Question of the week: are you optimistic?

[Brock Beauchamp]

How you feelin' about this team right now?

[John_Havok]

Can't really be helped where they are in the standings given their injuries. There's only so much depth you can have before bending turns into breaking. So far, they've bent, but not broke which is encouraging. 

A decent 4 or 5 game winning streak or a winning 6-of-7 would help put the casuals at ease for sure. 

Are they below expectations? Sure. But the reality is, every team in the league has a 20 game stretch where they go 8-12 or 7-13 regardless of how great, good or bad they are. When it happens at the start of the season after coming as close as possible to a WS win, any faltering is going to be dissected to death like it means something that it probably doesn't

Really need some BP consistency though. SP has been excellent. Offense is riding the BABIP/RISP train since the power hasn't really shown up yet. Defense has been uncharacteristically below expectations but not really concerned with that over the course of the long season. 

[Olerud363.354]

On 4/21/2026 at 11:49 AM, John_Havok said:

Are they below expectations? Sure. But the reality is, every team in the league has a 20 game stretch where they go 8-12 or 7-13

The logic is wrong though because just because an 8-12 already happened doesn't decrease the chance of another one happening.   And an 8-12 while the division leader goes 13-7 puts you 5 games back and very difficult to overcome when at best team was projected to be about even with the other teams. 

And yes, Jays came back from a big hole last year, but that's just happens to be the 1 of 10 which it happens. Jays had a good team on paper but slow starts in 86, 88, 89, 95, 97, 98, 2003, 2008, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2024, 2025.   I count 14 years this has happened, and came back all the way to win a division 3 times.   Which might even be more than you'd expect.   Fangraphs has it as 1/20 to win the division. 

Playoffs chances with the extra wild card are higher..  25 to 30 percent I guess.   Jays playoff, division and world series chances last in AL East now.  Fangraphs likes even the Red Sox better. 

Actually seems historically Jays have done this more than you'd expect.  Good on team on paper, excited for the season,  playoff odds destroyed 4 weeks in. 

[mphenhef]

41 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

 

Actually seems historically Jays have done this more than you'd expect.  Good on team on paper, excited for the season,  playoff odds destroyed 4 weeks in. 

So many times.  I'm still optimistic as injuries are a big part of the problem and they do have slow starters, but there is definitely some concern given the issues scoring runs so far.

[Joltin Joe]

On 4/21/2026 at 9:41 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

How you feelin' about this team right now?

I haven't been watching this season. But if Jays do have to sell this deadline have many desirable. players 

[RA Whiffleball]

This club tends to underachieve when expectations are high going into the season (2013, 2014, 2016, 2021, 2022, 2023) and tends to overachieve when little is expected (2015, 2020, 2025).

In all his years as a president slash GM, 2025 was the first time a Shapiro team got to a WS and the first time any of his teams won a best of seven series. It was only the second time any of his teams had won a division title. 

So I don't know what to think - is this a repeat of 2024 or a repeat of our slow start of last year?

Yes, we've had injuries, but that's no excuse for going 2-8 against the Rockies, White Sox, and Twins,

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[max silver]

11 hours ago, RA Whiffleball said:

This club tends to underachieve when expectations are high going into the season (2013, 2014, 2016, 2021, 2022, 2023) and tends to overachieve when little is expected (2015, 2020, 2025).

In all his years as a president slash GM, 2025 was the first time a Shapiro team got to a WS and the first time any of his teams won a best of seven series. It was only the second time any of his teams had won a division title. 

So I don't know what to think - is this a repeat of 2024 or a repeat of our slow start of last year?

Yes, we've had injuries, but that's no excuse for going 2-8 against the Rockies, White Sox, and Twins,

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You are stuck in this black and white/binary thinking pattern again. This team could end up being more of a mid-high 80's win wildcard team ala 2023 as the team looks to have a solid run prevention unit but trouble scoring runs, maybe they go on another crazy run like last season as suggested and challenge for the division, or injuries continue to hammer the team and they disappoint in more of a .500 season or worse etc. 

Injuries are absolutely an excuse for losing games when you are playing at something closer to a 60% strength roster. If the team was largely healthy then it would be perfectly fair to view the poor record against weaker opposition as being completely unacceptable, but this team has been cursed with as many early season injuries as I can remember in the last few decades. It seems you think that a team should have enough depth to cover for missing 4/5 of an MLB rotation (Ponce/Berrios/Cease/Yesavage)to the point where it's necessary to use the 7th/8th/9th rotation options with regularity and 3 of your best hitters. The remaining players need to pick up the slack but the team has largely weathered the storm and some of the injured players are starting to work their way back. 

