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Posted
1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

That helps, as Jake Cook is off to a brutal start.

I'm not terribly worried about Cook as he's just getting his feet wet as a first year professional and missed the first month of the season due to injury. I recall the goal with Cook was to unlock some impact with the bat and as such there are bound to be some growing pains as he adjusts to a retooled swing.

Posted
7 minutes ago, max silver said:

I'm not terribly worried about Cook as he's just getting his feet wet as a first year professional and missed the first month of the season due to injury. I recall the goal with Cook was to unlock some impact with the bat and as such there are bound to be some growing pains as he adjusts to a retooled swing.

Unfortunately, I think there's a high probability that Cook is a bust.  He seemed like a swing at upside, given his athleticism.  The athlete is so good that we'll "fix him" and make him a ball player.  Similar to Anthony Alford perhaps (although he was pre-occupied playing football and the hope was he'd become a ball player once he quit football).

I would have said this before he played any games.  Obviously far too early to declare he's a bust, but he's a high risk profile as someone who didn't have a ton of success in College.

Good news is he also has a relatively high floor as his CF defense alone might drag him to the majors ala Anthony Gose (who's still trying to make it as a pitcher - he's in AAA for KC at age 35, still trying to live the dream).

At least his name isn't Anthony.

Posted
1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

Unfortunately, I think there's a high probability that Cook is a bust.  He seemed like a swing at upside, given his athleticism.  The athlete is so good that we'll "fix him" and make him a ball player.  Similar to Anthony Alford perhaps (although he was pre-occupied playing football and the hope was he'd become a ball player once he quit football).

I would have said this before he played any games.  Obviously far too early to declare he's a bust, but he's a high risk profile as someone who didn't have a ton of success in College.

Good news is he also has a relatively high floor as his CF defense alone might drag him to the majors ala Anthony Gose (who's still trying to make it as a pitcher - he's in AAA for KC at age 35, still trying to live the dream).

At least his name isn't Anthony.

I kind of hope you are joking as this is needlessly alarmist. Cook is a converted pitcher who only received 284 PA in a single season hitting in the NCAA. Despite the lack of experience with the bat he posted some impressive numbers including a 6.7% strikeout rate. He was more of a slap hitter at that point but despite the fact he just started hitting full time that season he displayed very impressive bat to ball skills on the way to a .905 OPS/131 wRC+. 

He's a bit of a project but I fully support the effort underway to unlock a little extra base power from his swing. This isn't a player who needs to be "fixed" as he's an elite athlete who can likely slap hit his way to something like an 80 wRC+ bat but there's a lot more potential if the club can unlock more juice. He has all of 52 PA as a professional and it's downright absurd to be musing over whether he's already a bust at this point.

Posted
3 hours ago, max silver said:

I kind of hope you are joking as this is needlessly alarmist. Cook is a converted pitcher who only received 284 PA in a single season hitting in the NCAA. Despite the lack of experience with the bat he posted some impressive numbers including a 6.7% strikeout rate. He was more of a slap hitter at that point but despite the fact he just started hitting full time that season he displayed very impressive bat to ball skills on the way to a .905 OPS/131 wRC+. 

He's a bit of a project but I fully support the effort underway to unlock a little extra base power from his swing. This isn't a player who needs to be "fixed" as he's an elite athlete who can likely slap hit his way to something like an 80 wRC+ bat but there's a lot more potential if the club can unlock more juice. He has all of 52 PA as a professional and it's downright absurd to be musing over whether he's already a bust at this point.

All of what you said is true, but it also means that he's on my shelf of "check on in 2 years to see if he's still around". he's not a daily boxscore check like many others are. 

Posted
3 hours ago, max silver said:

I kind of hope you are joking as this is needlessly alarmist. Cook is a converted pitcher who only received 284 PA in a single season hitting in the NCAA. Despite the lack of experience with the bat he posted some impressive numbers including a 6.7% strikeout rate. He was more of a slap hitter at that point but despite the fact he just started hitting full time that season he displayed very impressive bat to ball skills on the way to a .905 OPS/131 wRC+. 

