Jays Signing Cease 7 years 210M

[Spanky__99]

1 hour ago, philly30 said:

Insane contract for a guy that is not good anymore, why should anyone feel positive

[thatoneguy]

1 hour ago, philly30 said:

Insane contract for a guy that is not good anymore, why should anyone feel positive

What?

[Eat My Shatkins]

Haha. There always has to be a contrarian kicking around.

I'd imagine the next 6 pages of this thread will consist of the contrarian arguing with 20 different people about how much Cease sucks despite him averaging 4+ fWAR the last 5 seasons, having 200+ Ks per season and 32 starts per season for the last 5 seasons all because he had 4.55 ERA and an 8-12 record in 2025 lol

 

He suxxxxx

 

 

[Joltin Joe]

11 hours ago, Sasky05 said:

Gerrit Cole is $36M per year, Fried about $27, I don't think this is an overpay

Cease isn't an ace. He's #2. Doesn't pitch deep into games will wear your bullpen. Walks is why, Gives up too many homeruns for Rogers. Likely slide to a #3. 

[jaysblue]

I wouldn't think the Jays are done in terms of adding to their rotation. Like some on here have already said, they might try to build a rotation of all #1/2 arms. As well, they might try to replicate what the Dodgers did with their pitching to an extent during the regular season/postseason. Maybe they ease Bieber and Yesavage throughout the first half since they likely want to watch their innings totals with Bieber coming back from injury and Yesavage still only 22. As for Gausman and Cease, they make their 30+ starts each. Maybe Bieber and Yesavage around 20ish during the regular season, so they can be let loose in September and the Postseason. Berrios might be pushed to 6th on their depth charts, but he'll still be utilized throughout the regular season. 

[jaysblue]

19 minutes ago, Joltin Joe said:

Cease isn't an ace. He's #2. Doesn't pitch deep into games will wear your bullpen. Walks is why, Gives up too many homeruns for Rogers. Likely slide to a #3. 

Yeah Cease isn't an ace at the moment but he has the potential to be an ace if he puts it all together. Getting out of Chicago helped and hopefully now with the Jays system, they can help him work towards that.

This signing kind of reminds me of when the Jays signed AJ Burnett during the 2005/2006 offseason. Burnett at the time was at a similar age and more of a No. 2 throughout his career, though had the stuff and all the potential to become an ace. The only difference between Burnett and Cease has been durability. At the time, health/durability was Burnett's issue as we saw in 2006 and 2007 he only made around 20-25 starts each of those seasons. Though in 2008, he pretty much developed into that ace Toronto envisioned during his opt out year lol, posting a 5 WAR season. Sucked with the Yankees after, though put together some solid years with the Pirates. 

The plus with Cease is durability and a healthy track record, so you know he's good for 30+ starts and around 170-180 innings and likely a floor of 3.5-4 WAR, which is still very good. Cease has the potential to turn in a 5-6 WAR season if he puts everything together and that is exciting! 

[ValiantJaysFan]

1 hour ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

Haha. There always has to be a contrarian kicking around.

I'd imagine the next 6 pages of this thread will consist of the contrarian arguing with 20 different people about how much Cease sucks despite him averaging 4+ fWAR the last 5 seasons, having 200+ Ks per season and 32 starts per season for the last 5 seasons all because he had 4.55 ERA and an 8-12 record in 2025 lol

 

He suxxxxx

 

 

I don’t think anyone here is saying Cease “sucks.” The issue isn’t whether he can rack up strikeouts or accumulate fWAR in a FIP-friendly model. Everyone knows the stuff is elite. The question is whether that profile is worth seven years, not whether he’s capable of a good season.

If you’re going to bring up fWAR, then you also have to acknowledge the full context: Cease’s value is driven heavily by strikeouts and FIP estimators that tend to favor high-K, high-BB pitchers even when their actual run prevention fluctuates wildly year to year. His ERA bouncing between 2.20 and 4.70 isn’t “contrarian opinion,” it’s his statistical reality. That level of variance matters a lot when you’re committing $210M and expecting stability for the better part of a decade.

