Playoff Tracker 202?

[Olerud363.354]

Playoff Tracker thread for unknown month and year when baseball starts again...

Hard to calculate the play off odds when we don't know who the players will be, when the games will start, and how many games.   My guess is it starts June 2028.  I don't know that. 

Assuming they don't change the playoff system there are 15 teams, 6 spots.  Best I can do is 6/15=40%

So.  Not a bad way to look at it.  Playoff odds have gone from 4% to 40% just by switching to a new (unknown at this point) year. 

What can Jays do to increase the odds above 40% in the year 202x  ?   

[SpencerBateman]

Tracking white Sox in the Al.  If they don’t win, then Tampa bay or Red Sox I guess.  I can’t cheer for Indians after they f***ed us and I just don’t like Houston.

in NL, I pick whoever plays dodgers.  In the other series, pick under dog every time.  That is how you track the playoffs when you aren’t in it.

we could still win 5 in a row and Indians and Texas lose all of their games 

[Olerud363.354]

I'm moving playoff odds down to 39.5%

Start 6 teams make it 6/15=40%

Batemen injury timeline to return uncertain -- likely be back within 6-18 months it will take for baseball to be back. 

Cease injury minor, but some posters say 'tear too small to see now, it will grow big by 10 starts next year'

Not being a negative nancy here.  I moved the playoff odds down very very fractionally.  They are still 39.5%.  Could move up if anything good ever happened

[Olerud363.354]

If Jays hadn't signed Vlad to 14 years 500, lost him in free agency, and signed Pete Alonso as the token replacement (like Raul Mondesi was to Shawn Green)

Blue Jays make playoffs in 2026. 

[Olerud363.354]

Just noticed Dancingmachine pointed out the Vlad/Alonso thing on the game thread.

I hadn't seen his thought, when I posted mine, just an obvious thought.  Nevertheless he clearly said it first, so any profit I make off that above comment should be use.  

[Olerud363.354]

How many years or decades will Jays have to wait for next division title?  

1985 - 4 year wait until 1989

1989 - 2 year wait until 1991

1991 - 1 year wait until 1992

1992 - 1 year wait until 1993

1993 - 22 year wait until 2015

2015 - 10 year wait until 2026.

The franchise can't measure wait until next division title in decades?  Can it?  Will it be 1, 2 or 3 decades until the next?  Will they win another division title in the Vladdy contract years (to 2039) ??

Atlanta Braves have won 7/9 division titles.  Dodgers 13/14 with the 106 wins the one season they didn't.

Maybe the strike will be decades.  So we will go decades before next division title, but not like years of baseball.  In 2038 when baseball comes back it will probably pretty different and maybe Blue Jays will still exist, and maybe win division title because everyone basically on even ground starting over. 

[Olerud363.354]

Positive Pete's vs Negative Nancies

Positive Pete: Bieber has taken the option.  Great price for elite starter.  The power of friendship!

Negative Nancies:  Bieber is injured. 

Verdict: Negative Nancies indeed right.  Especially considering Bieber's half functional arm went fully un-functional in August when we needed him bad. 

Positive Pete's: Cease's MRI is just inflamation.  All systems go for 2027!

Negative Nancies: The tear is too small to see on the MRI, but only grows from here.  He likely doesn't make it through spring training 2027, but good news is there won't be a 2027 anyway, bad news is the tear won't grow until baseball restarts in June 2028, so it will get big enough to see in July 2028, and Surgery in August 2028 so misses 2029 too. 

Are you a Positive Pete?  Or a negative Nancy?

[Olerud363.354]

Positive Pete outlook

1.  Dodgers win World Series again

2. Strike become hyper-focused on stopping Dodgers

3. The other high revenue teams, NY teams, Toronto, Boston, Cubs and a couple of others take control of negotiations with one purpose, constrain Dodgers but keep their own power.

