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BTS

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Everything posted by BTS

  1. BTS
    I guess we're just in a bit of a weird place right now regarding market value of vets making a bit of money, and I'm still having a hard time making sense of it. In the past, Pillar would have been moved for an actual prospect or two and the whole thing would be less blatantly about not wanting to pay 6M for a couple of wins. Now, a 30-year old 2-win player making 6M doesn't really have any value around the league, and teams are just punting those guys for payroll savings. I wonder if this is the new norm or just a temporary blip. We've seen a bunch of playoff teams get big contributions from FAs that signed for surprisingly cheap in the offseason, and guys who were given away for next to nothing because of their salaries (Pillar, Roark for example) have provided value to the teams that were willing to pay them. Free agency, almost overnight, became an efficient way to buy wins. I'm guessing that's not a permanent change.
  2. BTS
    Pillar would be second on the team in fWAR behind Gurriel, and would be an absolutely perfect 4th OF next season when presumably the team won't want to lose 100 games again. I'm hoping this offseason marks the beginning of a new era in which the team doesn't punt good players for nothing because they're older than 30 and make a few million dollars.
  3. BTS
    Zeuch is basically a non-prospect at this point guys. He's a right-handed Ty Blach.
  4. BTS
    No. The cap/floor system has made the NHL almost unwatchable. Every year there a couple of teams everyone knows will be elite, a couple teams that everyone knows will suck, and like 25 mostly interchangeable teams that finish where they do based on how lucky they got. The media then makes up narratives to explain why a given team was/wasn't successful. The 2019 Cup Champions were literally dead last in the NHL in January. And it's pretty much impossible to avoid the competitive/non-competitive cycle in the NHL now. In baseball it's always possible to be competitive every year if you make good choices and have financial flexibility. In the NHL perpetual success over the long term isn't really feasible.
  5. BTS
    The last few years have been gross. A handful of teams that actually try to make themselves better and pursue free agents, and a bunch of teams completely punting the season. In an environment with two wild cards, almost every team should be taking a crack at 0.500 and hoping things break right and they make the playoffs. There used to be a certain level of shame in fielding an unwatchable 100-loss mess, but that's not really the case anymore. Four teams are projected to lose 100+ games, and two more are projected to lose 95+. There apparently needs to be incentive for teams like Toronto to not view it as a waste to pay decent players in a season where they're probably not going to win.
  6. BTS
    If someone offered me Franco straight up for Bellinger in BORED I’d blacklist them.
  7. BTS
    My offense is 0-21 today.
  8. BTS
    Your team is very good. I think this is pretty much even odds.
  9. BTS
    Let’s dance Jimbo.
  10. BTS
    For the first time since 2013 the True Cardinals are Monte Cristo division champions. Silvergun’s 5-year reign of terror is over.
  11. BTS
    So you're saying he doesn't have Justin Upton upside?
  12. BTS
    You were banned because you said you were shitposting with the goal of being banned. The moderation team has been instructed to oblige self-requested bans.
  13. BTS
    Did I mention that I hate Spencer Turnbull?
  14. BTS
    The thing about Trout in a redraft is that you can write in the 180 wRC+ and forget about it. A couple players will finish ahead of him in a given season, but nobody else is a slam dunk top-5 player year to year. Anyone who tried to get cute and took Harper ahead of Trout in 2016 or Betts this year probably missed the playoffs.
  15. BTS
    I don't even know how you project a superlative talent like Trout over the long term. His hitting peers are guys like Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, Frank Thomas, and Ty Cobb and all of these guys mashed until 40. With Trout entering his age-28 season next year, I think it's more likely that he still has 10+ years of high-end offensive production left than that he starts showing age-related decline with the bat in the near-future. There isn't a single player in baseball I'd take over him.
  16. BTS
    This is why I never post images here that aren't linked from another web page: I'm too hold to know how to do it properly.
  17. BTS
    Bryce Harper's clutch score before this season was negative for his career. It's now slightly positive. We're just seeing good sequencing luck in 2019 - his BABIP with RISP is in 2019 is 0.443 and his BABIP with the bases empty is 0.212. People's tendency to attach importance to these kinds of fluctuations is exactly why WAR is so valuable.
  18. BTS
    I think most people here understand the issues with WAR when it comes to pitchers - it's not terribly useful for relievers because top guys can be used almost exclusively in high leverage situations, increasing their value beyond what a context-neutral stat would estimate. And it's extremely sensitive to good/bad HR/FB luck. I rarely look at WAR for pitchers. For position players, WAR is critically important IMO. Trying to reconcile the relative values of offense, defense, baserunning, and framing for catchers without model similar to WAR is pretty much impossible for an average fan. Most people just end up letting their own biases cloud their opinions, and up missing the mark by miles because they were concerned that WAR would mislead them by a few feet. Remember the non-saber fan opinion of Ryan Goins?
  19. BTS
    I know how you feel. I've had Clevinger miss most of the year, Skaggs literally die, Happ be worse than replacement level, Votto turn into a pumpkin, and Taylor not contribute anything.
  20. BTS
    At least you're making other people happy. I'm really going to enjoy my $50 winnings and picking 8th instead of 18th in every round of the draft, and you caused that happiness. So pat yourself on the back.
  21. BTS
    Has there been a more humiliating DDL season than Boxy's 2019?
  22. BTS
    I'm hoping that's true next year. He's ranked 728th overall in our format this year, and I missed his best month of the season. He's been sub-replacement level since the start of May.
  23. BTS
    He's been maybe the most frustrating player I've owned in fantasy this year. Since I've owned him he's been bad, but not droppable because there's legit upside: 73.2 IP, 1W, 64K, 4.89 ERA, 2.13 K/BB, 0.351 OBPA And now he's up against his IP limits and will take up a roster spot getting sparse innings during my playoff run. I have NOT enjoyed owning him.
  24. BTS
    I don’t want to hear it. I’m still mad at you for selling me on Spencer Turnbull.
  25. BTS
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