He's a bit of a project but I fully support the effort underway to unlock a little extra base power from his swing. This isn't a player who needs to be "fixed" as he's an elite athlete who can likely slap hit his way to something like an 80 wRC+ bat but there's a lot more potential if the club can unlock more juice. He has all of 52 PA as a professional and it's downright absurd to be musing over whether he's already a bust at this point.

It's not alarmist. He's a third round pick in the Rule 4 draft. There is a high probability that he's a bust, statistically, and that's before even considering his profile which is probably more boom or bust than a normal 3rd rounder. 

I think the expected WAR of a pick in the 80-100 range is like, 1.2 career WAR. 

Posted
30 minutes ago, Laika said:

It's not alarmist. He's a third round pick in the Rule 4 draft. There is a high probability that he's a bust, statistically, and that's before even considering his profile which is probably more boom or bust than a normal 3rd rounder. 

I think the expected WAR of a pick in the 80-100 range is like, 1.2 career WAR. 

This is a lot more nuanced take than basing bust status on a couple of weeks worth of plate appearances for a first year pro. 

Posted
1 hour ago, max silver said:

This is a lot more nuanced take than basing bust status on a couple of weeks worth of plate appearances for a first year pro. 

Dude - I didn't say he was falling into "bust status" after a couple of weeks worth of PA's.  I said he was a high risk of busting the day he was drafted, which is fundamentally and statistically correct.

Although I'm sure Olerud would point out that a 22 year old who can't hit CPX pitching has almost a 1000% chance of being a bust and that belief stabilizes after very few PA's.

Posted
19 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Dude - I didn't say he was falling into "bust status" after a couple of weeks worth of PA's.  I said he was a high risk of busting the day he was drafted, which is fundamentally and statistically correct.

Although I'm sure Olerud would point out that a 22 year old who can't hit CPX pitching has almost a 1000% chance of being a bust and that belief stabilizes after very few PA's.

I'm calling shenanigans. You had a small aside about Cook's draft status but the crux of your post was obviously based on the poor results in an incredibly small sample size.

Quote

Unfortunately, I think there's a high probability that Cook is a bust.  He seemed like a swing at upside, given his athleticism.  The athlete is so good that we'll "fix him" and make him a ball player.  Similar to Anthony Alford perhaps

Feel free to explain how any of this paragraph wasn't based on poor results in what essentially amounts to two weeks of plate appearances in a first year pro.

Posted
1 hour ago, max silver said:

I'm calling shenanigans. You had a small aside about Cook's draft status but the crux of your post was obviously based on the poor results in an incredibly small sample size.

Feel free to explain how any of this paragraph wasn't based on poor results in what essentially amounts to two weeks of plate appearances in a first year pro.

I had a whole paragraph that explained it man.  I don't know what else to tell you. 

Obviously there is "some" element of current results factored in - but I'm not some SSS moron.  The early results increase the concern.

 

Posted
11 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

I had a whole paragraph that explained it man.  I don't know what else to tell you. 

Obviously there is "some" element of current results factored in - but I'm not some SSS moron.  The early results increase the concern.

 

I don't think the iffy early results materially change Cook's bust chances, but I could see how they might be viewed as reducing his chance's of maximizing the ceiling. I believe if Cook can't make the new swing profile work he can always revert to the slap hitting style he employed in college and experience some success. He's likely the fastest player in the minors and I've seen reports that suggest he could capably man center field in the majors right now. It appears as though he basically possessed a Chandler Simpson style offensive toolset at the plate and if worse came to worse there's a good chance he could reach MLB using that kind of approach.

There was an interesting article in the Athletic over the winter that outlined the club's approach to Cook's offensive game.

Quote

As Jake Cook darted beyond the final yard marker, one scout nodded and turned to his clipboard-holding peers. Another chuckled as the outfielder’s 30-yard dash time was announced over the public-address system, 3.50 seconds, echoing around the MLB Draft Combine’s sparse stadium.

It was the best time of the day and tied for the top mark since the combine’s inception in 2021. But Cook, drafted by the Toronto Blue Jays four weeks later, said he could’ve run faster.

 

The 22-year-old was nursing a femur splint that dogged his left leg for most of the 2025 college season. Had he been fully healthy, Cook said, he would’ve trained for the sprint instead of taking time off after his final season at Southern Mississippi. He hadn’t run in weeks.