[RA Whiffleball]

9 minutes ago, max silver said:

You are stuck in this black and white/binary thinking pattern again. This team could end up being more of a mid-high 80's win wildcard team ala 2023 as the team looks to have a solid run prevention unit but trouble scoring runs, maybe they go on another crazy run like last season as suggested and challenge for the division, or injuries continue to hammer the team and they disappoint in more of a .500 season or worse etc. 

Injuries are absolutely an excuse for losing games when you are playing at something closer to a 60% strength roster. If the team was largely healthy then it would be perfectly fair to view the poor record against weaker opposition as being completely unacceptable, but this team has been cursed with as many early season injuries as I can remember in the last few decades. It seems you think that a team should have enough depth to cover for missing 4/5 of an MLB rotation (Ponce/Berrios/Cease/Yesavage)to the point where it's necessary to use the 7th/8th/9th rotation options with regularity and 3 of your best hitters. The remaining players need to pick up the slack but the team has largely weathered the storm and some of the injured players are starting to work their way back. 

Not binary thinking. You don't even know what binary thinking means. These are facts. You just don't like it because you can't accept any criticism of the club. 

[John_Havok]

27 minutes ago, RA Whiffleball said:

Not binary thinking. You don't even know what binary thinking means. These are facts. You just don't like it because you can't accept any criticism of the club. 

Dunning... meet Kruger. 

[RA Whiffleball]

3 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Dunning... meet Kruger. 

Can either of them play third?

[max silver]

I have no issue with reasonable criticism of the current version of the Blue Jays as there are plenty of issues that are worthy of criticism. I do however expect this to come with even a modicum of thought processes behind it and even a minimal attempt to look beneath the surface. I see little evidence of you doing either and your criticisms tend to be vapid in nature. As a newcomer with a noted lack of history of intelligent discussion you have zero credibility here, and constantly attempting to portray your dimwitted opinions as facts isn't the zippy comeback you think it is.

[mphenhef]

13 minutes ago, max silver said:

I have no issue with reasonable criticism of the current version of the Blue Jays as there are plenty of issues that are worthy of criticism. I do however expect this to come with even a modicum of thought processes behind it and even a minimal attempt to look beneath the surface. I see little evidence of you doing either and your criticisms tend to be vapid in nature. As a newcomer with a noted lack of history of intelligent discussion you have zero credibility here, and constantly attempting to portray your dimwitted opinions as facts isn't the zippy comeback you think it is.

Given the recent posts, I think they are nothing more than a troll tbh.

[Jonn]

I still think they need a legit bat before they can really get back to where they need to be. And obviously health has been a major factor so far in a variety of areas. But even fully healthy I think adding someone with some legit pop is going to be needed. Looking around the league a team like the Nationals have 2 hitters with 9 Homeruns. Are leader has 5 and his OPS is under .700. It’s only May but it’s fairly concerning.

[max silver]

8 minutes ago, Jonn said:

I still think they need a legit bat before they can really get back to where they need to be. And obviously health has been a major factor so far in a variety of areas. But even fully healthy I think adding someone with some legit pop is going to be needed. Looking around the league a team like the Nationals have 2 hitters with 9 Homeruns. Are leader has 5 and his OPS is under .700. It’s only May but it’s fairly concerning.

Hopefully it's just a matter of a bit of an early season team wide slump ala a season ago. A lot of the players expected to provide power have gotten off to slow starts in the power department including all of Springer, Barger and Vlad and once these bats heat up there should be enough slug in the lineup to start scoring in bunches.

[glory]

I don't think this team has a 2025 type of run in them (those types of "everything goes right" runs don't happen often) but confident in securing a Wild Card spot, yes. A lot will depend on health, obviously. Especially to the rotation. They also need another top of the order bat. Looking at the lineup, and assuming Barger comes back strong at some point, the one obvious need is LF. Lukes is what he is, Sanchez is a platoon bat at best, and DS may or may not be playable depending on which type of hitter he decides to be in any given year. Maybe Pinango becomes that guy but I don't think he'll get the playing time to determine that. 

The AL looks very mediocre this season so not getting a WC spot at a minimum would be disappointing. 

[Olerud363.354]

March 27th - Positivity 110/100.  Excited that the 2026 Blue Jays would bring happiness to my summer. I rebought Apple TV and several other streaming services at the beginning of the season in anticipation of watching 162 games,

March 29th - Sweep of As - Positivity down to 109/100, slight, slight tweak down because run differential was a bit off and victories not... easy. 

March 30th - Ponce down - destroyed by Rockies.  Unsettled feeling.  A bit worried.  Positivity 90/100

April 3rd - Kirk down.  Heineman throw bunt away.   Positivity 77/100

Evening April 4th - decided to use my apple TV to check out something called Pluribus (hive mind show, could explain the hive mind on this board. 

