Blue Jays (Scherzer) vs Nationals (Yean): 7/27/26, 6:45pm

[bronson44]

3 minutes ago, Omar said:

Cue the return of Spanky!

Spanky is very happy in his new home. Plenty of open space to run around.

[Terminator]

4 minutes ago, Omar said:

Cue the return of Spanky!

[Jays24]

I think we're about to get Marte at the deadline and go on another magical run folks!! 

[Jays24]

4 minutes ago, Terminator said:

You called and he shall arrive lol

[G-Snarls]

Nice win Bros 

[jaysblue]

2 hours ago, Jays24 said:

Attaboy Hoffman! What could have been if this front office realized Hoffman wasnt a closer a year ago like most already knew lol.

[jaysblue]

2 hours ago, Terminator said:

I’m going to get absolutely tarred and feathered for this…BUT…we are only 5 games back from the playoffs you guys…just saying

 

I still believe! 

[jaysblue]

Jays bullpen at the end of games with Hoffman/Rogers/Varland like damn! 

We just need some of our starters to go a bit deeper and pick up the slack like Bieber & Yesavage and maybe if we could score around 5 or so runs a majority of the time, things wouldn't be that bad geez! 

[Brownie19]

12 hours ago, Ryu In My House said:

Just tuned in, did Max get hurt?

No - but he's on a pitch count as he's returning from injury.  He threw 50 pitches in the first 2 innings and thus didn't have enough bullets to go deeper.  

[max silver]

12 hours ago, Jays24 said:

Attaboy Hoffman! What could have been if this front office realized Hoffman wasnt a closer a year ago like most already knew lol.

That version of Hoffman would have success in any inning of the game. Don't give me this nonsense about him pitching well because of the inning as he's coming off of a stretch of several shaky outings in recent games despite not throwing a single pitch in the 9th.

[jaysblue]

29 minutes ago, max silver said:

That version of Hoffman would have success in any inning of the game. Don't give me this nonsense about him pitching well because of the inning as he's coming off of a stretch of several shaky outings in recent games despite not throwing a single pitch in the 9th.

Pretending the mental side of the game doesn’t exist is incredibly simplistic.

[max silver]

3 minutes ago, jaysblue said:

Pretending the mental side of the game doesn’t exist is incredibly simplistic.

Pretending that Hoffman throwing his best pitch like 80% of the time and shelving his worst pitch is a non factor is incredibly simplistic. It's low hanging fruit to point at the inning and ignore the drastic change in pitch usage. I just pointed out that Hoffman had a recent stretch of poor outings where he had poor stuff and command despite not pitching in the 9th inning. The inning he's pitching in hasn't been the issue behind his struggles and that's not something I'm going to budge on as it's nothing more than a narrative.

[Terminator]

1 hour ago, max silver said:

That version of Hoffman would have success in any inning of the game. Don't give me this nonsense about him pitching well because of the inning as he's coming off of a stretch of several shaky outings in recent games despite not throwing a single pitch in the 9th.

I did a deep dive into the stats, and I've reached an undeniable conclusion. Jeff Hoffman is the Goldilocks of relievers.

Hoff is at his best in the 8th inning. The numbers back it up.

The 7th inning is his worst. Apparently there's just not enough pressure (aka the porridge is too cold). Avoid using him in the 7th at all costs.

The 9th inning is much better than the 7th and statistically it is almost indistinguishable from the 8th for him. But that doesn't fit my scientific theory that the 9th inning contains extra pressure (aka the porridge is too hot) that prevents him from reaching his true potential.

The 8th inning, though, is the porridge you want Jeff to be eating. It's juuuuust right. It has the perfect amount of pressure for Hoff to be at his absolute best.

[Laika]

Jeff Hoffman is an X-Man and his superpower is that the flyballs he gives up in save situations all travel ten percent further 

[jaysblue]

27 minutes ago, max silver said:

Pretending that Hoffman throwing his best pitch like 80% of the time and shelving his worst pitch is a non factor is incredibly simplistic. It's low hanging fruit to point at the inning and ignore the drastic change in pitch usage. I just pointed out that Hoffman had a recent stretch of poor outings where he had poor stuff and command despite not pitching in the 9th inning. The inning he's pitching in hasn't been the issue behind his struggles and that's not something I'm going to budge on as it's nothing more than a narrative.