“I probably would’ve done a little bit better,” Cook said over the phone in January.

Still, Cook’s combine showing earned a rare 80 speed grade ahead of the 2025 MLB Draft (maxing out scouting’s 20 to 80 scale). Despite just one full season at the college level, that tantalizing athleticism propelled Cook up draft boards and made him Toronto’s third-round pick, No. 81.

SBCTourneyTXST-03812.jpg
Jake Cook will likely start the 2026 season in Single-A Dunedin.University of Southern Mississippi Athletics

Cook joined an organization that’s struggled to develop game-changing outfielders in recent years, hoping to start his climb to the big leagues when he reports to Blue Jays spring training in February. He knows the comparisons he’ll get to Chandler Simpson, Billy Hamilton and other quick outfielders that came before. But he wants to be more than a sprinter.

“My goal as a baseball player is to not be a speed guy,” Cook said. “I want to be a guy that has speed.”

The Madison, Miss., native is a fascinating prospect — a bet on rawness over reps. He recorded just 304 plate appearances in three years at Southern Miss. Recruited as a two-way player, Cook redshirted his freshman season. He then missed time with a torn labrum and shoulder surgery and didn’t face live pitching for essentially two full years. He spent more time at the dugout railing than in front of MLB scouts.

Then, ahead of the 2025 season, Golden Eagles assistant coach Ladd Rhodes watched Cook shagging batting practice in the outfield. Still recovering from shoulder surgery, Cook couldn’t yet dive. He didn’t need to. He covered ground in every direction, vacuuming line drives in the gap and gliding under deep flies at the wall.

“That’s our centre fielder,” Rhodes said he thought at the time, “if he can hit it all.”

 

Cook was cleared to face real pitching a month later. He quickly snatched the Golden Eagles’ leadoff job, hitting .350 with the 13th-lowest strikeout rate in Division I last year (minimum 200 at-bats). That combination of elite contact and freakish speed gives Cook a clear floor and a path to the big leagues. Likely starting the 2026 season in Single-A Dunedin, the lefty now wants to find his ceiling.

In the first weeks of Cook’s final college campaign, Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Simpson began to gain hype. He was slapping grounders, reaching first and stealing his way around the bases in spring training and Triple A. In April, Simpson earned his big-league promotion. For a time, Cook embraced that style. “I mean, I can do that,” Cook thought.

He didn’t steal much, as he was still coming off shoulder surgery and playing for a Southern Miss program that isn’t particularly aggressive on the bases. But he hacked the ball around the field and found ways to get on base. Now he aims higher.

 

“I don’t want to be like a speed guy,” Cook said, “where I’m chopping the ball and then running to first and then steal and then steal. Like, yes, it works, but that’s not really how I want to play the game.”

There’s nothing wrong with Simpson’s style, Cook said, but at 6 feet 3 and nearly 200 pounds, Cook knows he can bring offence in other ways. He homered twice in Southern Miss’ conference tournament contests, but notched just one other dinger all year. Over 75 percent of his hits in 2025 were singles.

4.25AppState-01519.jpg
Jake Cook honed his swing this offseason, aiming to add more power.University of Southern Mississippi Athletics

The Blue Jays shut Cook down after the 2025 draft, bringing him to the club’s development complex in Florida. After two weeks off, ensuring his femur fully recovered, Cook got in the team’s hitting lab. With dozens of cameras tracking every movement, Cook adjusted his bat path. He’d swing, turn to the screen providing feedback, then face the next pitch. His goal was to add more loft and catch the ball out front — a recipe for slug.

 

Rhodes saw the new look when Cook returned to Southern Miss’ facilities over the holidays. The swing had more loft, the bat speed was up and Cook had gotten stronger, Rhodes said. It was everything the assistant coach preached was possible when he talked to scouts in the summer, before Cook tied Jeric Curtis (2022) for the combine’s 30-yard-dash record.

“I don’t think he’s even close to, potentially, what he has from a power standpoint,” Rhodes said he told scouts.