April 5th - White Sox sweep - Positivity 50/100.  

April 6th - Dodgers blow out - turned off game first time in years.  Watched the Pluribus. 

April 30 - No offense against Twins turned off game.  Pluribus long watched but watched Pluribus re-runs, and used Apple TV for something called Shrinking.

May 1 - Positivity -10/100.  Hope none.  Game won't even be turned on.   May watch some Raptors but I am sure they will fail me too.   Tonight will watch Pluribus fan theory podcasts + Shrinking.  At least buying all the streaming services introduced me to new shows.  

[Olerud363.354]

Raptors on Prime Video -- which I bought in quest to see all 162 Blue Jays games (105 anticipated victories)....  so even though no longer watching Jays 200 dollars a month of streaming services still at least useful for something. 

Remember when Sportsnet paid Apple TV some sweet cash to get Blue Jays clinching playoff game against Royals on the Sportsnet instead of Apple TV streaming service, but Jays lost 20-1, behind 15-1 or something in first????

That is how this season feels everyday.   Can't believe gave so much good money to all the streaming services for this. 

[RA Whiffleball]

4 hours ago, max silver said:

I have no issue with reasonable criticism of the current version of the Blue Jays as there are plenty of issues that are worthy of criticism. I do however expect this to come with even a modicum of thought processes behind it and even a minimal attempt to look beneath the surface. I see little evidence of you doing either and your criticisms tend to be vapid in nature. As a newcomer with a noted lack of history of intelligent discussion you have zero credibility here, and constantly attempting to portray your dimwitted opinions as facts isn't the zippy comeback you think it is.

Did you use AI to write that? A lot of big words in there - I'm going to have to dig out Mr. Thesaurus for this one. 

[RA Whiffleball]

4 hours ago, Jonn said:

I still think they need a legit bat before they can really get back to where they need to be. And obviously health has been a major factor so far in a variety of areas. But even fully healthy I think adding someone with some legit pop is going to be needed. Looking around the league a team like the Nationals have 2 hitters with 9 Homeruns. Are leader has 5 and his OPS is under .700. It’s only May but it’s fairly concerning.

Good points. Not sure what the plan was in the off-season. There was a brief flirtation with Bregman, but all the bandwidth seemed to go to trying to sign Tucker, and there seemed to be no plan B. I never thought Bo was happening, he was never simpatico with the front office. 

[jaysblue]

1 hour ago, RA Whiffleball said:

Good points. Not sure what the plan was in the off-season. There was a brief flirtation with Bregman, but all the bandwidth seemed to go to trying to sign Tucker, and there seemed to be no plan B. I never thought Bo was happening, he was never simpatico with the front office. 

Yeah it was pretty clear they were targeting another big bat during the offseason, so even this FO know's they probably need another legit bat at some point. 

I mean, not sure there was even a Plan B available after Tucker unless we're talking about Bo or Bregman. Alonso really never fit this roster (and he signed early anyways) and Suarez needed to DH. Maybe Ketel Marte was a Plan B via trade, but never happened. 

[jaysblue]

4 hours ago, glory said:

I don't think this team has a 2025 type of run in them (those types of "everything goes right" runs don't happen often) but confident in securing a Wild Card spot, yes. A lot will depend on health, obviously. Especially to the rotation. They also need another top of the order bat. Looking at the lineup, and assuming Barger comes back strong at some point, the one obvious need is LF. Lukes is what he is, Sanchez is a platoon bat at best, and DS may or may not be playable depending on which type of hitter he decides to be in any given year. Maybe Pinango becomes that guy but I don't think he'll get the playing time to determine that. 

The AL looks very mediocre this season so not getting a WC spot at a minimum would be disappointing. 

Yeah, we can’t expect a complete repeat of last season, even though some people still seem fixated on it.

I agree with everything else you said. The AL doesn’t look especially strong right now, so this slow start may not hurt the Jays as much as we originally thought. That said, I do expect some of the other AL teams - like the Mariners, Tigers, Rangers, and Orioles - to start playing better. The Jays will have to do the same and get rolling again.
 

[Jonn]

Well it seems like they were settled on Okamoto being the bat replacement for Bichette after the markets for everyone else exploded to levels they should have never been signed to. But that was a lot of expectations to put Okamoto to replace Bichette in the lineup. He has shown flashes he could be a good hitter for us for the next four years. I don't know if he's going to be the .800+ OPS bat we need in the middle of the lineup. But so far Bichette hasn't been that for the Mets either so who knows. Even if Okamoto does start playing better they still need a bat in my opinion.