I never said pitch usage was irrelevant. The point is that you’re treating it as the entire explanation while dismissing the psychological side as a “narrative.” Poor outings outside the ninth only prove the inning isn’t the sole issue - not that closing pressure plays no role. You can’t throw just any reliever into a save situation and pretend there’s no mental difference between protecting a lead in the ninth and pitching in an earlier inning. Some pitchers handle that pressure without issue; others clearly don’t.

At the end of the day, I think we can both agree that Hoffman has pitched much better since moving out of the closer’s role, while Varland has continued to do an excellent job taking over the ninth inning. Whatever the reason, the Blue Jays’ bullpen is in a much better place now than it was in April and early May, which we can both applaud. 

[Omar]

14 hours ago, Omar said:

Hoffman turning elite. 

 

 

[Jays24]

3 hours ago, jaysblue said:

Pretending the mental side of the game doesn’t exist is incredibly simplistic.

Some people are such computer people who have never played sports of any kind at any level.  Its absurd to think that the mental side doesnt exist lol. 

[Terminator]

23 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

Some people are such computer people who have never played sports of any kind at any level.  Its absurd to think that the mental side doesnt exist lol. 

Yeah I could always tell that you were an elite athlete who really understood the mental side of what it takes to compete at the highest levels and definitely not one of those "computer people".

[max silver]

29 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

Some people are such computer people who have never played sports of any kind at any level.  Its absurd to think that the mental side doesnt exist lol. 

Some people are so incapable of looking beneath the surface that they cling to simplified narratives instead of digging deeper.

[Brownie19]

4 hours ago, jaysblue said:

Pretending the mental side of the game doesn’t exist is incredibly simplistic.

I think most understand there's a mental side to the game - I most certainly do.  I think the question is how much of a factor it really is and/or how you factor that into your decision making.

How much different is it pitching in the 8th instead of the 9th?  Over his career, Hoffman has pitched better in high leverage than he has in medium or low leverage and as Term pointed out, he's pitched best in the 8th, worst in the 7th, with the 9th somewhere in between.  How do those results suit your narrative that he lacks mental fortitude?  Why would he be worse in the 7th than the 9th if he struggles with the mental pressure of closing?

The reality is the mental side of things will be different for every player in baseball - and it is something that is constantly changing.  Players may learn to handle the pressure more as they age and mature, some people go into slumps and lose their confidence altogether.

I think it's also incredibly simplistic to just label someone as being unable handle a certain role.  We see players who've failed as a closer for a couple of years suddenly figure it out and dominate for several years.  We see players who have dominated as a closer for several years, who suddenly struggle with it.  We see closers who are dominate one year, then suck the next, then dominate again.  The only consistent thing about relivers is their inconsistency.

The reality is there's really not black or white answer.  It's similar to the discussion on lineup protection and whether it exists or not - and if so, to what extent does it matter.  Anyone claiming their right and the answer is clear is ignorant.

 

[Jays24]

2 hours ago, Terminator said:

Yeah I could always tell that you were an elite athlete who really understood the mental side of what it takes to compete at the highest levels and definitely not one of those "computer people".

You dont even have to be an elite athlete... just any type of athlete would recognize the mental aspect exists.  To say it doesnt just shows how out of touch you are with sports in general.  Its why some people belong closer to the field and some people belong in the very back of an office hidden lol.  

[Jays24]

2 hours ago, max silver said:

Some people are so incapable of looking beneath the surface that they cling to simplified narratives instead of digging deeper.

Its ok if you are on the numbers side that cant comprehend anything beyond that.  The truth lies in the middle of both extremes.  

[max silver]

25 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

Its ok if you are on the numbers side that cant comprehend anything beyond that.  The truth lies in the middle of both extremes.  

Why don't you go ahead and explain why Hoffman largely struggled in his recent outings? He had a 4 game stretch from July 12-24 where he pitched to a 4.91 ERA/8.74 xERA. You can't blame the 9th inning as he hasn't pitched there for an extended period of time. You constantly harp on about how Hoffman primarily enjoys success because he's not pitching in the closer position so I'm dying to hear your explanation towards why he would struggle in non closing situations. 

Here' a bit of a hint: he struggled for exactly the same reasons why he struggled at times in the closer position.

[Jays24]

54 minutes ago, max silver said:

Why don't you go ahead and explain why Hoffman largely struggled in his recent outings? He had a 4 game stretch from July 12-24 where he pitched to a 4.91 ERA/8.74 xERA. You can't blame the 9th inning as he hasn't pitched there for an extended period of time. You constantly harp on about how Hoffman primarily enjoys success because he's not pitching in the closer position so I'm dying to hear your explanation towards why he would struggle in non closing situations. 