Cook doesn’t intentionally mold himself after other hitters. However, if he were something like Simpson in 2025, he’d love to be more like Byron Buxton. It’s a lofty comparison, Cook acknowledges, as Buxton likely possesses more power than he’ll ever tap into. The Minnesota Twins outfielder had 63 extra-base hits last year and Cook notched just 20 in his entire college career. But that’s the sort of ceiling he’s searching for in 2026 and beyond.

It’s one thing to adjust a swing in an offseason hitting lab and another to bring it to professional games. Cook will have to balance his offensive aims with improved base-stealing while staying healthy during the longest season of his life. But at least he has his speed. He wants to see what else is in there.

“I’m excited,” Cook said, “to kind of find out who I am as a hitter.”

 

Posted

It's hard to fathom the fastest guy in the minors was 3 for 8 stealing bases in college last year.  

Did they forget to tell him he can "go" before the pitcher releases the ball?  

 

Posted
35 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

It's hard to fathom the fastest guy in the minors was 3 for 8 stealing bases in college last year.  

Did they forget to tell him he can "go" before the pitcher releases the ball?  

 

The article mentioned that he was coming off of shoulder surgery so they didn't want him diving very often and the team wasn't very aggressive on the bases as well.

Posted
20 hours ago, max silver said:

This isn't a player who needs to be "fixed" as he's an elite athlete who can likely slap hit his way to something like an 80 wRC+ bat but there's a lot more potential if the club can unlock more juice. He has all of 52 PA as a professional and it's downright absurd to be musing over whether he's already a bust at this point.

I don't think anyone is implying he is a bust.  But he is a 22 year old project.    A 22 year old College player who was destined to be a major league regular would already be in double a, or dominating A+. 

It is nice to see he has 9 walks I think against 13 strike-outs.   Only 50 at bats but needs to start hitting this year.  

That may seem extreme, but if he doesn't hit this year, they won't move him to Vancouver next, and then what do you have?  An athletic 23 year old in low A Florida ball, still trying to learn how to hit?   Not a great chance to be a major leaguer. 

 

Posted
33 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

I don't think anyone is implying he is a bust.  But he is a 22 year old project.    A 22 year old College player who was destined to be a major league regular would already be in double a, or dominating A+. 

It is nice to see he has 9 walks I think against 13 strike-outs.   Only 50 at bats but needs to start hitting this year.  

That may seem extreme, but if he doesn't hit this year, they won't move him to Vancouver next, and then what do you have?  An athletic 23 year old in low A Florida ball, still trying to learn how to hit?   Not a great chance to be a major leaguer. 

 

Age is kind of irrelevant here as Cook didn't start hitting full time until his draft season. He's not a typical hitting prospect who would have 3-4 years of full time hitting in college so he's very inexperienced at the plate relative to his age. I think the club challenged him with a promotion to Dunedin and it's possible he wasn't necessarily ready for this as he wasn't lighting things up in his short stint in rookie ball. I can only guess it was due to there being fewer rookie level teams after contraction by MLB and the club having several recent draftees that they wanted to receive regular center field reps. 

Posted
14 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

It's hard to fathom the fastest guy in the minors was 3 for 8 stealing bases in college last year.

You brought up Gose and Alford earlier.  Both were super-fast but neither great base stealers if I remember.  

Gose is actually kind of comparable to Nimmala age 18, 19, 20.  Low average but some secondary skills. had a very nice year at aa at age 20.  

Alford didn't play full time until age 20, where he had great year at high A+.  

Those two actually performed in the minors at a relatively young age, and still didn't make it as regulars.   Outside of Nimmala no high school/international draftee in the system has reached Alford/Gose level.  Proven they can play a full year in mid minors, and not be destroyed by strike-outs.  

Parker/Bullard might get there this year, or might be even better by the end of the year, or might get eaten alive by their strike outs and be the next Tucker Toman.  

Posted
16 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Although I'm sure Olerud would point out that a 22 year old who can't hit CPX pitching has almost a 1000% chance of being a bust and that belief stabilizes after very few PA's.

I am betting it would stabilize after a certain k/b ratio and I pointed out Cook is nowhere near that. 

The main guy I wrote off very early was Emanuel Bonilla after 30 ks with 3 walks in Florida morning ball.  Cook is already at 9 walks only 13 ks.  If he gets to a 10 k per 1 walk ratio any time soon I'll gladly write him off. 

