Blue Jays-Dodgers World Series Game 3 Thread: Max Scherzer vs. Tyler Glasnow

[Brownie19]

5 minutes ago, HomeRunHomer said:

I would also say the plan to pitch around Ohtani instead of just giving him the IBB was also a bad call. It's an unnecessary, telegraphed fancy play that immediately backfired. Do they really think that Ohtani is dumb enough to swing at pitches off the plate moments after you've had a mound conference? Unless he's a dumb hitter, which I've seen no evidence of,  he is going look for a mistake and park it which is exactly what he did.

That grooved fastball was something else tho LOL.

It's all hindsight man.  You obviously run the risk of making a mistake, but Ohtani strikes out 1/4 of the time - so yes, Ohtani is "dumb enough" to swing and miss at pitches off the plate.  On the season, he had a 26% chase rate (62nd percentile) and a 33.4% whiff rate (4th percentile!).  He was almost an auto out in the playoffs until the final game v. the Brewers.

Putting the tying run on base intentionally isn't some fail proof decision - especially with a guy who stole 59 bases last year.  He can be in scoring position in a blink of an eye.

The probability of him hitting a HR there isn't actually that high (7.5% of all PAs in the regular season).  We just ended up with the worst possible outcome of course.  That's baseball.

[ValiantJaysFan]

Welp I was up till 3 AM to have my heart broken. But, I'm trying to be positive. All of the Dodgers regulars basically played 18 innings last night, whereas a lot of ours only played 6 or 7, because when you're in a tight game in the World Series, always pull your best hitters before throwing a meatball down the middle to Ohtani.

But, hopefully we're fresher. We need a game that isn't close like game 1.

[max silver]

28 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

It's all hindsight man.  You obviously run the risk of making a mistake, but Ohtani strikes out 1/4 of the time - so yes, Ohtani is "dumb enough" to swing and miss at pitches off the plate.  On the season, he had a 26% chase rate (62nd percentile) and a 33.4% whiff rate (4th percentile!).  He was almost an auto out in the playoffs until the final game v. the Brewers.

Putting the tying run on base intentionally isn't some fail proof decision - especially with a guy who stole 59 bases last year.  He can be in scoring position in a blink of an eye.

The probability of him hitting a HR there isn't actually that high (7.5% of all PAs in the regular season).  We just ended up with the worst possible outcome of course.  That's baseball.

I guess someone has to play devil's advocate here and defend the manager's decision making until the cows come home, but it appears as though Schneider viewed the choice to pitch to/around Ohtani in the 7th as a mistake given the fact that he was intentionally walked in his next 4 plate appearances. The rest of the Dodgers lineup was accomplishing little for most of the game with Ohtani crushing Jays pitching at every opportunity. You can't blame the manager for Dominguez grooving a fastball down the middle but I think it's perfectly fair to criticize the decision to allow Ohtani a chance to swing the bat in the first place against a scattershot pitcher who struggles tremendously against left handed hitters.

[jaysblue]

5 hours ago, Spanky__99 said:

Barger was on 1B?

Later on in the game, Straw came up to the plate with men on. Forget which inning. f*** I'm tired haha 

[ValiantJaysFan]

2 minutes ago, max silver said:

I guess someone has to play devil's advocate here and defend the manager's decision making until the cows come home, but it appears as though Schneider viewed the choice to pitch to/around Ohtani in the 7th as a mistake given the fact that he was intentionally walked in his next 4 plate appearances. The rest of the Dodgers lineup was accomplishing little for most of the game with Ohtani crushing Jays pitching at every opportunity. You can't blame the manager for Dominguez grooving a fastball down the middle but I think it's perfectly fair to criticize the decision to allow Ohtani a chance to swing the bat in the first place against a scattershot pitcher who struggles tremendously against left handed hitters.

I was furiously looking for someone to blame for that cookie down the middle. In the moment I was pissed at Schneider thinking he made the call to pitch to him. But the call was to pitch around him and give him a chance to get himself out, and Seranthony blew it. It happens I guess. Just sucks if he'd walked him, we might be up 2-1 right now. Then again he might've stolen 2nd, or who knows how things would've change.