[Spanky__99]

On 5/1/2026 at 6:43 PM, jaysblue said:

Yeah it was pretty clear they were targeting another big bat during the offseason, so even this FO know's they probably need another legit bat at some point. 

I mean, not sure there was even a Plan B available after Tucker unless we're talking about Bo or Bregman. Alonso really never fit this roster (and he signed early anyways) and Suarez needed to DH. Maybe Ketel Marte was a Plan B via trade, but never happened. 

Jays got f*cked by the Santander injury, and replaced him with Sanchez not a bad option. They'll get their needs nearing the deadline. Also, the Jays were in on every bat out there, lets not kid yourselves.

P.S. Jays are 9-4 in their last 13 scoring more than enough runs since... I'm positive with this team moving forward as they get healthier.

[John_Havok]

1 hour ago, jaysblue said:

Yeah, we can’t expect a complete repeat of last season, even though some people still seem fixated on it.

I agree with everything else you said. The AL doesn’t look especially strong right now, so this slow start may not hurt the Jays as much as we originally thought. That said, I do expect some of the other AL teams - like the Mariners, Tigers, Rangers, and Orioles - to start playing better. The Jays will have to do the same and get rolling again.
 

I think expectimg a similar run in 2025 is reasonable, but the problem is now they also need to count on 5+ teams getting markedly worse at the same time. 

That is probably the part that isn't as realistic. The Os actually filled some holes for a change, Tampa is doing their usual Tampa things, Yankees haven't had their old-age month yet. Seattle is legit. 

Im not a White Sox believer though, I think they'll slide. 

Detroit, bit of a wildcard since they have to trade Skubal or theyre insane, but they might just be dumb enough to keep him. 

I think Tampa slides a bit because thats what they do every year towards the deadline when they trade half their 26 man roster. A ton rides on Caminero staying healthy.

Texas... Athletics... im not sold yet but Athletics are the scarier of the 2. Cleveland is the same as theyve always been and will likely end up beween 82-85 wins in the annually weak central.

So, Jays can go on a run, but unless at least 5 of those teams above go tits up, they still wouldnt make it.

[Olerud363.354]

13 hours ago, John_Havok said:

I think expectimg a similar run in 2025 is reasonable, but the problem is now they also need to count on 5+ teams getting markedly worse at the same time. 

As negative as I am there is still lots of time to get over .500 and build and get some separation.

Problem is if they are in this position late August in a 5 team race for 1 wild card with the division out of reach then it is just a lottery. 

Used my Prime Subscription to watch Raptors.  As they blew a 10 point I knew it was true that they would disappoint me too but a miracle happened.  Then I checked the twitter and they were tweeting about 2 Okamota bombs. 

Positivity 7:00 pm May 1st - -10/100

Positivity 9:48 am May 2nd - 15/100 (slight improvement)

Expectations - still very little

Sunday - everyone will disappoint and will use my streaming subscriptions to watch Better Call Saul.  

[Olerud363.354]

Optimism 22/100 

Okamota ?  Power tool 70?  110 mphers regularily at 22-33 degrees.  450 feet easy power.

Brandon Venuezuala ?  Power tool 60?  110 mphers occasionally at 22-33 degrees. 

Myles Straw.  Power tool 40.  Seems improved from last year and hit the upper deck 395 feet or so. 

Vladimir 'Luis Aaerez' Guerrero Jr power tool 30.  Contributes in other ways.  Key walk in the 8 run inning. 

[Spanky__99]

[Spanky__99]

9-4 in their last 13 with reinforcements to come... 🤔

[max silver]

On 5/1/2026 at 6:04 PM, John_Havok said:

I think expectimg a similar run in 2025 is reasonable, but the problem is now they also need to count on 5+ teams getting markedly worse at the same time. 

That is probably the part that isn't as realistic. The Os actually filled some holes for a change, Tampa is doing their usual Tampa things, Yankees haven't had their old-age month yet. Seattle is legit. 

Im not a White Sox believer though, I think they'll slide. 

Detroit, bit of a wildcard since they have to trade Skubal or theyre insane, but they might just be dumb enough to keep him. 

I think Tampa slides a bit because thats what they do every year towards the deadline when they trade half their 26 man roster. A ton rides on Caminero staying healthy.

Texas... Athletics... im not sold yet but Athletics are the scarier of the 2. Cleveland is the same as theyve always been and will likely end up beween 82-85 wins in the annually weak central.

So, Jays can go on a run, but unless at least 5 of those teams above go tits up, they still wouldnt make it.

If the Jays go on a run similar to last season they are going to rocket up the standings no matter what the rest of the AL does.