That's very interesting and depressing.
Finally we have the data to more specifically define why the Jays underperform on offense. We can put a finger on the systemic problem - the things that the Blue Jays have been intentionally or incidentally prioritizing that doesn't correlate optimally to runs scored.
I mean we have known this problem for a few years, we just talked about it differently. It was obvious for a while that too many Jays would execute their A swing and have it result in a line drive or lower flyball to the opposite field - that is just not an efficient way to hit and produce given what we know in 2025. But maybe we all got too bogged down in groundball rates.
I was hoping that Popkins would be the impetus for them to get the ball out in front more, but I guess it hasn't had that effect on the players.
When you look at the entirety of Toronto's hard hit balls, a pattern emerges. The Jays rank 29th in average attack angle on hard hit balls, and 29th in avg swing tilt. Meaning, even when they hit the ball hard, Jays are often doing it with flat bat paths, and catching it late.
Points of reference... MLB avg on hard hit balls: 32° tilt, 9° attack Dodgers: 35° tilt, 11° attack Jays: 29° tilt, 7° attack
Intuitively, this all makes sense: If you're gonna hit the ball hard, you want to do it on the upswing a bit. League-wide numbers going back last couple years back this up.... It's far more productive to hit a ball hard with an attack angle >10° compared to <10°
And that table is where you get to the answer to our original question: How can a team that hits the ball hard as often as the Jays score so few runs?
Worth pointing out: While last night's examples are Guerrero & he's prob primary factor, it's not exclusive to him. Santander & Bichette each have 5° avg attack angle on their hard hit balls. Wagner, Roden, Heineman, Straw, Clase, Gimenez, Barger, Kirk all below MLB avg
In fact, the only 2 Jays comfortably above the avg attack angle threshold on hard hit balls are the 2 Jays exceeding expectations offensively the most this year: Varsho & Springer.