[Brownie19]

15 minutes ago, max silver said:

I guess someone has to play devil's advocate here and defend the manager's decision making until the cows come home, but it appears as though Schneider viewed the choice to pitch to/around Ohtani in the 7th as a mistake given the fact that he was intentionally walked in his next 4 plate appearances. The rest of the Dodgers lineup was accomplishing little for most of the game with Ohtani crushing Jays pitching at every opportunity. You can't blame the manager for Dominguez grooving a fastball down the middle but I think it's perfectly fair to criticize the decision to allow Ohtani a chance to swing the bat in the first place against a scattershot pitcher who struggles tremendously against left handed hitters.

It's a different decision to be made when you're up 1 v. tied.  It's also a different decision when you already got burnt earlier in the game.

You do need to factor in that Dominguez generally has no idea where the ball is going to go out of his hand, but he's a vet - he needs to execute better.  It seems pretty clear to me who should be blamed for that at bat.

Here's an interesting thought - maybe we don't have to blame loses on a single person?  I know that's a crazy thought around these parts. 

[SeranthonySantander]

Because of the butterfly effect, if we scored in any of those extra innings, there’s just a good a chance the dodgers score in the bottom.

And if Ser doesn’t give ohtani that homer in the 7th they could easily have won in the 8/9.

Butterfly effect 

[max silver]

3 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

It's a different decision to be made when you're up 1 v. tied.  It's also a different decision when you already got burnt earlier in the game.

You do need to factor in that Dominguez generally has no idea where the ball is going to go out of his hand, but he's a vet - he needs to execute better.  It seems pretty clear to me who should be blamed for that at bat.

Here's an interesting thought - maybe we don't have to blame loses on a single person?  I know that's a crazy thought around these parts. 

I don't recall blaming the loss on a single person at any point, but having said that Schneider made a lot of decisions that increased the likelihood of a Blue Jays loss on the biggest stage and he shouldn't be immune to criticism when warranted. This game was just like most of the Jays losses this season where there were several pivotal moments in the game that contributed including plenty of questionable decisions by the manager.

[Olerud363.354]

3 minutes ago, max silver said:

I don't recall blaming the loss on a single person at any point, but having said that Schneider made a lot of decisions that increased the likelihood of a Blue Jays loss on the biggest stage and he shouldn't be immune to criticism when warranted. This game was just like most of the Jays losses this season where there were several pivotal moments in the game that contributed including plenty of questionable decisions by the manager.

I don't think this is true. If you did in game modelling of every decision most would have increased the Jays chances of winning the next couple of innings, they just got screwed when the same decisions decreased the chances of winning the next 9 innings.  

[Laika]

2 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

I don't think this is true. If you did in game modelling of every decision most would have increased the Jays chances of winning the next couple of innings, they just got screwed when the same decisions decreased the chances of winning the next 9 innings.  

Exactly 

I don't know about the Barger-Straw one though. 

Yes, it increases their chance of scoring a bit in the top of the 8th but not astronomically. And it's a tie game so there is a decent chance it goes to the 10th or 11th and Barger comes up again. And the gulf between Barger and Straw at the plate is IMMENSE, like 50 points of wRC+ 

[Brownie19]

3 minutes ago, Laika said:

Exactly 

I don't know about the Barger-Straw one though. 

Yes, it increases their chance of scoring a bit in the top of the 8th but not astronomically. And it's a tie game so there is a decent chance it goes to the 10th or 11th and Barger comes up again. And the gulf between Barger and Straw at the plate is IMMENSE, like 50 points of wRC+ 

Yeah - that seems like the most obvious one.

[Olerud363.354]

10 minutes ago, Laika said:

I don't know about the Barger-Straw one though. 

Straw has more fWAR per inning than Barger all from base-running and defense.   Whether you believe that or not I don't know.    But probably any scenario 7th inning or later giving Straw one guaranteed base-running opportunity, potential defensive opportunities and 9th in the order favors Straw by whatever game modelling they do (where the simulated games mostly end before too many Straw at bats even if tied in 8th). 

 

 

[Jimcanuck]

4 hours ago, HomeRunHomer said:

In my opinion he protected the plate too much in that situation.  A walk was so important that striking out looking at a close pitch is a risk you can take especially when it was a lefty vs lefty match up that Lukes doesn't have power numbers against. Obviously really hard in the moment so I don't blame him that much but man that was so pivotal.

He wasn't protecting the plate.  He wanted to be the guy that wins it, just like every kid dreams on the sandlot.

[Waylanderz]

So this is the guy we have to blame for last night's Marathon... 

[gruber9292]

Of course Buck had to mention Mary Hart sitting behind the Capital One sign. 

Boner alert, but she's hot for an older woman. 

[gruber9292]

Bassitt should have just locked it down