It’s not about one season of 4.55 ERA. It’s about the fact that Cease has shown real command volatility, deep counts, and hard-contact issues when the slider isn’t sharp, and those traits usually don’t age cleanly into a pitcher’s 30s. No one is denying the upside. The concern is the downside — and with Cease, the gap between the two is bigger than it is for most pitchers who get this kind of contract.

This is the exact profile I was worried the Jays would chase. If you enjoy the kind of outings where a pitcher alternates strikeouts with walks and hard contact, leading to 90+ pitches by the third or fourth inning, then sure, celebrate it. But that’s been Cease’s pattern. He’s got a ton of upside, but he also has a ton to prove. It’s great that Rogers is opening the wallet, but this is not a low-stress pitcher. The Jays already had plenty of volatility with guys like Berríos; this deal adds even more.

[Eat My Shatkins]

5 minutes ago, ValiantJaysFan said:

I don’t think anyone here is saying Cease “sucks.” The issue isn’t whether he can rack up strikeouts or accumulate fWAR in a FIP-friendly model. Everyone knows the stuff is elite. The question is whether that profile is worth seven years, not whether he’s capable of a good season.

If you’re going to bring up fWAR, then you also have to acknowledge the full context: Cease’s value is driven heavily by strikeouts and FIP estimators that tend to favor high-K, high-BB pitchers even when their actual run prevention fluctuates wildly year to year. His ERA bouncing between 2.20 and 4.70 isn’t “contrarian opinion,” it’s his statistical reality. That level of variance matters a lot when you’re committing $210M and expecting stability for the better part of a decade.

It’s not about one season of 4.55 ERA. It’s about the fact that Cease has shown real command volatility, deep counts, and hard-contact issues when the slider isn’t sharp, and those traits usually don’t age cleanly into a pitcher’s 30s. No one is denying the upside. The concern is the downside — and with Cease, the gap between the two is bigger than it is for most pitchers who get this kind of contract.

This is the exact profile I was worried the Jays would chase. If you enjoy the kind of outings where a pitcher alternates strikeouts with walks and hard contact, leading to 90+ pitches by the third or fourth inning, then sure, celebrate it. But that’s been Cease’s pattern. He’s got a ton of upside, but he also has a ton to prove. It’s great that Rogers is opening the wallet, but this is not a low-stress pitcher. The Jays already had plenty of volatility with guys like Berríos; this deal adds even more.

The guy literally said Cease "is not good anymore" word for word.

[ValiantJaysFan]

24 minutes ago, Eat My Shatkins said:

The guy literally said Cease "is not good anymore" word for word.

Yeah, sorry, just adding my two cents. Quoted you because I was about to play contrarian. 😂

[Sorrow]

Cease has had a 6 win season by RA9WAR.

 

yes it’s an overpay but he has the most potential of basically every pitcher on the market and is durable 

[itaos]

2 hours ago, Joltin Joe said:

Cease isn't an ace. He's #2. Doesn't pitch deep into games will wear your bullpen. Walks is why, Gives up too many homeruns for Rogers. Likely slide to a #3. 

I had that impression about Cease too after witnessing a few 4 ip outing but over 2021-2025:

[BTS]

Toronto's success identifying starting pitching has pretty much been off the charts:

- Bassit just finished up a 3/63 deal over which he made 95 starts and put up 7.3 fWAR

- Gausman finishing a 5/110 deal where he's started 125 games in 4 years and put up 17.9 fWAR

- Trade for Robbie Ray and he wins the CY in his only full season with the team

- Sign Kikuchi for 3/36 and he gives them 5.3 fWAR, and finishes the deal strong enough that he's one of the biggest deadline trade pieces in 2024

- Bring Eric Lauer back from the KBO on a minor league deal and he gives them 105 innings of 3.18 ERA ball

- Drafting Yesavage 20th overall in 2024

- Pick up Ross Stripling for cheap. He has a career season with 3 fWAR. Then the team lets him sign a landmine deal in SF that immediately blows up. 

 

They've become an organization that you just assume knows what they're doing as far as pitching is concerned. If they've been after Cease for three years it isn't because they like his FIP and WAR on Fangraphs.com. The contract isn't an overpay. Everyone else just underbid. 

[PitaBaby]

Yes yes. It's time to go scorched earth. ALL IN ON EVERYBODY.

