9.7 3.7 1.1 .290 73.5% 3.95 4.01 0.9 Jake Bloss 27.0 7.4 3.3 1.4 .291 70.7% 4.72 4.75 0.2 Alek Manoah 9.0 9.0 3.2 1.2 .291 72.0% 4.09 4.12 0.1 Adam Macko 9.0 8.2 3.5 1.2 .290 73.0% 4.10 4.34 0.1 Total 940.0 8.6 2.7 1.3 .292 72.2% 4.11 4.12 11.8 RP total is 2.8 Jeff Hoffman 68.0 11.0 3.1 1.0 .288 75.7% 3.26 3.28 1.3 Chad Green 66.0 8.8 2.7 1.3 .286 73.3% 4.07 4.14 0.2 Yimi García 62.0 10.1 2.7 1.1 .288 74.5% 3.48 3.52 0.7 Erik Swanson 61.0 8.8 3.1 1.2 .290 73.2% 4.06 4.13 0.1 Nick Sandlin 59.0 9.4 3.9 1.2 .289 73.4% 4.06 4.21 0.1 Brendon Little 58.0 7.8 3.9 0.7 .306 74.0% 3.60 3.89 0.1 Tommy Nance 55.0 8.0 3.2 1.0 .301 72.0% 4.07 4.09 0.0 Ryan Burr 53.0 9.8 3.2 1.1 .294 74.3% 3.66 3.67 0.2 Yariel Rodríguez 48.0 9.7 3.7 1.1 .290 73.5% 3.95 4.01 0.1 Zach Pop 44.0 7.3 3.2 1.0 .304 72.0% 4.09 4.17 0.0 Nick Robertson 42.0 8.5 3.4 1.1 .294 73.1% 3.97 4.09 0.0 Josh Walker 36.0 9.2 3.8 1.1 .291 74.4% 3.84 4.07 0.0 Okay so who upgrades the roster the most... Alonso is probably something like a 1 to 2 WAR upgrade, depending on his performance and how good Wagner and crew actually are. Bregman is probably a 2 win upgrade (the Jays current 3B projection is sort of artificially bouyed by Vlad showing up in that depth chart). In both cases, beyond the projected win upgrade, Alonso and Bregman would raise the floor or certainty at their respective positions. There is no real point in signing any of the remaining FA bats or SP based on their projections, other than Bregman or Alonso. Barring trades... a random trade for a star OF/3B/DH would be nice. There are still a dozen or so relievers that would be minor to moderate bullpen upgrades. If the team fails on Breglonso then it would be cool to see them pivot and sign some relief upgrades. Danny Coulombe jumps off the page to me. He had bone chip surgery in June but did come back and pitch 4 games in September. The O's declined his $4M option so he should be cheap. Jays need a LHRP. How about Kimbrel to be the RP4 and Coulombe to finish off the roster?

American League projected team WAR after the Scherzer signing: Team ---- Bat -- Pit-- Total Yankees 31.0 17.7 48.7 Orioles 32.2 14.0 46.1 Rangers 28.3 17.6 45.9 Twins 25.8 19.4 45.2 Astros 29.3 15.7 45.0 Blue Jays 28.5 14.6 43.1 Mariners 26.5 15.7 42.2 Rays 25.9 15.3 41.3 Red Sox 22.0 19.2 41.2

It does make you wonder if guys like Y Rod, Bowden, or maybe even Berrios can pick up a thing or two from Scherzer. Bowden Francis in particular is just blessed by present company. He can learn everything he wants to know about the splitter from Gausman and then everything he wants to know about... everything else, from Scherzer.

Now that he's a sunk cost, Straw is kind of a nice luxury. MLB quality CF defender who is not on the 40. It's like having a 41 man roster!

DFAing Ryan Brasier is UNHINGED levels of wealth What the f*** I mean they'll find a trade so it doesn't really matter.

They had the worst infield I've ever seen on a wannabe playoff team. And nothing changes with this.

Oops

Boss Atkins 💪

Do you even watch baseball? There is no way that Alejandro Kirk can play shortstop.

Actually now that I think of it an Arraez trade would be weird but that bad at all As long as the Jays give up almost nothing

FG Depth Charts projections. Hilarious. 36 Gabriel Moreno ARI 130 514 11 61 59 6 9.6% 16.3% .139 .323 .283 .356 .422 .341 117 -1.7 8.9 12.8 4.0 37 Alejandro Kirk TOR 110 436 11 49 48 1 9.9% 12.5% .141 .290 .271 .349 .412 .334 120 -3.4 6.6 7.5 4.0

Yes it's possible TBR gets little upside on it. Kim could come back, struggle for a month, then be his normal self for the second half, opting out after proving he is healthy and setting himself up for a better deal.

insane bargain for TBR sigh Jays or Mets will end up paying Alonso twice that AAV for the same WAR