4. Strike ends May 1st 2027 - Season to start June 1st.

5.  Environment is similar to post 1994 strike in April 1995.  Small market teams demoralized, worried, and trade stars, Dodgers constrained, teams 2-9 including Jays are able to operate quick and smart. 

6.  Vlad and Cease return functional

7.   Jays go 62-48 and win a wild card. 

[Olerud363.354]

For the Jays to have a future, the Dodgers have to win the World Series.  The strike can't be about constraining spender 2-9.  It has to be about and only about stopping Dodgers.

Red Sox win World Series over Phillies - strike becomes about stopping Red Sox, Phillies which bad for Jays

Dodgers beat Cleveland 4-1 - Best possible outcome.  Dodgers host trophy in visitors stadium 3rd year in a row and start 'drive for five' talk.  Then strike is about stopping Dodgers.  

[John_Havok]

Mods?

[Olerud363.354]

41 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Mods?

What should we replace this thread with?  The off-season thread?  I already had one of my threads closed (the tank thread for 18th pick), and did that make anyone's life better?  Was the board a happier place?  I actually agreed though that thread could be closed because the Blue Jays had a brief 'fools gold' good 4 days.  I was wrong.  The tank thread should have stayed opened, as should this one. 

This is the playoff thread.  Why should it be closed?  Just because one year's playoff drive ended ?  There will be another playoff drive, someday, first baseball has to be restarted first, and we don't know when that is, so the two issue's are related and can be discussed hand in hand,. 

And Jays potentially could be really screwed because of the new CBA.  They have lots of money owed to Vladimir '9 homeruns' Guerrero and Dylan 'the tear is too small to see' Cease.. but lots of money in hand to potentially spend money to solve the problem of spending too much money. 

IF the greedy small market teams limit us somehow we'll never be able to spend our way out of this situation and be forced to watch Tampa Bay finish 35 games ahead of us a year forever. 

 

[Olerud363.354]

When will we win our next division tile?  When will we make the playoffs again?

In the next 33 years will we win more division title than the previous 33 years (2) ?

[Omar]

Winning a World Series = 5 years of a free pass; no questions asked of management. Flags fly forever!

Winning a League Championship = 2 years of a free pass; Jays have until 2028 to get back on track.

Getting to the playoffs and winning a series = Generally a successful season but not great.  Get er done next season. No free pass unless you are a small market team.  In a small market you can have your own parade if you so choose. Nobody cares about you anyway.

Not making the playoffs in a large market with considerable payroll = Heads have to roll; have to make changes to all or parts of front office, coaching staff and roster.

Not making the playoffs with a small market team = That’s life.  Suck it up and hope for better fortune next year. Expect the worst so you wont be disappointed. 

Finishing last in your Division =  All bets are off.  You forfeit any grace period earned by previous successful seasons.  The doom and gloom crowd on Jays Centre have shite eating grins on their faces until things turn around.  The price we pay. Could be the Jays this season.

[Olerud363.354]

3 hours ago, Omar said:

Winning a World Series = 5 years of a free pass; no questions asked of management. Flags fly forever!

Winning a League Championship = 2 years of a free pass; Jays have until 2028 to get back on track.

This is probably accurate.  

Cito got 4 years of basically this before getting fired.   Schneider will only get 2 on account of Varsho not hitting a flyball. 

Fire John Schneider Sept 28th 2027 if this happens again.  I mean it could be 2028 with the strike. 

Not unreasonable. 

[Olerud363.354]

Does anyone else think Sean Keys can contribute to a playoff run?

I think so but he might just be converted to a similar but older player who can play the outfield in a pinch.  Kyle Stowers seems like a good fit. 

Or do you think Keys needs to be DH in 2027.  I would be happy with that, but for some reason get the feeling Jays 'win now' will just want a 28 year old version with some more outfield experience. 