[Jimcanuck]

7 minutes ago, PitaBaby said:

Yes yes. It's time to go scorched earth. ALL IN ON EVERYBODY.

Nah this FO is strategic and one of the best in MLB at finding market inefficiencies.  That being the case, there are a few more surprises in store for this offseason.  The obvious move is to re-sign Bo, but the more likely move is something better that none of us have thought of.

 

 

[Laika]

9 minutes ago, BTS said:

Toronto's success identifying starting pitching has pretty much been off the charts:

- Bassit just finished up a 3/63 deal over which he made 95 starts and put up 7.3 fWAR

- Gausman finishing a 5/110 deal where he's started 125 games in 4 years and put up 17.9 fWAR

- Trade for Robbie Ray and he wins the CY in his only full season with the team

- Sign Kikuchi for 3/36 and he gives them 5.3 fWAR, and finishes the deal strong enough that he's one of the biggest deadline trade pieces in 2024

- Bring Eric Lauer back from the KBO on a minor league deal and he gives them 105 innings of 3.18 ERA ball

- Drafting Yesavage 20th overall in 2024

- Pick up Ross Stripling for cheap. He has a career season with 3 fWAR. Then the team lets him sign a landmine deal in SF that immediately blows up. 

 

They've become an organization that you just assume knows what they're doing as far as pitching is concerned. If they've been after Cease for three years it isn't because they like his FIP and WAR on Fangraphs.com. The contract isn't an overpay. Everyone else just underbid. 

The Jays have only missed on some of the backend SP options like Mitch White 

The contract value factoring in deferrals is also almost exactly what MLBTR predicted. 

I think it's hard to characterize this as an overpay when you consider age and focus on the actual AAV. 

Cease is one year younger than Max Fried was last offseason. Fried got 8 years at $27.25 AAV. 
Cease is getting 7 with about a $26m AAV.

Fried got that ^ after a nearly identical platform year by DIPS and fWAR. 

Fried is almost the opposite of Cease. Fried being sort of inexplicably good (analysts had a hard time understanding how he kept the ERA so low) while Cease has been inexplicably bad at ERA. 

Aaron Nola got basically this contract as an EXTENSION two years ago while sitting 92.9 mph 

Cease is only 30! 

 

[Governator]

Anyone who has an issue with this deal is just being naive.  Couldn't have asked for a better start to the offseason.

[Laika]

14 minutes ago, Jimcanuck said:

Nah this FO is strategic and one of the best in MLB at finding market inefficiencies.  That being the case, there are a few more surprises in store for this offseason.  The obvious move is to re-sign Bo, but the more likely move is something better that none of us have thought of.

 

 

Yeah most ppl here would need to admit that they (we) want Bo back partially for narrative or feel good reasons. There are better and more efficient moves to make. Bo might come back, we have seen Toronto move inefficiently before when they had to (Vlad, Gimenez trade, etc.), but nobody should really expect it for all of the obvious baseball reasons. I feel like he comes back on a pillow deal like Bregman/Alonso last offseason if his market never develops. 

[glory]

The only issue with the deal is 7 years but I’m pretty sure Cease was going to get at least 6 years regardless, so tacking on an extra year to get the player was the right call if they believed he was worth it. As mentioned the Jays have a good track record with veteran starters recently. Durability combined with velocity, swing/miss, and upside is worth the risk.

[Sorrow]

I wouldn’t be shocked, just in response to the stuff we don’t see coming, if we do trade for Marte and add another OF bat.

[jmomcc]

31 minutes ago, BTS said:

Toronto's success identifying starting pitching has pretty much been off the charts:

- Bassit just finished up a 3/63 deal over which he made 95 starts and put up 7.3 fWAR

- Gausman finishing a 5/110 deal where he's started 125 games in 4 years and put up 17.9 fWAR

- Trade for Robbie Ray and he wins the CY in his only full season with the team

- Sign Kikuchi for 3/36 and he gives them 5.3 fWAR, and finishes the deal strong enough that he's one of the biggest deadline trade pieces in 2024

- Bring Eric Lauer back from the KBO on a minor league deal and he gives them 105 innings of 3.18 ERA ball

- Drafting Yesavage 20th overall in 2024

- Pick up Ross Stripling for cheap. He has a career season with 3 fWAR. Then the team lets him sign a landmine deal in SF that immediately blows up. 