I never wrote off Nimmala just lowered his ceiling based on early results and stand by that.  More of Anthony Gose with a bit more pop kind of guy... maybe he'll make it.  We'll see.  

Posted
1 hour ago, max silver said:

Age is kind of irrelevant here as Cook didn't start hitting full time until his draft season.

But he had 250 PAs last year in College and did quite well.  

I just think there is inherent hand eye coordination factor with prospects that if they have it, or don't have it, it shows up right away in many cases.  If you have it you hit .350 with 20 walks and 10 ks first 6 weeks facing professional pitching, if you don't you hit .150 with 2 walks and 35 ks the first 6 weeks. 

Cook hasn't done anything extreme in his short sample size either way.   

Posted

Every prospect is different.  But I'm always shocked at how well bad players had to do in the minors on the road to become bad players.  Like you have to hit the s*** out of the low levels to even get a chance to have your weaknesses revealed in double a. 

Like Bradley Zimmer?  Is that a good comparable for Cook?  Like people would be happy if he becomes Bradley Zimmer?  Or are they hoping for more?  https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=zimmer000bra

Last year of College Cook and Zimmer were comparable statistically, though no idea of the difficulty of competition.   Drafted same age.  As has been pointed out Cook did not have a full college hitting career, but did fine his one year. 

Zimmer started playing the year he got drafted, In the now out of business NYPL hit .300 .400 .460 30 ks 19 walks 45 games. 

At Cooks age was already in high A .308 .403 .493  in 78 games.

Then moved AA where they finally uncovered his Bradley Zimmerness.  

Like it's such a hard road.  So that's why I say the next 6 weeks is super-important for a guy like Jake Cook.  If he does have the hand eye to make it, that should show at least enough to see him in Vancouver next year. 

 

 

Posted

It will be interesting to see how Nimmala does in an almost full season at double A. 

His big advantage is that he seems to be consensus considered to project as an average shortstop. That gives him a bit more room on the hitting side. He also has struck out a little less than gose at high A. 

I'm pretty optimistic on Nimmala but obviously anyone can be a half grade off in multiple spots the wrong way and bust. 

Posted
31 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

Every prospect is different.  But I'm always shocked at how well bad players had to do in the minors on the road to become bad players.  Like you have to hit the s*** out of the low levels to even get a chance to have your weaknesses revealed in double a. 

Like Bradley Zimmer?  Is that a good comparable for Cook?  Like people would be happy if he becomes Bradley Zimmer?  Or are they hoping for more?  https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=zimmer000bra

Last year of College Cook and Zimmer were comparable statistically, though no idea of the difficulty of competition.   Drafted same age.  As has been pointed out Cook did not have a full college hitting career, but did fine his one year. 

Zimmer started playing the year he got drafted, In the now out of business NYPL hit .300 .400 .460 30 ks 19 walks 45 games. 

At Cooks age was already in high A .308 .403 .493  in 78 games.

Then moved AA where they finally uncovered his Bradley Zimmerness.  

Like it's such a hard road.  So that's why I say the next 6 weeks is super-important for a guy like Jake Cook.  If he does have the hand eye to make it, that should show at least enough to see him in Vancouver next year. 

 

 

As far as i understand Cook was almost all a physical development pick. He's really fast, his force plate numbers were really high but he had basically been a pitcher not a hitter. 

The bust potential is high, but there is also a possible secondary path as an good fielding slappy cf, 4th outfielder type .

Posted
1 hour ago, Olerud363.354 said:

But he had 250 PAs last year in College and did quite well.  

I just think there is inherent hand eye coordination factor with prospects that if they have it, or don't have it, it shows up right away in many cases.  If you have it you hit .350 with 20 walks and 10 ks first 6 weeks facing professional pitching, if you don't you hit .150 with 2 walks and 35 ks the first 6 weeks. 

Cook hasn't done anything extreme in his short sample size either way.   

I think with Cook the fact he's incorporating a retooled swing for the first time in game action is a massive factor. He displayed few issues making contact in college as he walked more than he struck out with more of a slap happy approach and it stands to reason that the new swing is likely quite a bit longer in nature comparatively speaking. 

