On the other hand, Alonso is 24, Alvarez is 22, and Bichette is 21. Tatis is 20, but he's also showing some red flags offensively and is being boosted significantly by a very high BABIP. Being an above-average hitter in MLB at 20 is still extremely rare. It just seems less impressive now because we saw two HoF track players explode onto the scene at 20 last year, and then to a lesser extent Tatis this year. We all expected Vlad to produce like Soto with the bat, but that was probably a case of expectations that were a bit too high. His performance might seem disappointing, but it's actually indicative of a guy who's going to mash at the MLB level.
Where I think he's actually been disappointing is everywhere else. People were wondering out loud if his defense could approach league average and if maybe he was pretty quick given his size. Well, the defense is terrible, and he runs the bases like Wilson Ramos and Jose Abreu. There's no benefit of the doubt now that we've seen 500 PA of Vlad at his current size. He's going to absolutely bleed value on the bases, and at 3B if he stays there. He's too fat, and it hurts his value.
If he doesn't lose weight, the most probable outcome looks a lot like what David Ortiz did most years, or what Nelson Cruz has done recently. Outside chance that the bat gets to Miguel Cabrera levels and he contends for MVPs, but you can't really expect that kind of progression.