 

They've become an organization that you just assume knows what they're doing as far as pitching is concerned. If they've been after Cease for three years it isn't because they like his FIP and WAR on Fangraphs.com. The contract isn't an overpay. Everyone else just underbid. 

Yesavage, Manoah and Fluharty in ten years of the draft is not that great. Or even good. 

However, yea the free agency signings have been truly excellent. That Gausman deal might be one of the best ever. 

We aren't really a team that changes pitchers alot imo unless they are really broken but it will be interesting to see what they do with Cease. 

[jmomcc]

11 minutes ago, Laika said:

The Jays have only missed on some of the backend SP options like Mitch White 

The contract value factoring in deferrals is also almost exactly what MLBTR predicted. 

I think it's hard to characterize this as an overpay when you consider age and focus on the actual AAV. 

Cease is one year younger than Max Fried was last offseason. Fried got 8 years at $27.25 AAV. 
Cease is getting 7 with about a $26m AAV.

Fried got that ^ after a nearly identical platform year by DIPS and fWAR. 

Fried is almost the opposite of Cease. Fried being sort of inexplicably good (analysts had a hard time understanding how he kept the ERA so low) while Cease has been inexplicably bad at ERA. 

Aaron Nola got basically this contract as an EXTENSION two years ago while sitting 92.9 mph 

Cease is only 30! 

 

I think the argument against this, and reading between the lines of fangraphs and keith law review of the trade,. they believe that Cease will almost always underplay his peripherals. That he's a guy that fip overrates consistently. So, for them Fried is a better pitcher.

[Laika]

3 minutes ago, jmomcc said:

I think the argument against this, and reading between the lines of fangraphs and keith law review of the trade,. they believe that Cease will almost always underplay his peripherals. That he's a guy that fip overrates consistently. So, for them Fried is a better pitcher.

Yeah it's tempting to say that but there is so much recency bias there, and we all know how volatile ERA is

If you look at his entire career, there isn't a huge difference. 1015.1 innings. 

3.88
3.84
3.83
3.67
3.66

That ^ is the range on his ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, xERA. 

Yes, none of those are "Ace" numbers especially considering where has pitches, San Diego and the AL Central. I do think Toronto must think they can help him be a bit better. 

[jmomcc]

5 minutes ago, Laika said:

Yeah it's tempting to say that but there is so much recency bias there, and we all know how volatile ERA is

If you look at his entire career, there isn't a huge difference. 1015.1 innings. 

3.88
3.84
3.83
3.67
3.66

That ^ is the range on his ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, xERA. 

Yes, none of those are "Ace" numbers especially considering where has pitches, San Diego and the AL Central. I do think Toronto must think they can help him be a bit better. 

Yea you would think adding just two slightly below average pitches and sequencing them would make him even better. 

[Jimcanuck]

Toronto was 4th in defensive runs saved in 2025.  That should make up for the park change.

Cease was unlucky in 2025 (.320 BABIP against vs. .295 career) and gave up an outlier # of HR.  That statistical noise should self correct on its own and let's hope Pete can unlock more effectiveness.

 

 

[L54]

I do not care about the years and the AAV coming in at 26M is honestly as good as anyone could’ve imagined 

of course there’s volatility in his profile and he will have his share of clunkers based on his history 

But he’s the type of guy you roll out in the playoffs and expect to shove for 5 or 6 innings. We got really really lucky this post season with Yesavage becoming basically Dylan Cease and Max Scherzer limping his way through two must win games 

[sliderguy35]

love the signing, i was on record a few weeks ago that i thought he was the best guy available by far (not counting trades). guys who routinely post K%-BB% rates close to 20 don't pop up very often. 

there's also merit to the BABIP regression discussion, last year Cease had a flyball rate 9% higher than league average and a BABIP 10% higher than league average (FB%+ of 109 / BABIP+ of 110).