Posted
3 hours ago, jmomcc said:

It will be interesting to see how Nimmala does in an almost full season at double A. 

His big advantage is that he seems to be consensus considered to project as an average shortstop. That gives him a bit more room on the hitting side. He also has struck out a little less than gose at high A. 

I'm pretty optimistic on Nimmala but obviously anyone can be a half grade off in multiple spots the wrong way and bust. 

He looks much better now so far in AA. Hopefully he keeps it up.

Posted

Nolan Perry with another great performance.  6 innings 8 ks.  0 runs.

Same age as Trey. 

Should he make next start in Toronto?  Most upside of anybody.  I guess you don't to blow an option or anything but he is a year older than Trey was last year.   

We don't know for sure if another Trey like thing can happen, but why not start using him when there is a need?   

What is crazier?

1.  Calling up a just turned 22 year old, started in Dunedin September 20th then trusting him with the 8 most important games the last 10 years? 

2.  Calling up a soon to be 23 year old, started in Dunedin, May 29th and trusting him the the 500th most important game in the last 10 years, as a risk move and instead of some 27 year old quadruple a guy.

Posted

Just saying if Perry is the next Trey, do you wait 3 months to know for sure?  Or take a risk and use him when there is a need?  There might not even be a need late September if the season goes no where, or on the positive side rotation is Cease, Gausman, Yesivage, Beiber all at full power. 

Posted
6 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

Just saying if Perry is the next Trey, do you wait 3 months to know for sure?  Or take a risk and use him when there is a need?  There might not even be a need late September if the season goes no where, or on the positive side rotation is Cease, Gausman, Yesivage, Beiber all at full power. 

He's in High A ball... Trey pitched at both AA and AAA before coming up. Surely you're not advocating for calling up Perry straight from A+ ball in a season where he's fresh off of UCL surgery recovery and definitely going to be on a hard innings/pitch cap before being shut down. 

Posted
32 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

Nolan Perry with another great performance.  6 innings 8 ks.  0 runs.

Same age as Trey. 

Should he make next start in Toronto?  Most upside of anybody.  I guess you don't to blow an option or anything but he is a year older than Trey was last year.   

We don't know for sure if another Trey like thing can happen, but why not start using him when there is a need?   

What is crazier?

1.  Calling up a just turned 22 year old, started in Dunedin September 20th then trusting him with the 8 most important games the last 10 years? 

2.  Calling up a soon to be 23 year old, started in Dunedin, May 29th and trusting him the the 500th most important game in the last 10 years, as a risk move and instead of some 27 year old quadruple a guy.

There's far more to this conversation than just age. Yesavage was already built up to a far higher workload as he threw 93 innings in college in his draft season. Perry has maxed out at 46 innings in 2024 prior to UCL surgery and will likely be shut down far before the major league season ends. 

Posted

 I actually saw that start last night. 

Assuming the stadium gun is correct, he topped 95, sat 94 for the first 3 innings and then was 94/93 for the last 3. 

They seemed to have a ton of lefties so it was a good test for him. He gave up some decently hard contact including a lead off double but struck guys out when he needed to. They also picked a guy off at second and threw a guy out stealing for two outs. 

There were some ugly swings on breaking balls especially from righties. A couple of the lefties were called strike three. 
 

edit: dub gleed seems to have replaced eddie micheletti as fan favourite. I think people like yelling his name. And i can't remember who won the sushi race but as always it was the biggest event of the night. It was also 75 cent hot dog night and people were kind of going mental housing hot dogs. 

Posted
1 hour ago, John_Havok said:

He's in High A ball... Trey pitched at both AA and AAA before coming up. Surely you're not advocating for calling up Perry straight from A+ ball in a season where he's fresh off of UCL surgery recovery and definitely going to be on a hard innings/pitch cap before being shut down. 

More the reason to call him up.  He might not even be available in September.  

It's rare but there is nothing special about getting called up from A+, happens from time to time.  Roberto Osuna was called up from a-ball, with no experience, 2 years after TJ.  Nolan Perry is also 2 years after TJ and 2 years older than Osuna was.

Plenty of examples of bold out of the box moves that were risky but paid off.  Spencer Miles too (so far).

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