Here' a bit of a hint: he struggled for exactly the same reasons why he struggled at times in the closer position.

How can you not realize the biggest difference between being a 7th/8th inning guy vs 9th inning guy.  

When youre a 7th/8th inning guy, you usually have a better reliever behind you who can clean your mess.  As a 9th inning guy, you are left out there to decide the game because there typically isnt anyone available to come in. 

We've seen with Hoffman, its very easy to see the type of outing he's going to have.  The variance between his good/bad outings were obvious to the point even someone like me called it out before the worst happened.  

Then you factor that Schneider tried to give Rogers/Varland the hardest opponents so Hoffman's job became easier too.  

[Spanky__99]

20 hours ago, Jays24 said:

You called and he shall arrive lol

[Terminator]

19 minutes ago, Jays24 said:

How can you not realize the biggest difference between being a 7th/8th inning guy vs 9th inning guy.  

When youre a 7th/8th inning guy, you usually have a better reliever behind you who can clean your mess.  As a 9th inning guy, you are left out there to decide the game because there typically isnt anyone available to come in. 

We've seen with Hoffman, its very easy to see the type of outing he's going to have.  The variance between his good/bad outings were obvious to the point even someone like me called it out before the worst happened.  

Then you factor that Schneider tried to give Rogers/Varland the hardest opponents so Hoffman's job became easier too.  

Statistically speaking, his worst inning by far is the 7th though. But he also stinks in the 9th inning because he gave up a home run in the playoffs.

See my previous post, but I think you have to use him in the 8th inning. The 9th inning is too much pressure for him and the 7th inning isn't enough pressure.

The 8th inning is the sweet spot where you unlock the best version of the Hoff. 

[Spanky__99]

20 hours ago, Terminator said:

[Spanky__99]

21 hours ago, Omar said:

Cue the return of Spanky!

[max silver]

1 hour ago, Jays24 said:

How can you not realize the biggest difference between being a 7th/8th inning guy vs 9th inning guy.  

When youre a 7th/8th inning guy, you usually have a better reliever behind you who can clean your mess.  As a 9th inning guy, you are left out there to decide the game because there typically isnt anyone available to come in. 

We've seen with Hoffman, its very easy to see the type of outing he's going to have.  The variance between his good/bad outings were obvious to the point even someone like me called it out before the worst happened.  

Then you factor that Schneider tried to give Rogers/Varland the hardest opponents so Hoffman's job became easier too.  

I'll take your lack of answer to the very basic question I asked as you simply being unable to answer. I'll help you out, Hoffman struggles on days when he isn't commanding his pitches and he doesn't always bring his best stuff into games as well. It's really that easy. The inning he's pitching is is almost completely immaterial compared to whether he's effectively placing his pitches where he needs to with sufficient stuff to miss barrels and bats. When you point at the inning nearly in entirety as the reason to why Hoffman is failing or succeeding you are displaying a lack of basic understanding of why he actually tends to struggle at times. 

The reason for the recent struggles are easily verified with the Stuff+ location metric. In the 4 outings prior to last night's dominant performance Hoffman produced an average location + of only 81 to go along with an overall stuff rating of only 100. These outings saw him not bringing his best stuff into the game and compounding things further was the inability to command the subpar stuff on top of that. These outings all came before the 9th inning, and the inning he was pitching in had literally nothing to do with his struggles, much as the inning he's pitching in has nothing to do with his success. When Hoffman brings his good stuff and command into games he's fully capable of dominating in any inning of the game, and when you use this reductive declaration of him being dominant because he's not closing it's missing the forest for the trees. 

On top of that your reading comprehension could use some work. My original statement that triggered this conversation was that last night's version of Hoffman would be dominant in any inning of the game. He brought an absolutely filthy slider into the game and dominated the middle of the order of MLB's best offense. I'm not saying Hoffman should be closing in place of Varland as it's impossible to argue against the perfect results Varland has produced in the spot, but I'm simply pushing back against this overly simplified narrative of Hoffman's dominance being due to him pitching in a non closer's role while largely ignoring the drastic change of his pitch usage. 

 

[Stangstag]

2 hours ago, Jays24 said:

Its ok if you are on the numbers side that cant comprehend anything beyond that.  The truth lies in the middle of both extremes.  

Are you under the impression you’re a centrist when it comes to baseball analysis? Most here would probably put you in the “crazy emotional uncle” section of baseball intelligence