Among the 471 qualified starting pitcher seasons, since 2016 (excluding 2020 due to sample size) only 2 other pitchers have had a BABIP+ of 110 or above and a FB%+ of 109 or above in the same year. it's extremely rare for a pitcher to give up this many flyballs & still have a high BABIP. 

 

there's reason to believe the walk rate might come down as well. there's all talk of the pete walker magic when the jays "fixed" robbie ray & eric lauer, but the reality is that both of their First-Pitch Strike %s (FPS%) went up by a significant amount which reduced their walk rates in turn. essentially every significant starting pitching acquisition by the jays in the last 5 years has had their FPS% jump upon initially joining the team (except for kikuchi, but he figured it out by year 3). it's clearly something they prioritize in the organization. 

cease is currently below average at getting first pitch strikes and pitching with count leverage (60%). the jays probably won't touch his pitching repertoire or mix at all, but i'd bet on cease getting into the ~63% range for FPS% and posting a career low walk rate as well.

 

all that being said, it just feels like there's going to be a lost season & a half somewhere over the lifespan of this contract. i'm just inherently worried about health when you're talking about pitchers getting into their 30s & throwing breaking balls in the upper 80s / low 90s, the jays have avoided major pitching injuries over the last few years, but they've also mostly avoided these kinds of high-velo breaking ball guys.

you still always do the contract since it helps you win the world series next year, you just have to hope its more in the gerrit cole / justin verlander age range where the injury happens towards the end of the deal, rather than what happened with corbin burnes / robbie ray

[G-Snarls]

2 hours ago, Governator said:

Anyone who has an issue with this deal is just being naive.  Couldn't have asked for a better start to the offseason.

Amen 

They gave him a 7th year to get the deal done early so they could move on to other needs knowing the rotation was settled 

Simple as that 

Love the aggressiveness 

 

[G-Snarls]

He's a Boras client too

So was Snell when he signed last November 

 

[ComeTogether]

 

 

[jmomcc]

1 hour ago, sliderguy35 said:

love the signing, i was on record a few weeks ago that i thought he was the best guy available by far (not counting trades). guys who routinely post K%-BB% rates close to 20 don't pop up very often. 

there's also merit to the BABIP regression discussion, last year Cease had a flyball rate 9% higher than league average and a BABIP 10% higher than league average (FB%+ of 109 / BABIP+ of 110).

Among the 471 qualified starting pitcher seasons, since 2016 (excluding 2020 due to sample size) only 2 other pitchers have had a BABIP+ of 110 or above and a FB%+ of 109 or above in the same year. it's extremely rare for a pitcher to give up this many flyballs & still have a high BABIP. 

 

there's reason to believe the walk rate might come down as well. there's all talk of the pete walker magic when the jays "fixed" robbie ray & eric lauer, but the reality is that both of their First-Pitch Strike %s (FPS%) went up by a significant amount which reduced their walk rates in turn. essentially every significant starting pitching acquisition by the jays in the last 5 years has had their FPS% jump upon initially joining the team (except for kikuchi, but he figured it out by year 3). it's clearly something they prioritize in the organization. 

cease is currently below average at getting first pitch strikes and pitching with count leverage (60%). the jays probably won't touch his pitching repertoire or mix at all, but i'd bet on cease getting into the ~63% range for FPS% and posting a career low walk rate as well.

 

all that being said, it just feels like there's going to be a lost season & a half somewhere over the lifespan of this contract. i'm just inherently worried about health when you're talking about pitchers getting into their 30s & throwing breaking balls in the upper 80s / low 90s, the jays have avoided major pitching injuries over the last few years, but they've also mostly avoided these kinds of high-velo breaking ball guys.

you still always do the contract since it helps you win the world series next year, you just have to hope its more in the gerrit cole / justin verlander age range where the injury happens towards the end of the deal, rather than what happened with corbin burnes / robbie ray

 

The fact that he hasn't done it yet might just mean he's not comfortable doing it which is fine, but i feel like obviously you want to get him down from 80% two pitches. 

The curve and the changeup look like pretty good pitches. He has them already. 

Its unfortunate he couldn't throw the cutter reliably to where he wanted to. It graded really well stuff wise. Ideally for me he would have an average 2 seam that he could throw for strikes. 

Just feels like there is a guy with 5+ war seasons in him with a better mix.