[Olerud363.354]

I'll be an optimist.  June 2nd 2027 a bright sunny day

cf batemen

2b lowe

1b Guerrero

lf Suzuki

dh Stowers

3b Okamota

c Kirk

rf Barger

ss Giminez

 

 

 

[Olerud363.354]

I'll move the playoff odds up 5% for each of Lowe, Suzuki, Stowers that are acquired.  So if all 3 moves it from 40 to 55. 

[Forever92]

This season almost identical to 1998. Big expectations coming out of spring training. By trade deadline 10 games under .500. Sold at deadline, then went to a crazy hot streak. By second week-September in the pennant race. Then last 3 weeks of season wheels fell off. 

[Olerud363.354]

1 hour ago, Forever92 said:

This season almost identical to 1998. Big expectations coming out of spring training. By trade deadline 10 games under .500. Sold at deadline, then went to a crazy hot streak. By second week-September in the pennant race. Then last 3 weeks of season wheels fell off. 

1998 was so much more positive.   88 wins, and they didn't really every tie Boston for the Wild Card or anything.  Just sort of hovered 4 games back in September and didn't make any progress after that. 

Delgado and Green learned steroids from Jose Canseco and took it to the next level.

Shannon Stewart became a great lead off man.

Roger Clemens was healthy all year and won a second consecutive Cy Young. 

There were lots of fun 10-8 losses when Clemens wasn't pitching.

Dave Stieb revlieved Halladays first start, and caught the Bobby Higgenson hr to break up the no hitter in the Halladays second start.

Tim Johnson told some great War stories.  

FYI despite the fact Clemens was a great trade chip, they did not make a great trade. 

Phrases to describe 98 - fun, homers, steroids, hit ball hard, 10-8, so close, see you next year, hopeful

Phrases to describe 2026 - 640 runs, why can't they hit, this is Vlad at 27?, does Cease's shoulder even work anymore? 

 

[Olerud363.354]

This is a great thread, combines two very important concepts

The clever wording 202?  - yeah when exactly will baseball return?  

Playoff Tracker - when it returns will Jays be in any position to make the playoffs?  Simple 6/15=0.4 tells us there chances are 40% when our knowledge is vague.  But when you consider the players that will show up in ____ of 202? and how functional they are, will those odds decrease or increase? 

[Olerud363.354]

He doesn't feel any f***ing sense of shame watching Alonso.  

Watching a fully functional major league 1st basemen, working hard at his craft and launching them high in the sky, giving the fans (what fans there are) thrills?

And don't f***ing laugh at the Orioles crowds.  That is us us as soon as next year.  You f***ing chuds have zero concept of how much damage this season did.  You have NO f***ING idea how fast attendance will drop, how bad this could get. 

From 2017 to 2019 3.2 million to 1.7.    Attendance will be under 2 million next time they play.  They will sell every player except Vlad, and THERE NEVER BE ANY JOY AGAIN.  

Attendance will be 700k after 4 years of this.  At least Vlad got paid for what he did!

[Brownie19]

I worry we need to change the title of this thread to 20??

[Forever92]

16 hours ago, Olerud363.354 said:

1998 was so much more positive.   88 wins, and they didn't really every tie Boston for the Wild Card or anything.  Just sort of hovered 4 games back in September and didn't make any progress after that. 

Delgado and Green learned steroids from Jose Canseco and took it to the next level.

Shannon Stewart became a great lead off man.

Roger Clemens was healthy all year and won a second consecutive Cy Young. 

There were lots of fun 10-8 losses when Clemens wasn't pitching.

Dave Stieb revlieved Halladays first start, and caught the Bobby Higgenson hr to break up the no hitter in the Halladays second start.

Tim Johnson told some great War stories.  

FYI despite the fact Clemens was a great trade chip, they did not make a great trade. 

Phrases to describe 98 - fun, homers, steroids, hit ball hard, 10-8, so close, see you next year, hopeful

Phrases to describe 2026 - 640 runs, why can't they hit, this is Vlad at 27?, does Cease's shoulder even work anymore? 

 

Yup, similar seasons